基于SEM的医院安全脆弱性研究

为准确衡量医院的安全水平,分析医院安全脆弱性影响因素及其关系,首先提炼出基于4个指标,26个因子的医院安全脆弱性概念模型;然后选取10家三甲医院的200名中高层管理者发放问卷,采用SPSS21.0软件对模型进行影响因子验证和修正;最后运用SEM方法,得到指标对医院安全脆弱性的影响路径系数。研究结果表明:人员安全类对医院安全脆弱性影响最大;其次是技术安全类、自然灾害类的脆弱性;另外,4大类脆弱性因素具有直接或间接的影响;医院管理者可以通过加强人员安全培训和管理,提升技术安全措施,预防自然灾害,减少医院安全事故的发生。     

基于链式中介效应的辱虐管理与安全绩效关系研究

为明晰辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠对安全绩效的作用机理,在文献研究和开放式访谈的基础上,建立四者关系的假设模型。采用辱虐管理量表、自我损耗量表、工作倦怠量表和安全绩效量表对389名员工进行调查,通过SPSS和AMOS进行相关分析和中介效应检验验证假设模型。结果表明,辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠两两之间均呈显著正相关,而辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠三者均与安全绩效呈显著负相关。辱虐管理不仅可以直接预测安全绩效,还可以通过3条路径间接影响安全绩效:通过自我损耗的独立中介作用;通过工作倦怠的独立中介作用;通过自我损耗和工作倦怠的链式中介作用。有效干预辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠,能提升安全绩效水平,减少人因失误。     

中国经济系统地震易损性分析

本文分析了地震对经济系统功能的破坏。在现有数据的基础上建立了一个经济模型，用于定量分析地震对经济的破坏。并进一步提出了一个动态区域经济模型的原理和基本结构，当数据条件具备即可建立模型。这样一个动态模型可确切地描述地震对经济系统的破坏及破坏后的恢复过程。     

Assessment of Ground Water Vulnerability and its Application to the Development of Protection Strategy for the Water Supply Aquifer in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria

Pollution vulnerability of theOwerri regional water supply aquifer wasevaluated as a basis for developing appropriateprotection strategy for the groundwaterresource. The assessment was accomplished usingLegrand, GOD, Siga and DRASTIC models.Techniques of the models generally involvedparameters rating and point count systems, whichare based on the evaluation of various parameterin relation to their capacity for enhancing orattenuating contaminants in the groundwatersystem. Field and laboratory evaluations of theparameters indicate that the Owerri areagenerally occupies a nearly, flat topographywith a relatively high groundwater recharge. Thearea is underlain by predominantly sandyfacies in the Northern area which grades intogravelly sequences towards the southwest. TheSoutheastern area is distinguished by thickclayey facies that thin westwards towards theOwerri metropolis. Effective hydraulicconductivity (Kz) in the downward directionranges from 1.44 × 10^-3 to 5.6 × 10^-9 m s^-1; with the upper limits reflecting coarsesands and gravelly units. The amount of clay andclay-size particles in the sandy and gravellyunits is negligible, suggesting that thesorptive capacity of the units is low. Depth towater table decreases southwards while hydraulichead gradients vary between 0.09 and 0.22.Groundwater occurs in unconfined conditions inmost places except in the southeastern zonewhere it is semi-confined due to the presence ofa clayey unit. The groundwater vulnerabilitymap developed on the basis of the models andseveral other thematic maps shows that theOwerri metropolis and the southwest area ofOwerri have high vulnerability, indicatinggroundwater pollution. The existing wastedisposal sites in these sub-areas should beabandoned and rehabilitated to forstall furtherpollution of the groundwater system. Areas tothe North and Southeast of Owerri have moderateand low vulnerabilities, respectively,indicating the relatively lower sensitivity ofthe groundwater system in the sub-areas tocontamination. The lower sensitivity couldfurther be matched with properly engineeredsanitary landfills in the event of choice ofsites, as an additional protective strategy forthe groundwater system.     

张家口地区生态脆弱性及其影响因素

生态脆弱性是国际社会面对一系列生态问题时无法回避的重点议题,也是生态文明建设与绿色发展研究的热点之一。基于SRP模型,以张家口地区为研究区域,选取14项指标构建张家口地区生态脆弱性评价指标体系,把主成分分析法和地理探测器结合起来,进行张家口地区生态脆弱度以及主要影响因素研究。结果表明：2008—2016年间,张家口地区生态脆弱性明显下降,2008年、2012年和2016年轻度脆弱面积占比分别为27.24%、29.54%和35.57%,生态系统结构与功能正在向良性方向发展;研究区域内生态脆弱性空间分布差异主要与坡度、干旱指数、植被覆盖度和气温等因素的变化有关。基于评价结果,对张家口市生态治理与绿色发展提出建议。     

基于GIS与信息量法的北流市地质灾害易发性评价

广西北流市地质灾害多发频发,急需开展地质灾害易发性评价工作。基于Arc GIS分析筛选后选取了坡度、坡向、岩性、地貌、水系、道路、构造、工程切坡强度、最大24 h降雨均值为评价因子。运用信息量模型进行了易发性区划,将北流市划分为极高、高、中、低、极低易发区,分别占研究区面积的27. 75%、21. 83%、29. 38%、14. 44%、6. 58%。从评价成果知,地质灾害主要集中发生在坡度为0～23°;坡向为西北、北、西南和南;地层岩性为岩浆岩类;地貌类型为低山丘陵和丘陵盆地;工程切坡强烈且未加以防护区域;水系、道路和地质构造发育等特征区域。通过受试者工作特征曲线的线下面积进行检验,结果为73. 6%,说明分区结果合理,能够为北流市地质灾害的防灾减灾工作提供一定的科学依据。     

垃圾填埋场地下水污染风险分级评价

为了更有针对性地解决垃圾填埋场造成的地下水污染问题,有利于分级管理及合理安排资源,构建包括垃圾填埋场特征、含水层脆弱性和受体暴露情况的风险评价指标体系,使用AHP（层次分析法）确定各指标的权重,采用加权求和的方法计算垃圾填埋场地下水污染风险指数,并将垃圾填埋场的地下水风险分为“低”“中”“高”三级,针对不同风险等级提出相应的管理建议.以北天堂垃圾填埋场的4个填埋地块为例,运用所构建的风险评价模型对其进行风险评价.结果表明:4个填埋地块的风险指数分别为5.307、5.845、7.001和7.413.位于东北部和北部的填埋地块1和2风险等级为“中”,位于西北部和南部的地块3和4风险等级为“高”.研究显示,通过垃圾填埋场地下水污染风险评价体系,可以识别出填埋场污染的关键环节,对风险等级为高、已经造成污染的填埋场污染提出有针对性的治理和修复措施,对风险等级为低和中的填埋场,制订相应的监测和管理方案,防止污染发生.      

Mapping vulnerability to extreme heat events: lessons from metropolitan Chicago

In this paper, we develop an approach for identifying the location of populations most vulnerable to extreme heat events and how those locations change over time. We scan the literature on measuring vulnerability, especially sensitivity and adaptive capacity of populations. We employ Census data for metropolitan Chicago for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, and maximum likelihood factor analysis to derive an index and map the distribution of Census tracts where residents exhibit greater sensitivity and/or lower adaptive capacity to extreme heat. Our findings show a pattern of deconcentration and decentralization of these populations within the city and region over time, with gentrification and the suburbanization of poverty trends observed in many US metropolitan regions as possible contributing factors. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for planning efforts in the study area and offer suggestions for further research.     

电力系统地震易损性研究

采用专家咨询方法研究了我国电力系统设施及功能的地震易损性,详细论述了所使用的方法及其步骤,给出了设施易损性和功能易损性的调查结果。数据的统计处理表明,这些结果可以用Logistic曲线得到很好的拟合。地震烈度的临界点出现在Ⅸ度与X度之间。本文的结果不但具有理论价值,而且具有应用价值。     

The Vandaclim Simulation Model: A Training Tool for Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

This paper describes a training course on climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The course, developed in partnership with the CC:TRAIN Programme of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), aims to enhance the capacity of developing countries to make their national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper focuses on a simulation model called VANDACLIM, which was developed as a pedagogical tool to facilitate the training. Four sectors are modelled within VANDACLIM (agriculture, public health, water resources, and coastal zone) and are used as a basis for helping to conduct an integrated, multi-sectoral assessment for the imaginary, sub-tropical country of Vanda. The learning-by-doing approach, encapsulated in the application of VANDACLIM to complete a mini-assessment for Vanda, proved to be very successful when trialled at a training workshop in Zimbabwe. Both the training course and VANDACLIM have been adapted subsequently for application in small island states and plans are underway for extension to other environments and regions of the world.