Climate Change in Southern and Eastern Africa During the Past Millennium and its Implications for Societal Development

Climatic records from equatorial eastern Africa and subtropical southern Africa have shown that both temperature and the amount of rainfall have varied over the past millennium. Moreover, the rainfall pattern in these regions varied inversely over long periods of time. Droughts started abruptly, were of multi-decadal to multi-centennial length and the changes in the hydrological budget were of large amplitude. Changing water resources in semi-arid regions clearly must have regional influences on both ecological and socio-economic processes. Through a detailed analysis of the historical and paleoclimatic evidence from southern and eastern Africa covering the past millennium it is shown that, depending on the vulnerability of a society, climatic variability can have an immense impact on societies, sometimes positive and sometimes disastrous. Therefore, the interconnected issue of world ecosystem and social resilience is the challenge for decision-makers if sustainable development is to be reached on global and local levels.     

湿地退耕还湿与替代生计选择的农民响应研究——以三江自然保护区为例

通过对三江自然保护区核心区内6个村屯和实验区内5个村屯的310家农户家庭就退耕还湿和替代生计选择的问卷调查分析发现,在退耕还湿问题上,不同区域位置、年龄结构和耕地拥有量决定了他们对退耕还湿支持意愿的不同,表现在实验区内的农民和农民中的年轻人支持率要高,耕地在6~12hm²之间的农民支持率最低;农民反对退耕还湿的原因和农民接受退耕还湿的补偿选择都凝结着农民对现有耕地及补偿制度的思考。在替代生计选择上,当地居民没有明确的目标,多倾向于有保障的种植业调整。研究表明:农民对退耕还湿的支持主要取决于能否保证自身的经济利益,并且与农民的收入来源和谋生能力有关;替代生计发展的不健全和不稳定,使得农民仍把土地作为重要的生活保障。缺乏明确的退耕还湿补偿制度和替代生计引导是退耕还湿实施的制度障碍和政策缺失;基于当地农民考虑,提出了核心区生态移民、缓冲区传统农业改造和实验区多元化产业发展总体替代生计模式。     

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the safety management in Italian Seveso industries

The paper discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian chemical and process industries, where Directive 2012/18/EU Seveso III, for the control of Major Accident Hazard (MAH), is enforced. The Safety Management System (SMS) for the control of MAH, which has been mandatory for 20 years in Italian Seveso Establishments, has been highly stressed by the external pressure, related in some way to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fairly, most companies, in particular in oil and gas sectors, have demonstrated an adequate capability to reconcile operation continuity and health requirements. This experience is providing the establishment operators and the regulators with valuable suggestions for the improvements of the SMS-MAH. Within this framework, an innovative organisational resilience model is proposed, aiming at the development of a higher capability to face future new crisis. The current SMS-MAH already includes some basic pillars to enhance resilience, which were valuable during the pandemic crisis, but a full and rationale development is still needed. Starting from the first pandemic phase experience, this paper presents a novel tool to assess the degree of “resilience” of a SMS-MAH. It is based on a questionnaire, featuring 25 questions grouped into eight items, according to the typical SMS-MAH structure. A two level AHP model has been developed in order to define the weights to be assigned to each point. The AHP panel included industrial practitioners, regulators, authorities and researchers. The results are based on the COVID-19 experience and consequently the developed model is tailored to face health emergencies, but the approach may be easily transferred to other external crises.     

地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估及优化研究

为提升城市供水网络应对地震灾害的能力,基于性能响应函数(PRF)方法,引入基础设施网络均衡理论,设计综合考虑城市供水网络物理状态和输送能力的性能时程响应函数,构建贯穿结构和功能双维度的地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估方法;从灾害概率、灾害后果、恢复速度、恢复程度等4个关键因素出发,提出城市供水网络网状扩张、管道延性改造、增加恢复资源和提升恢复储备等韧性优化策略;以我国华东某市供水网络为例,定量评估不同优化策略下的韧性提升效果,提出不同决策场景下恢复资源r和恢复储备b的优化配置方法。结果表明:管网延性改造是提升供水网络韧性的有效措施,网状扩张能提升供水网络性能,但对韧性提升无明显作用,网状扩张后要注意增加网络恢复资源和恢复储备。     

FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009.Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures.The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated.Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system.The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.     

经济韧性与经济高质量发展的关系研究——以长三角地区26个地级市为例

基于熵值法测算得到经济韧性指数和经济高质量发展指数,运用耦合协调模型和多种面板回归模型探究我国长三角城市群经济韧性与经济高质量发展之间的协同关系和影响效应。结果表明:①长三角城市经济韧性和经济高质量发展水平不断提升,表现出"核心—边缘"的空间格局。②二者协同关系呈现稳中有升态势,但核心城市和边缘城市的相对差异逐渐扩大。③经济韧性显著促进经济高质量发展,边缘地区经济韧性对经济质量的作用效果更强。因此,长三角地区要充分发挥中心城市的辐射作用,加强城市内外产业联动发展,以推动经济稳定持续的高质量发展。     

From disaster management to adaptive governance? Governance challenges to achieving resilient food systems in Australia

Building resilient food systems in the context of climate change and increased natural disasters depends on governance being more ‘adaptive’. Through a case study of events surrounding the extensive flooding that occurred in Queensland, Australia, in 2011, this paper examines how governance settings and processes affected food system actors’ engagement with three aspects of adaptive governance – responsibility, participation and collaboration – as those actors sought to ensure food availability and access during the crisis. We found that, despite the existence of formal governance instruments committed to disaster management, food security and resilience at local, state and national levels, responsibilities for ensuring food supply during a disaster were not clearly articulated. Responsibility was largely assumed by supermarkets, who in turn increased the influence of retailer–government coalitions. The participation of non-supermarket food system actors in governance was low, and there was limited collaboration between local, and other, levels of governance. The policy challenge is to ensure that responsibility, participation and collaboration become a stronger foci for adaptive governance during and after a disaster such as flooding.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.     

农户家庭生计禀赋对农地流转的影响——以湖北省不同类型功能区为例

论文以湖北武汉、孝感为实证,构建农户家庭生计禀赋衡量体系,运用Logit模型分析不同类型功能区农户生计禀赋对农地流转的影响。研究表明：1）重点开发区农户已参与农地流转的比例（48.38%）及未来愿意参与农地流转的比例（61.99%）相对较高,且流转程序较规范;农产品主产区农户农地流转参与率（46.72%）相对较高,但农户农地依赖程度高,未来愿意参与农地流转的比例（38.61%）相对最低;生态功能区资源环境承载能力较低、农业生产条件差,农地流转实际比例较低（31.82%）,但受农业种植低利益及非农产业高回报的诱导,受访农民未来流转意愿（45.87%）较强烈。2）自然资产及物质资产对农户参与农地流转行为影响较大,目前承包耕地面积大的农户转出农地的概率较大,而经营耕地面积大和拥有生产性工具多的农户转入耕地的概率较大。3）人力资产、自然资产、物质资产、金融资产及社会资产的差异会使农地流转后农民生存风险不同,从而对农户未来参与农地流转意愿影响显著。家庭整体劳动能力、家庭承包耕地面积、实际经营耕地面积、农地机耕条件、家庭拥有生产性工具、拥有耐用消费品数量及人情开支均对农户转入农地意愿产生正向影响;同时,家庭承包耕地面积的增加、农地交通条件及景观环境改善能够增加农户的农地转出意愿。     

Rain forest dwellers' livelihoods: income generation,household wealth and NTFP sales,a case study from Xishuangbanna,SW China

Through annual in-depth household questionnaire interviews of 60% of households in Daka and Baka villages from 1998 to 2004, we explored wealth-related differences and similarities in the sale of NTFPs of tropical rain forest fringe dwellers in Xishuangbanna, SW China. Contribution of different NTFPs to cash income and different seasonal access to NTFPs between Baka and Daka were analysed. There were significant differences in income and role of NTFPs per household between Baka and Daka related to different access to: NTFPs in forests, labour and market sales in different seasons. In Baka, the ranking of NTFP income was: fungi, wild vegetables, bamboo shoot in 2000 and 2001. Differences in gender and generational involvement in NTFP sales was also examined. For example, households without a son, as well as those with a female householder depended more on income from NTFPs and less on income from rubber than other households. Resource use patterns between relatively wealthy and poor households were also analysed. Wealthy households sold 2.50 ± 0.50 types while poor households sold 2.08 ± 0.26 NTFPs. The Gini coefficient of gross income per household for Baka in recent years was 0.393, increasing to 0.414 without NTFPs. The Gini coefficient of gross income for Daka in recent years was 0.291, increasing to 0.292 without NTFPs, showing the different role of NTFPs in mitigating wealth inequality in the two villages.