How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

A methodology for assessment of long-term exposure to whole-body vibrations in vehicle drivers to propose preventive safety measures

Introduction: The appearance of musculoskeletal disorders (MDs) in professional drivers due to exposition to whole-body vibration (WBV) makes it relevant to assess this exposure. The European Directive 2002/44/EC has two methods to evaluate exposure to WBV (defined in ISO2631-1:2008). These methods evaluate the exposure associated with an 8-hour working day; however, MDs due to WBV could also be caused by accumulated exposure to vibrations over long term, and hence, the methods defined in the European directive may be limited in their ability to ensure the safety of workers exposed to WBV throughout their years of employment. Method: A detailed comparison and discussion of methods defined in the European Directive and the ISO2631-5:2018 was used as a starting point of the main results of this paper. On this basis, a new methodology for the management and organization of preventive measures is proposed to consider the assessment of ISO2631-5:2018 standard and the full working life of workers. Experimental data to assess exposure to WBV in heavy equipment vehicle (HEV) drivers under different road surface conditions and range of velocities were considered to illustrate the process of the proposed methodology. Results: The methods defined in the standards provide different assessments leading to a different possible consideration of safe operations when the risks associated with them may actually be high. The proposed methodology can be used with the aim of ensuring safety of workers throughout their working lives and providing an easy implementation of the calculations of ISO2631-5:2018 standard. Conclusions: A procedure to assess the health risk probability to which the HEV worker is exposed in terms of the exposure years and a different range of operational vehicle speeds is proposed and exemplified with a study case. Practical applications: This study provides a practical tool for the management of WBV exposure related to work-tasks in HEV drivers. Safety managers should consider the global exposition to WBV throughout their working life, and this research provides an easy tool to accomplish it.     

Environmental change of coastal Sundarbans: Impact on livelihood and standard of living status of indigenous people

There is overwhelming scientific consensus that environmental change is currently having ecological and socioeconomical impacts at the micro and macrolevel. Over the coming decades, the impact of development, climate change, and urbanization on the ecosystem is likely to become even more ruthless in the Sundarbans. Like many other ecologically sensitive areas, the Sundarbans of the Indian state of West Bengal and of Bangladesh are being stressed climatically to the extreme due to their geographical location. This study explores both the ways in which residents of communities in the West Bengal and Bangladesh Sundarbans perceive changes in the environment, as well as intergenerational changes in livelihoods to be driven in a large part by environmental changes. Persons from a total of 368 households were interviewed using a structured interview tool. As an example of differences in perception between residents of the two areas, survey respondents from communities of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh were more likely to perceive that rainfall amounts are changing than did the residents interviewed from the Sundarbans of West Bengal. From the sample data, it is shown that in the Sundarbans of Bangladesh, 59% of the respondents, as compared to 63% of the respondents in West Bengal, reported that they had chosen to enter their parents’ occupations. From the multivariate logistic regression analysis, it was observed that, especially in Bangladesh when compared to West Bengal, the state of the environment plays a vital role in whether respondents adopt occupations other than those of their parents.     

Precarious work or sustainable livelihoods? Aligning Prestea's Programme with the development dialogue on artisanal and small‐scale mining

Alternative livelihoods programmes (ALPs) are extensively executed in mining communities, often as models of development dialogue on artisanal and small‐scale mining (ASM). This paper assesses whether Prestea's ALP aligns with the development dialogue on artisanal mining. The conceptual design of ALP in Ghana's Prestea is based on the notions of substitution, homogenous community, and impact scalability. This paper argues that the Prestea ALP is not aligned with the development dialogue on artisanal mining, and therefore it is difficult to understand the role and function of environmentally‐damaging behaviours within livelihood strategies. The paper contends that it would be appropriate to concentrate on improving the existing artisanal miners’ operation of those most susceptible to resource access restrictions. Further, it may be more prudent to utilize livelihood‐centered interventions that create strong connections with sustainable development as a way of creating regular community engagements. Additionally, this paper argues that the term for the intervention programme on artisanal mining should be replaced with the broader term ‘livelihood‐centered intervention’. The replacement of the term ‘ALP’ avoids the tacit belief that ALP can adequately replace artisanal mining operations. Livelihood‐centered intervention should not necessarily utilize alternative livelihoods as direct behavioural change instruments.     

A double‐edged sword: Realities of artisanal and small‐scale mining for rural people in the Alaotra region of Madagascar

A growing number of people are entering the artisanal and small‐scale mining (ASM) sector worldwide. In Madagascar, millions of individuals depend on this informal activity. Through a case study in the Alaotra‐Mangoro region of Madagascar, our research aimed to understand the “bottom‐up” dynamics and ripple effects of the sector, by looking at the realities for rural communities where inhabitants are both directly and indirectly affected by ASM. We were interested in community members' and miners' perceptions of the socio‐economic and environmental impacts of ASM, and in identifying the factors attracting people living in one of the country's agricultural hubs to this activity. Our results show a wide diversity of push and pull factors leading people to enter the sector. Although many positive impacts of ASM exist for miners and communities within the vicinity of mines, most miner participants considered themselves worse off since starting to mine, highlighting the high risk and low probability of return of ASM. ASM's potential for local and national development will remain squandered if its negative impacts continue to go unmanaged. Accounting for local contexts and the ripple effects of ASM will be crucial in achieving safety and security for miners, and to tap into the benefits it may offer communities while minimising environmental damage.     

Prioritising development planning in the Indian semi-arid Deccan using sustainable livelihood security index approach

This paper presents the status of sustainable livelihood security index (SLSI) of Karnataka, the most drought prone state in the Southern part of India. Computation of ecological security index, economic efficiency index and social equity index, and finally SLSI were carried out at the district level for the entire state, using empirical data. The selected indicators were first normalised, and then using estimated weights, indices were computed. The results indicate that the state has a very low SLSI with only 27.6% of total geographical area (TGA) and 21.7% of population being placed in the ‘sustainable’ and ‘highly sustainable’ categories (covering 10 districts) while only 34% of the TGA covering six districts falls in the ‘moderately sustainable’ category. The remaining area, confined mostly to the northern parts of the state, comprising 14 districts (51.8% of the state’s TGA) is categorised as ‘less sustainable’ and ‘very less sustainable’ exposing 44.4% (27.14 million) of state’s population to the perils of uncertain rainfall, high soil erosion rates, high social inequality and poor resource use efficiency. There is an urgent need to reorient development programmes and prioritise development investments in these vulnerable districts so that they are provided resources and opportunities to improve their ecological (more forest cover and less soil erosion), economic (higher agricultural productivity) and social (improved health and education facilities and rural infrastructure) status and achieve sustainable levels of livelihood.     

Development of an indirect-cost calculation model suitable for workplace use

Introduction: Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) stakeholders rarely factor the cost of workplace accidents into prevention spending decisions. The lack of consideration of this key information is related to the fact that the scientific literature has failed to provide OHS stakeholders with a cost-calculation tool that is both sufficiently accurate and does not require a data-collection stage ill-suited to the time constraints of workplace decision-makers. Method: This study reviews the recent literature to identify key elements that should foster the use of indirect-cost calculation methods by decision makers. Results: A “local” approach currently appears to be the best method for calculating indirect costs of workplace incidents or accidents in comparison to “bottom-up” or “top-down” approach. This paper discusses four criteria that this type of approach must satisfy to be compatible with the time constraints and accuracy demands of OHS stakeholders in organizations. In addition, four bases for the development of a new indirect cost estimation model are presented and discussed. Impact on industry: this study provides bases and criteria to help the development of indirect-cost calculation models better suited to workplace use than those currently available.     

Children and the Sphere standard on mental and social aspects of health

Most of the world's children live in resource-poor countries where people are at a relatively high risk of exposure to catastrophic situations arising from conflict and natural disasters.(6) Given the potential social, psychological and psychiatric consequences of exposure to disaster, mental health and psychosocial support programmes are increasingly part of humanitarian aid. A minimum standard on mental and social aspects of health is included in the recently revised Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response (Sphere Handbook) (Sphere Project, 2004). Most recommendations for mental health and psychosocial interventions in guidance documents are based on expert opinion rather than research. Consequently, interventions are being implemented without full understanding of their potential benefit or harm. This paper offers a child-focused review of the evidence for each of the interventions described as indicators for the Sphere standard on mental and social aspects of health. It suggests some, but limited, support for each of them. However, the evidence base needs substantial strengthening.     

Using hydrochemical signatures to characterize the long-period evolution of groundwater information in the Dagu River Basin,China

• The long-period groundwater evolution was identified by hydrochemical signatures. • The dominant processes in the groundwater evolution were verified. • Groundwater quality in the coastal areas was susceptible to deterioration due to SI. • Groundwater contamination arose from fertilizer, livestock manure & domestic sewage. The evolution of hydrochemical compositions influenced by long-period interactions between groundwater and the geo-environment is a fundamental issue for exploring groundwater quality and vulnerability. This study systematically investigated the hydrochemical processes and anthropogenic interference occurring in the river basin by bivariate plots, Gibbs diagrams, saturation index, and the major ions ratios. Apparent changes in groundwater hydrochemistry have been observed in the study area, illustrating the origins of major ions are affected by various internal and external factors. Results highlighted that TDS varied from freshwater to brackish water, ranging between 187.90 and 2294.81 mg/L. Ca²⁺ and HCO₃⁻ are the dominant ions in the studied samples. The results gained by Gibbs diagrams, bivariate plots, saturation index, and the major ions ratios demonstrated that minerals dissolution/precipitation, cation exchange, and human inputs play crucial roles in the unconfined aquifers. Moreover, the overuse of nitrogen fertilizer, livestock manure, and industrial/domestic sewage led to nitrate and nitrite contamination and brought significant challenges to the surrounding hydrogeo-environment. The present study could make an unambiguous identification of natural processes and anthropogenic interventions influencing groundwater hydrochemistry’s long-period evolution and create a preliminary strategy for groundwater resources management.