Climate adaptation in fragmented governance settings: the consequences of reform in public administration

The impact of dominant trends in public administration, such as decentralisation and privatisation on complex collective challenges is insufficiently understood. This is relevant in settings where climate change impacts become manifest at local level, and where financing power resides at national level but decisions are made more locally in a fragmented institutional setting. This study assists in overcoming this gap by analysing how the institutional context (i.e. a decentralised, privatised, fragmented setting) influences the capacity to address climate change challenges in a vulnerable area (the South Devon coast in the UK). There has been little action to address expected climate change impacts in this vulnerable stretch of coast. A lack of clarity around responsibility for addressing climate impacts and a lack of a deliberative structure between various actors involved, within a context of austerity, hamper climate change adaptation. The findings question whether decentralised decision making is sufficient for addressing climate adaptation challenges.     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

Capital assets framework for analysing household vulnerability during disaster

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.     

A landscape vulnerability analysis method proposal and its integration in the EIA

Landscape is the area primarily affected by proposed human projects. The prediction and evaluation of the potential anthropogenic impacts under Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is therefore one of the major environmental tools for prevention of any deteriorative or destructive actions. To conduct EIA properly requires inclusion of a determination of landscape vulnerability which expresses the possible landscape reaction to impacts of any exogenous factors. When it is designated correctly, the suitable human activities are determined more accurately. Even though many techniques for this have been suggested worldwide, lots of deficiencies have surfaced in their application. This paper presents a method for landscape vulnerability analysis which consists of qualitative evaluation of landscape receptors, their scoring, the vulnerability degree calculation, and overall reliability evaluation. The method proposed can improve the impact objectivity of prediction and evaluation and the suggestion of precise mitigation measures with the purpose of achieving sustainable landscape management.     

Household-level preferences for mitigation of Prosopis juliflora invasion in the Afar region of Ethiopia: a contingent valuation

Prosopis juliflora, which is an alien tree species in Ethiopia, has invaded over 360,500 ha of land in the Afar region of the country and is threatening pastoral livelihoods. We conducted a contingent valuation study to assess rural households’ willingness to contribute in cash and labor to mitigate P. juliflora invasion in three districts of Afar. Results show that about 84% of the respondents prefer an intervention involving complete eradication of P. juliflora. The lower and upper bound median willingness to contribute to this intervention were 9.97 and 13.42 USD/household/year in cash and 30 and 43 days/household/year in labor. Off-farm income and P. juliflora invasion levels on pasturelands are among the factors affecting willingness to contribute to the mitigation of P. juliflora invasion. Incentives to local people and having a proper institutional setup that involves local culture and institutions are important for mobilizing people on a voluntary basis for mitigation of P. juliflora invasion.     

Socioeconomic backwardness and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from Uttar Pradesh state in India

This study tests the thesis that ‘vulnerability to climate change is not only a result of biophysical events alone but also influenced by the socioeconomic conditions in which climate change occurs’. The study chose Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state in India, for its importance in the nation's food and nutrition security programme and its high sensitivity to climate change. It uses an indicator approach to see which districts of UP are the most vulnerable to climate change, and attempts to identify the factors on a set of explanatory variables. The study finds that infrastructurally and economically developed districts are less vulnerable to climate change; in other words, vulnerability to climate change and variability is linked with social and economic development. This observation is corroborated by the findings of relational analysis wherein livestock, forestry, consumption of fertilizer, per capita income, and infant mortality rate are observed to be important correlates of vulnerability to climate change.     

Role of non-timber forest products in sustaining forest-based livelihoods and rural households' resilience capacity in and around protected area: a Bangladesh study†

People in the developing world derive a significant part of their livelihoods from various forest products, particularly non-timber forest products (NTFPs). This article attempts to explore the contribution of NTFPs in sustaining forest-based rural livelihood in and around a protected area (PA) of Bangladesh, and their potential role in enhancing households' resilience capacity. Based on empirical investigation, our study revealed that local communities gather a substantial amount of NTFPs from national park despite the official restrictions. Twenty seven percent households (HHs) of the area received at least some cash benefit from the collection, processing and selling of NTFPs, and NTFPs contribute to HHs' primary, supplementary and emergency sources of income. NTFPs also constituted an estimated 19% of HHs' net annual income, and were the primary occupation for about 18% of the HHs. HHs' dependency on nearby forests for various NTFPs varied vis-à-vis their socio-economic condition, as well as with their location from the park. Based on our case study, the article also offers some clues for improving the situation in PA.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

基于GIS的城镇建筑物易损性分析与应用研究

利用城镇地籍数据信息,基于GIS软件进行建筑物易损性和居民安全风险分析与应用研究。通过对某县城中最具代表性的一个街坊建筑物的易损性分析和居民安全风险分析实例应用研究,重点讨论并实现了利用现有数字化地籍图、城镇地籍数据库及土地调查记录等信息;并结合建筑物震害损失评估模型和人员伤亡预测方法,完成不同结构类型的建筑物在不同地震烈度条件下的破坏造成的经济损失评估和人员伤亡程度的预测,对城市防灾减灾进行辅助决策支持与评估。     

关于秦皇岛市科学发展中若干重要问题的探讨

按照国家统计局标准,秦皇岛市城市规模已达到大城市标准,应充分发挥辐射带动作用,加快城镇化步伐;抓住城市发展综合效益最佳期的机遇,促进可持续发展;坚持产业结构多元化,各产业协调发展。秦皇岛市生产总值在河北省属中上水平,在沿海开放城市中属落后水平,应尽快提高生产总值;秦皇岛市在科学发展中属比较先进水平,在民生发展方面属先进水平,其中生态方面优势明显,应进一步发挥生态优势,保护环境。秦皇岛市科技创新取得显著成绩,但任务艰巨,必须进一步实施创新驱动发展战略。