Drought risk reduction through a Socio-economic,Institutional and Physical approach in the northwestern region of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, drought is seasonal and can destroy crops, causing hardship to poor agricultural labourers and others who cannot find alternative sources of income. Droughts most commonly affect the northwestern region, which generally has less rainfall than the rest of the country. In this context, this study attempts to measure the existing level of drought resilience with indicators related to Socio-economic, Institutional and Physical (SIP) conditions in two of the most drought-prone districts, namely Rajshahi and Chapai-Nawabganj. The results of 14 sub-districts (upazilas) show a variation of 2.41 (lowest resilience) and 3.61 (highest resilience) in a scale of 1–5. Some of the critical areas that need improvement include education and awareness, conflict resolution on water usage, policy enhancement, coordination among different stakeholders and proper land-use pattern. SIP methodology can be used as a rapid planning tool at the district level, and as a micro-level planning and improvement tool at the sub-district level. The tool has potential application for a participatory and process-based approach of engaging local stakeholders in minimizing drought risks in future.     

系统安全韧性的塑造与评估建模

为完善安全系统学理论体系,立足于理论思辨层面,基于韧性科学和安全系统学,提出安全韧性的定义,并解析其内涵,论述其研究意义。基于此,从3个维度构建系统安全韧性塑造体系的概念模型,并对其进行扼要阐释;深入剖析系统安全韧性塑造体系的作用机理,并构建其作用模型。基于系统安全韧性曲线,构建系统安全韧性评估的数学模型,并进行系统安全韧性曲线的对比分析。研究结果可为安全系统学研究提供新思路和新方法,系统安全韧性是安全系统学和韧性科学交叉领域一个值得关注的重要范式。     

Technological change and fisheries sustainability: The point of view of Adaptive Dynamics

The analysis of a simple model shows that exploitation of fish stocks can entrain in the long run the substantial decline or even the collapse of the stock, as well as difficulties in stock recovery, loss of fishery resilience, and reduction of the mean fish size. The results are in agreement with numerous observations, even though they are obtained with a simple model in which the harvesting fleet and the fish stock are considered as unstructured predator and prey. The study is carried out for the typical case of fleet dimension not too sensitive to the year-to-year fluctuations of the stock and assuming that the sole cause of evolution is technological innovation. The analysis is performed by means of Adaptive Dynamics, an approach born in theoretical biology which is used here in the context of technological change. Although the results are qualitatively consistent with those obtained long ago through the principles of bioeconomics, it is fair to stress that the underlying assumptions are different. In fact, in the bioeconomic approach fleet technology does not evolve and fishing effort varies to produce economic optimization, while in the Adaptive Dynamics approach technological innovation is the key driver. The paper is purely theoretical and the proposed model can hardly be tuned on any real fishery. No practical guidelines for managers can therefore be drawn, if not the general conclusion that long-term sustainability of exploited fish stocks can only be achieved if strategic parameters influencing technological change are kept under strict control.     

Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the faldas in Ecuador

Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue. Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socio-economic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses. Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments.     

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.     

Multiscale Methodological Framework to Derive Criteria and Indicators for Sustainability Evaluation of Peasant Natural Resource Management Systems

Design and implementation of more sustainable natural resource management systems is the current objective of many research institutions, development agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders. But, how to assess whether a system is sustainable? How do we know whether the alternatives designed will increase the sustainability of the system? How to evaluate or assess the sustainability of natural resource management systems?In this paper we present a multiscale methodological framework for sustainability evaluation. The framework is based on a systems approach from which five general attributes of sustainable natural resource management systems are defined based on scale- and discipline-independent properties (productivity, stability, resilience, reliability and adaptability).A general operational strategy to derive ‘site-specific’ criteria and indicators for the attributes at different scales is also presented. This strategy is based on the definition of ‘impact scales’, at which the different stakeholders can or want to design alternatives, as well as the main stakeholders’ objectives and constraints. The application of the multiscale framework is illustrated with a case study in the Purhepecha Region of Michoacán, a peasant mountainous region in the west of Mexico. We used stakeholder consultation to identify the main objectives and constraints as well as to select criteria and indicators. The sets of criteria and indicators suggested for the different scales of analysis of the Purhepecha Region are comprehensive, yet not exhaustive, and represent the main issues related to natural resource management in the region. Further work will be directed towards the quantification of indicators at different scales and their relationships and trade-offs.     

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.

轮作休耕对劳动力转移的影响——以河北、甘肃、云南三省为例

近年来,中国耕地的不合理利用引发了一系列严重的问题,为此国家提出“探索实行耕地轮作休耕制度试点”这一重要举措。劳动力是农业的主要生产要素,归纳总结农户休耕和劳动力转移的情况,准确掌握休耕面积对劳动力转移产生的影响,对进一步推动国家轮作休耕政策、现代化发展和城镇化具有重要的战略意义。基于此,利用河北、甘肃、云南三省六县1542户农户家庭的相关调研数据,对农户休耕、劳动力转移等情况进行了分析,并运用Tobit回归模型定量分析农户休耕面积对劳动力转移数量的影响。研究结果表明：（1）研究区内农户休耕比例与户均休耕面积存在差异,且休耕比例与户均休耕面积大小均为甘肃省>云南省>河北省。（2）研究区内有62.97%的家庭存在劳动力转移现象,且休耕农户劳动力转移数量远超未休耕农户。（3）核心变量休耕面积对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响;控制变量中,农户家庭总人口、户主性别、劳动力受教育水平、医疗支出、住宅距公路距离和劳均工资对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响,而家庭抚养比则对劳动力转移存在显著的负向影响。     

城市韧性与科技创新耦合协调发展研究——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例

以成渝地区双城经济圈为空间载体,运用熵值法、重心模型和修正耦合协调度模型等方法,分析了2005—2019年成渝地区双城经济圈城市韧性与科技创新的发展水平、重心变动特征及耦合协调发展水平。结果表明:①城市韧性和科技创新的发展水平均呈稳步提升态势,但整体发展水平较低。②城市韧性与科技创新的重心经历了复杂的迁移过程,且二者重心的空间叠置性显著上升,迁移方向基本趋于一致,空间耦合趋势明显。③城市韧性与科技创新的耦合协调水平稳步提升,但整体仍处于失调阶段,总体呈“成都、重庆双核高,周边低”的空间分布格局,且科技创新滞后现象日益突出。     

海上石油平台工艺区风环境模拟及韧性评估*

为研究不同风向下海上石油平台工艺区的风场特征和系统韧性,采用Fluent软件从8种不同风向角度对海上平台工艺区风环境进行三维数值模拟,分析研究高于工艺区地面1.5,3,4.5 m水平风场风速分布特征,确定微静风区和强风速区面积,并以微静风区域占比为指标评估系统抗灾韧性。研究结果表明:风速激增区出现在障碍物前缘或侧翼;风口顺延形成强风道,风速介于1.6～3.1 m/s之间;系统韧性与微静风区占比呈现负相关,在1.5 m高度风场处,E-90°风向时微静风区域面积占比约为69%,工艺系统韧性较弱,风险较大;NW-315°风向时微静风区域面积占比约为9.6%,工艺系统韧性较强,风险较小;随着风场高度增大,各个风向系统韧性均有所提高,W-270°风向时系统韧性升幅达12.1%,N-0°风向时系统韧性升幅达12.24%。研究结果可为海上石油平台逃生路线设计、火气监控设备布置及提高平台自身抗灾韧性方面提供指导依据。