城市埋地天然气管道系统脆弱性评估指标研究

脆弱性作为安全领域研究的新兴名词,用来表示系统承受外界扰动的敏感性和易损性以及面对灾害后果的承受力和应对能力,是联系灾害与风险研究的重要桥梁,是系统安全状况的重要综合指标。文章在引用以及重新界定＂脆弱性＂概念的基础上,将其引入城市天然气管道系统的安全研究,结合城市天然气管道系统的灾害事故特点,分析影响城市埋地天然气管道系统脆弱性的主要因素,根据因素间的相互关系,建立包括致灾因子、灾害后果和应对措施等3个方面2、2项指标的多因素多级评价指标体系。运用层次分析法（AHP）的原理和计算过程确定各评价指标的权重,根据指标权重的大小比较,分析各指标对城市天然气管道系统安全脆弱性的影响程度,从而确定安全治理的主要方向。     

Marine gold and atoll livelihoods: The rise and fall of the bêche‐de‐mer trade on Ontong Java,Solomon Islands

The rise and fall of the bêche‐de‐mer trade in Solomon Islands is an example of how small, remote island communities are influenced by drivers of change on both the national and international scales. This susceptibility leads to local economic collapses and changed livelihoods. This article focuses on small‐island livelihoods, socio‐economic responses to fluctuating markets and the instability caused by internal and external forces of change. Quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews and participant observation have been used to explore the development trajectories of Ontong Java, a Polynesian outlier in Solomon Islands, in the context of the bêche‐de‐mer trade over the past forty years. The main findings can be captured in four distinct periods that demonstrate the transformation of this atoll community from subsistence‐oriented strategies to specialization in marine resource extraction to economic collapse and return to subsistence. It is concluded that this atoll population has shown a remarkable ability to adjust and cope with processes of globalization.     

基于汶川地震的地震人员伤亡预测模型研究

地震发生以后及时掌握人员伤亡情况对灾后救援具有重要作用,因此,建立地震人员伤亡预测模型是极为重要的。以2008年汶川地震人员伤亡数据及房屋破坏面积数据为基础,运用线性回归分析方法模拟出地震人员伤亡预测模型。该函数模型是以建筑物的易损性为自变量,分别以死亡人数、受伤人数为因变量构建的。同时对回归模型进行误差分析,并参考前人模型可知房屋内人口密度和地震发生时间2个因素对模型有很大影响,进而对回归系数进行调整。最后利用文中模型和其他几种预测模型分别对汶川地震和玉树地震进行验证,并与地震实际伤亡结果进行比较,证明研究的模型的准确性和适用性。     

重要基础设施脆弱性计算理论

为了给重要基础设施的保护提供决策理论支持,基于重要基础设施保护中出现的安全问题,在综述脆弱性概念的发展基础上,提出脆弱性的一种可操作性概念,并将重要基础设施保护中的脆弱性分为2类:一类为保护方面的脆弱性,一类为响应方面的脆弱性。在此基础上研究了综合脆弱性的数学表达式,提出了重要基础设施综合脆弱性的评价程序,该评价程序可以应用于重要基础设施的防灾减灾研究中。     

Vulnerability to typhoon hazards in the coastal informal settlements of Metro Manila,the Philippines

In many low‐ and middle‐income countries informal communities—also termed slum and squatter areas—have become a dominant and distinct form of urban settlement, with ever increasing populations. Such communities are often located in areas of high hazard exposure and frequently affected by disasters. While often recognised as one of the highest ‘at risk’ populations, this paper will argue that informal settlers have been directly and indirectly excluded from many formal mechanisms, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disaster events. Household surveys were conducted across several frequently flooded informal coastal communities in Metro Manila, the Philippines, following a major typhoon and storm surge disaster. The study revealed a large level of diversity in socio‐economic vulnerability, although all households faced similar levels of physical exposure and physical vulnerability. Disaster risk reduction policies and responses need to better integrate informal settlement areas and recognise the diversity within these communities.     

Is there a trade-off between households’ precautions,mitigations and public protection for flood risk?

This paper evaluates willingness-to-pay (WTP) for flood insurance and floodgate installation in Tainan, Taiwan, and finds that household flood precaution (observing the water level) has a minor effect in terms of increasing the WTP for flood insurance, rather than decreasing it. The reason for this is that people who have public flood protection nearby do not lower their WTP for floodgate and insurance, and those who live near the water source of floods and exhibit precautionary behavior have higher risk perceptions and intend to pay more. The adopted mitigation (having sandbags or other barriers) will not affect the intention to further mitigate or buy insurance. This also means that adverse selection in relation to flood insurance is not serious in the flood-prone area of Tainan. Households may be aware of the limitation of public flood protection though the precautionary behavior, and found that flood insurance can compensate for most of the flood damage.     

脱贫山区农户生计转型的低碳效应研究：以陇南山区为例

明确脱贫山区农户生计转型的低碳效应对实现乡村绿色发展、建设低碳乡村至关重要。基于陇南山区农户的入户调查数据，利用碳排放清单法分析了2014—2019年农户的生计转型路径及其低碳效应。结果表明：（1）陇南山区农户的生计策略分为传统农业主导型、经济作物主导型、务工主导型、经商主导型和综合型；2014—2019年有26.97%的农户生计策略发生了转型，最主要的转型方式是由综合型转向务工主导型；（2）因人均生活碳排放增加量高于人均生产碳排放减少量，陇南山区农户的人均家庭碳排放呈增加趋势；（3）农户生计转型路径中，由经济作物主导型转向传统农业主导型的人均家庭碳排放降幅最大，为41.45%，综合型转向传统农业主导型的增幅最大，达208.86%。     

农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的影响因素——基于野外土地利用测量与入户调查

恢复力作为刻画人类自身响应和发挥主体能力、积极抵御和适应外界变化的指标，在灾害学领域的引入进一步丰富和明晰了灾害承灾体的性质，与脆弱性具有同等的重要性。但当前对灾害恢复力的研究不足，如何界定灾害恢复力的特征、诊断和定量评价恢复力尚存在较大的探讨空间。在湖南鼎城高排河流域野外土地利用现状测量与入户调查所得数据和气象数据的基础上，应用数学统计方法重点分析了土地利用、农户经济、文化素质状况等因素与农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的关系。结果表明，地貌类型与海拔高度从较大尺度上决定了农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的大小，水源地位置及其蓄水能力、水田与旱地的比例关系、劳动力文化水平、农户实际年收入和非农收入比例是影响农业旱灾承灾体恢复力的主要因素。     

PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA

Inrecentyears ,inthebackgroundofstrongglobalenvironmentalchange ,naturalvariationhastheaggravatingtendencyyearbyyearinChina .Additionally ,Chinahasahigheconomicgrowthrateandagreatpopulation ;humanactivitiesinhighriskareas (likeLoessPlateau)areexacerbated ;andbearingcapabilityagainstthedisasterisgenerallyvulnerable .Becauseofthosefactorsabove ,theeconomiclossescausedbythedisastershavebeenincreasing .Therefore ,ithasbecomethescientificbasisofestablishingaregionalsustainabledevelopmenttoprobein…     

九江市地下水易污性评价——基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型

从污染物入渗土壤-包气带-含水层的过程出发,以地质、地貌、水文地质条件为主控因素,选取地下水埋深(D)、降雨入渗补给量(P)、含水层岩性(A)、土壤类型(S)、地形坡度(T)、非饱和带介质(I)及含水层渗透系数(C)7个指标,建立了九江市地下水易污性评价DPASTIC指标体系.结合模糊数学理论和方法,建立了基于DPASTIC指标的模糊综合评价模型.该模型克服了指标参数级别划分定额差异和指标值不连续性变化的缺陷,寻求出最优的级别定额划分状态和指标值的连续性变化情况;在指标级别定额划分上,引用了指标标准特征值的概念,根据实测参数数据资料,建立了10个级别的指标标准特征值矩阵,确定指标参数的最优相对隶属度.结合MAPGIS软件得出最后的地下水易污性分区,评价结果与规划区的实测及预测的水环境质量相吻合.