区域轨道交通系统节点重要度及故障恢复研究

为提高区域轨道交通系统(RRTS)正常运营下的可靠性和故障情况下的弹性,分析区域轨道交通网络(RRTN)的拓扑特性,构建拓扑结构弹性评价模型,实现突发条件下系统弹性的定量评价;提出一种基于系统弹性的结构评价方法,根据节点重要度评价,识别出系统关键节点;应用弹性损失三角形,进行多种故障情况下系统最优恢复策略研究。结果表明:RRTN在Space L模型下具有无标度网络特性;系统弹性分析结合科普兰评分法,可以提高RRTS节点重要度评价的准确性;最优故障恢复策略从全局角度寻求不同恢复策略下系统弹性的最大值,优化了RRTS结构弹性和系统恢复能力。     

The concept of resilience revisited

The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of affected communities have become common features of disaster risk reduction programmes since the adoption of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues, the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the way we view and prepare for disasters.     

基于DEMATEL-ISM的城市灾害韧性影响因素研究

提高城市灾害韧性对于城市可持续发展意义重大.在确定城市灾害韧性影响因素的基础上,将DEMA-TEL(决策试验与评价实验法)与ISM(解释结构模型法)相结合,识别关键影响因素,明晰影响因素之间的作用路径与层次结构,绘制原因结果图,构建多级递阶结构模型,从而直观的呈现关键影响因素及作用路径.结果表明,城市灾害韧性影响因素可...     

乡村旅游背景下农户生计策略转变意愿研究

近年来在乡村振兴战略实施背景下,乡村旅游在发展农村经济中的作用更加凸显。促进乡村旅游的健康发展和乡村农户生计的持续改善是当前学术界讨论的重要话题。现有研究表明,可持续生计框架中客观环境影响作用是可持续旅游生计研究的热点方向,但可持续生计框架外其他主观因素对生计策略转变影响的动态定量考量却较为空缺。本研究在乡村旅游背景下探讨政府信任度对农户生计策略转变意愿影响机制,引入居民参与度、居民支持度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用,通过结构方程模型对山东省乡村旅游地进行定量分析,并对特定路径间中介作用进行比较。实证研究结果显示:①政府信任度对居民参与度和居民支持度具有正向影响,居民支持度正向影响居民参与度。②居民参与度和居民支持度均正向影响生活满意度。③生活满意度对农户生计策略转变意愿产生正向影响。这表明在居民支持度、居民参与度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用下,政府信任度对生计策略转变意愿具有间接影响。因此,为了助推乡村振兴,实现乡村旅游和农户生计的可持续,应发挥政府作用,从政策实施、旅游市场监控、完善基础设施建设等方面提高政府信任度,培养农户的主人翁意识,引导农户融入乡村旅游发展过程中,提高生活满意度,增强农户生计策略转变意愿。     

干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响

近年来草地租赁市场在牧区出现并逐渐发展。然而,作为调节牧户资源的市场制度,其对草原社会生态的影响莫衷一是。Agent-based model(ABM)是社会科学领域先进的定量分析模型,可用来模拟复杂环境中主体间的交互关系及作用结果。本文首先在理论上分析了内蒙古牧区“人-草-畜”关系,揭示了牧区社会生态的复杂性,之后在此基础上,运用ABM模拟草地租赁中“人-草-畜”关系,通过调节干旱发生概率及牧户草地出租意愿,分析干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响。为了更合理地展示和模拟牧区实际,本文结合2015—2016年内蒙古锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市的调研数据和部分文献、年报数据,对ABM中相关的参数进行设定,构建了用于模拟干旱冲击下牧区草地租赁的模型:①控制干旱概率,调节出租意愿的模型结果表明,在一定的干旱冲击下,草地租赁是一个有效的制度安排,可以缓解干旱导致的草地退化,提高牧区草场的总体生产力,并提高参与租赁户的生计水平。②控制出租意愿,调节干旱发生概率的模型结果则表明,当干旱加剧时,仅有单一的草地租赁制度无法阻止草场退化和牧户收入下降,草地生态及牧户收入仍然会受到干旱冲击的较大影响。因此,完善草地租赁市场,可在一定程度上缓解干旱冲击对草地退化的影响,提高牧户收入。但为了保障牧区社会生态的可持续性,还需发展牧业合作社和草地合作小组等其他制度。ABM可以通过对现实变量的参数化来模拟现实状况,对指导类似草原牧区等存在多个主体交互关系的社区实践具有重要作用。     

Conditions for citizen co-production in a resilient,efficient and legitimate flood risk governance arrangement. A tentative framework

Across Europe, there is an increasing trend towards citizen involvement in the implementation of flood risk governance. Policy-makers increasingly advocate co-produced flood risk governance (FRG), whereby citizens are actively engaged in the implementation of flood risk policy, for example, by taking property-level protection measures. In doing so, they aim to make FRG more resilient, efficient and legitimate [Mees, H., Crabbé, A., Alexander, M., Kaufmann, M., Bruzzone, L., Levy, L., & Lewandowski, J. (2016a). Coproducing flood risk management through citizen involvement: Insights from cross-country comparison in Europe. Ecology and Society, 21(3), 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08500-210307]. Co-production, however, also raises important questions concerning these aims. In this paper, the opportunities and limitations of and barriers to citizen co-production in FRG in terms of resilience, efficiency and legitimacy are investigated by an extensive review of literature on citizen co-production in other public services and on individual and community-based climate change adaptation and FRG. Based on this, a tentative framework is developed on the required conditions to enable co-produced FRG, which benefits both the resilience, efficiency and legitimacy of FRG.     

Informal mining in Mongolia: livelihood change and continuity in the rangelands

Change has been the leitmotif of Mongolia in recent years as the country rides on the back of a mining boom, but enormous upheavals tear apart Mongolian economic, political and social fabrics. Yet, Mongolian imagination continues to be imbued with the idea of nomadic herders, the quintessential pasture and rangeland dwellers of the steppes. The conflicting visions raise the question: “How is the livelihood of Mongolia’s nomadic herders responding to the diverse changes ushered in by the post-socialist economic reforms?” This paper investigates this question in the context of the growing artisanal and small-scale mining, which is described as informal mining, and argues that the Mongolian nomads are continually (re)adjusting their livelihoods through informal mining to cope with the variety of transitions triggered off by processes put in place by state policies. It argues that the nomadic herders are not only responding to climate change or poverty, but are also stepping up to seek a share of the mineral resource wealth that the state is promising to the international investors. The aim of the paper is to offer an alternative interpretation of the commodity rush by erstwhile rural-based nomadic herders of Mongolia, and to link their involvement in informal mining with global debates of political economy.     

Speed or deliberation: a comparison of post‐disaster recovery in Japan,Turkey, and Chile

This paper compares recovery in the wake of three recent earthquakes: the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011; the Van earthquake in Turkey in October 2011; and the Maule earthquake in Chile in February 2010. The authors visited all three locations approximately 12–18 months after the incidents and interviewed earthquake specialists, disaster managers, urban planners, and local authorities. A key challenge to post‐disaster recovery planning is balancing speed and deliberation. While affected communities must rebuild as quickly as possible, they must also seek to maximise the opportunities for improvement that disasters provide. The three case studies bring this dilemma into stark relief, as recovery was respectively slow, fast, and just right in the aftermath of the events: the Government of Japan adopted a deliberate approach to recovery and reconstruction; speed was of the essence in Turkey; and an effective balance between speed and deliberation was achieved in Chile.     

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policy-makers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.     

社会-生态系统概念性框架研究综述

人与自然的矛盾已成为全球性问题,可持续发展理论把人类对于生存与环境的认识推向了一个新的境界。近年来,以社会-生态系统作为研究对象,成为了可持续发展和全球变化研究的一个新视角。在社会-生态系统的概念性框架下,本文对社会-生态系统的动态运行机制和属性进行了详细的综述。社会-生态系统是复杂适应性系统,受自身和外界干扰的影响,具有不可预期性、自组织、非线性、多样性、多稳态等特点。适应性循环是一个启发性模型,有助于理解复杂系统的动态运行机制。恢复力、适应力和转化力是社会-生态系统的三个主要属性。并对社会-生态系统理论研究中面临的问题进行了展望,提出了在以后研究中可以适用的研究方法。