基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。     

Linkages among ecotourism,landscape and natural resource management,and livelihood diversification in the region of Suğla Lake,Turkey

The purpose of this study is to evaluate opportunities of the region of Su?la Lake located in Turkey for community-based ecotourism development that enable sustainable landscape and natural resource management as well as livelihood diversification. A participatory research approach was applied by participation of a diverse number of stakeholders (e.g. local communities, local and central governmental bodies and researchers). A set of participatory research tools (e.g. interviews and field surveys), SWOT analysis and the method of Ecotourism Opportunity Spectrum (ECOS) were used to collect and evaluate relevant data. The study consists of four sections. The first section focuses on SWOT analysis by which the advantages and disadvantages of the study area for ecotourism development were examined. In the second section, the most suitable villages for ecotourism development were examined by adapting the method of ECOS based on the 18 parameters by using 1–4 score system. Accordingly, the most suitable five villages for ecotourism development were determined. Major natural and cultural ecotourism resources (e.g. diversity of landforms, spectacular landscapes and traditional lifestyle) of the study area were examined in the third section. In the fourth section, the ecotourism-based livelihood and relevant core capitals were evaluated according to 1–4 score system for the five villages. We hope that the outcomes of this study can draw attention of planners and policymakers to the role of ecotourism for sustainable landscape and natural resource management as well as livelihood diversification in the region and elsewhere.     

基于自然灾害的北京幅综合生态风险评价

经过20多年的发展,风险源评价从单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体从单一受体发展到多受体,评价尺度也从种群、生态系统扩展到区域和景观水平。但总体说来,对多风险源、多过程的多个生态系统层次的风险评价尚不成熟。运用数字高程模型、干燥度分布图、植被指数、人口密度以及8种自然灾害风险源频率分布图、土地利用图、植被类型图、陆地生态系统生态资产分布图等数据,基于ArcGIS 9.2平台,综合考虑生态的脆弱性,风险源的发生频率,受体的暴露水平、危害程度等,对多风险源、多个生态系统综合的北京幅生态风险进行评价。旨在对区域综合生态风险评价方法进行探讨。评价结果显示：（1）高风险区主要为本区环渤海湾沿岸,包括天津市,河北唐山、沧州,山东滨州、东营、潍坊等沿海地带;以及本图幅西部、北部的太行山地,包括河北省、北京市及图幅西部的山西、河南部分地区;（2）较低生态风险区所占比例较高,达42.55%,可见降低生态风险有很大的潜力;（3）高强度的人类开发,尤其是在滨海地区围海造陆,将会导致沿海地区生态风险更高。     

区域承灾体脆弱性综合评价指标权重的确定

合理确定脆弱性指标的权重地承灾体脆弱性研究的关键,本文在文献[2]的基础上,通过信函和网上电子邮件的方法请国内外地质灾害,地震灾害和洪涝灾害专家构造指标重要度两两判断矩阵,采用层次分析法确煊了三类灾害的承灾体脆弱性指标权重分布。     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.     

武汉市轨道交通线网应急救援站选址研究

城市轨道交通线网对城市的发展起着重要作用,针对城市轨道交通网络化运营以及突发事件的相关特点,结合复杂网络的相关理论,利用Pajek软件进行网络中心性分析,同时考虑到空间、成本、救援3个约束条件,建立“P-中心应急救援站选址模型”,使轨道交通线网中最大应急救援距离最小,同时防护到网络中所有的需求站点;利用遗传算法进行编程计算和模型求解,以得到最优结果;以武汉市轨道交通线网为例进行应急救援站选址研究,得到12个应急救援站的最佳布置方案,最后通过线网脆弱性对比分析验证了该方案的脆弱性最小,说明选址方案可靠。     

基础设施地震易损性的评估研究综述

为了加强基础设施系统地震易损性的研究,最大限度减少地震灾害带来的损失,本文通过对基础设施地震易损性研究文献的回顾,分析总结了基础设施地震易损性的相关概念、研究框架与定量评估方法,研究了基础设施地震易损性主要评估方法的适用范围和优缺点。研究结果表明,现有研究集中于对基础设施系统中部分子系统的评估,且地域性强,许多模型和方法无法扩展到其他地区。大部分对基础设施地震易损性的研究还停留在定性层面,易受主观因素影响,需要加强量化和规范化分析。     

Capital assets framework for analysing household vulnerability during disaster

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.     

Climate adaptation in fragmented governance settings: the consequences of reform in public administration

The impact of dominant trends in public administration, such as decentralisation and privatisation on complex collective challenges is insufficiently understood. This is relevant in settings where climate change impacts become manifest at local level, and where financing power resides at national level but decisions are made more locally in a fragmented institutional setting. This study assists in overcoming this gap by analysing how the institutional context (i.e. a decentralised, privatised, fragmented setting) influences the capacity to address climate change challenges in a vulnerable area (the South Devon coast in the UK). There has been little action to address expected climate change impacts in this vulnerable stretch of coast. A lack of clarity around responsibility for addressing climate impacts and a lack of a deliberative structure between various actors involved, within a context of austerity, hamper climate change adaptation. The findings question whether decentralised decision making is sufficient for addressing climate adaptation challenges.     

Measuring populations' vulnerabilities for famine and food security interventions: the case of Ethiopia's Chronic Vulnerability Index

The concept of vulnerability has become an important part of food security analyses since the 1980s. It is seen as having two sides: exposure to external hazards; and an inability to cope with those shocks, attributed to social, political, and economic factors. Numerous attempts have been made to construct models to determine levels of vulnerability among populations. This paper analyses one such attempt, the Chronic Vulnerability Index (CVI), developed to measure levels of vulnerability to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The example of the CVI reveals many of the difficulties associated with producing a basic model of vulnerability that can be used in disaster mitigation. Ultimately, the CVI assumes that vulnerability is a linear, additive phenomenon with discrete causes and effects and fails to capture interactions between hazards and the human systems that produce and complicate them. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternatives to the CVI.