城市韧性与科技创新耦合协调发展研究——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例

以成渝地区双城经济圈为空间载体,运用熵值法、重心模型和修正耦合协调度模型等方法,分析了2005—2019年成渝地区双城经济圈城市韧性与科技创新的发展水平、重心变动特征及耦合协调发展水平。结果表明:①城市韧性和科技创新的发展水平均呈稳步提升态势,但整体发展水平较低。②城市韧性与科技创新的重心经历了复杂的迁移过程,且二者重心的空间叠置性显著上升,迁移方向基本趋于一致,空间耦合趋势明显。③城市韧性与科技创新的耦合协调水平稳步提升,但整体仍处于失调阶段,总体呈“成都、重庆双核高,周边低”的空间分布格局,且科技创新滞后现象日益突出。     

地震灾害下城市关键基础设施毁伤恢复力评估方法

为提高地震灾害后城市关键基础设施恢复力评估准确性,该文提出城市关键基础设施毁伤恢复力评估方法.分析城市关键基础设施在地震灾害中的响应特征,确定基础设施毁伤程度与地震灾害等级之间的关系;收集地震灾害信息,检测地震灾害等级,以此作为毁伤恢复力评估的重要指标;另外,结合毁伤恢复力的其他影响因素分析结果,构建恢复力评价指标体系...     

祁连山自然保护区生态承载力分析与评价

以层次分析法和模糊模式识别为基础,建立生态承载力综合评价模型,重点分析祁连山自然保护区森林、草地和农田3种受人类活动干扰最强烈的生态系统的生态承载力和生态荷载,在此基础上进一步分析整个保护区的总体生态承载力和生态荷载。结果显示,祁连山区域生态系统已经受到人类活动的强烈干扰,生态荷载总体处于严重超载状态。但区域生态系统内部各子系统之间以及生态荷载的空间分布存在差异。其中,森林子系统和草地子系统属于严重超载,农田子系统属于中度超载;在总体生态荷载的空间分布上,西北部地区比东南部地区超载更为严重;就各子系统的生态荷载状况而言,森林子系统和草地子系统的超载程度均表现为东南部地区略低于西北部地区,但农田子系统东南部地区超载程度高于西北部地区。     

大别山革命老区旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性演化规律及影响机制

探讨旅游地“乡土—生态”系统演化,为理解人地关系地域系统结构与功能演变提供了新思路。通过构建“乡土—生态”系统韧性评价体系,解析2005—2019年大别山革命老区旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性的演化阶段、过程、路径及机制。结果显示：（1）研究区旅游地“乡土—生态”系统经历了利用、保存、释放、重组适应性循环过程,分别对应旅游地迅速发展期（2005—2009年）、发展成熟期（2010—2012年）、发展过渡期（2013—2016年）和再发展初期（2017—2019年）。（2）在适应性循环过程中研究区县域的数量结构经历了以“较低水平韧性为主→高水平韧性为主”的转变,县域“乡土—生态”系统韧性水平呈波动上升趋势。（3）2005—2019年研究区旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性演化的驱动因子由经济层面转向社会文化层面。在内外源因素的作用下,旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性通过乡土资源禀赋（向心凝聚力）、经济发展基础（核心推动力）、社会保障功能（重要支撑力）和自然环境本底（基础约束力）的四维驱动,以人的行为为媒介在相互作用和掣肘中演进,当韧性指数超过阈值时其内核组织将打破原有边界、自我调适实现“路径突破”,进入下一阶段适应性循环,以此促进旅游地的可持续发展。     

平江县生态弹性度定量分析评价研究

根据生态弹性力的概念,体会其深刻内涵及意义,根据区域实际情况,科学合理的构建平江县生态系统弹性力评价指标体系,运用综合评价的方法计算分析平江县生态系统弹性力,结果显示从2008年至2013年间,平江县生态系统弹性力呈下降趋势,主要原因是水资源总量下降,并对之后生态系统可持续发展和经济发展提出建议.     

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.     

专用滚压成形设备设计中主要技术分析

介绍了专用滚压成形设备中滚轮及升降装置的设计 ,分析了其技术特点及可行性。     

Sudden-onset disaster resilience considering functionality improvement planning: An upstream oil and gas company

The present paper presents a quantitative approach to evaluate organizational resilience in sudden-onset disasters considering preparedness actions (PAs). The resilience triangle concept is extended and gradual improvement of the level of functionality (LF) strategy is examined as PAs. Robustness and rapidity measures are considered as loss of LF and recovery time to indicate the overall disaster resilience. Besides, the resourcefulness and redundancy measures are considered pre-determined response plans and PAs aimed to improve disaster resilience. Two mathematical models are developed by applying these measures. Thereafter, graphical analytics are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of PAs and provide a better outlook for decision-makers. Then, mathematical analyses are conducted to show how the PAs affect resilience measures. It is mathematically proved that PAs exert considerable impacts on recovery time, loss of LF, and robustness. To illustrate the application of the proposed approach, it is applied to an upstream oil and gas company in the field of exploration and production. The results suggest that the approach is significantly effective in disaster response, planning, and mitigation.