山区沿河公路地质风险形成机制

根据山区沿河公路灾害的特点,将以岩土介质为主的传统地质灾害类型和水沙介质灾害类型整合,提出了“广义地质灾害体”的概念,并以介质组成为标准进行了广义地质灾害体分类.在孕灾环境评价和致灾因子评价的基础上,提出了广义地质灾害体的孕灾环境与致灾因子异相耦合发育机理.基于公路承灾体健康的理念,认为公路承灾体易损性主要受控于公路结构本身的健康性态,采取技术可行、经济合理的技术措施使结构健康复原是工程性减灾措施的目的.将公路承灾体类型分为结构性承灾体和功能性承灾体两类.提出了公路地质风险的耦合对抗形成机制,即公路地质风险是广义地质灾害体危险性与公路承灾体易损性之间时空耦合对抗的结果.认为地质风险评估是关于多因素非线性灾害风险系统的预测评价问题.根据地质风险形成的耦合机制,提出了采用解耦措施来逆向控制公路地质风险形成演化过程的减灾思路.针对山区沿河公路,给出了从孕灾环境、致灾因子、广义地质灾害体危险性、承灾体易损性评价到地质风险评估的思路与一般函数表达式.     

河北省农业旱灾脆弱性区划与减灾

脆弱性是农业遭受干旱影响和旱灾损失的必要条件,它决定旱灾影响的强度。本文对河北省农业旱灾脆弱性进行了区划,分析了区域农业旱灾脆弱性变化的成因,针对区域农业旱灾脆弱性累进的动态压力,提出了调整人类行为、降低脆弱性、减轻灾害影响和损失的思路。     

湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与定量评价

旱灾是湖南省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的严重制约因素。在同一致灾强度下，灾情随灾害脆弱性的增强而加重，降低灾害脆弱性可减轻灾害造成的直接经济损失，因此农业旱灾脆弱性的研究对湖南省减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要的意义，湖南省自然生态环境和社会经济状况各异，农业旱灾脆弱性各地不同，选择降水量，蒸发量，水利化程度等9个指标综合评价了各个县市的旱灾脆弱性，并利用GIS技术进行旱灾脆弱性区划，结果表明，湘中衡邵盆地和湘西北山地是农业旱灾严重脆弱带，湖南山地区为强度旱灾脆弱带，沅麻盆地山地区为中度旱灾脆弱带，洞庭湖平原和湘东北山地旱灾脆弱性较小。     

黄土高原地区生态脆弱性时空变化及其驱动因子分析

黄土高原是我国生态系统最脆弱的地区之一,科学评估其生态脆弱性是制定有效环境保护和管理措施的前提.然而,过去研究多关注某一小区域的生态脆弱性,不能反映该地区生态脆弱性的整体特征.基于"暴露-敏感性-适应力"模型框架,结合层次分析、空间主成分分析和地理探测器等方法评估了黄土高原地区2000~2015年生态脆弱性的时空变化特征及其驱动因子.结果表明,黄土高原地区生态脆弱性整体较高,并呈现出从东南到西北递增的趋势,且不同土地利用类型脆弱性差异大;2000~2015年生态脆弱性呈先增后降趋势,整体呈微弱降低趋势,其中约64%地区的脆弱性发生了变化;植被覆盖度和降水是控制生态脆弱性时空变化的主要因子,且所有指标因子间均存在明显的交互作用.说明气候变化和人类活动可能有助于降低黄土高原地区的生态脆弱性,但其作用有限.     

Application of Fair Trade certification for wild plants: lessons from a FairWild project in India

Based on a study of an experimental wild plant certification project implemented within a tribal community in India, this paper explores how wild plant collectors respond to two contradictory objectives of certification, namely, conserving a targeted plant species while promoting its sale. By providing economic incentives through certification, the project aimed to induce a shift from the collection of immature berries to mature berries from a targeted tree species. However, the majority of the collectors increased their harvests of mature berries while continuing to collect the same quantities of immature berries. This unanticipated project outcome can be attributed to the unique nature of wild plants as an uncertain income source that requires no investment. Evidently, collectors have developed their own concepts of ecological and economic sustainability derived from this unique income source endowed by nature, and have incorporated the new economic opportunity into their own natural resource management strategies.     

Conservation geopolitics

We reviewed recent work concerning the impact of geopolitics on wildlife conservation (and vice versa) and identified future priorities in conservation geopolitics research. Geopolitics is understood as both an analytical focus on geopolitical practices (especially concerning the behavior) of countries with respect to territory and national security and a set of theories developed to explain and predict those behaviors. We developed a typology of core geopolitical practices of relevance to conservation: territorial practices of colonization and the management of migrations and borders, and security practices relating to military, economic, and environmental security. We identified research that considers how these practices affect conservation situations and outcomes, noting the recent emergence of conceptual developments such as “environmental geopolitics” and “geopolitical ecology” that draw on multiple fields within the social sciences to theorize the links between geopolitics and environmental management. We defined a "geopolitical perspective" as a focus on geopolitical practices combined with an explicit engagement with geopolitical theory and identified conservation situations where this perspective could contribute to analytical clarity. We suggest the most pressing questions in conservation research to which the geopolitical perspective might contribute are how political and economic differences between countries affect biodiversity outcomes, how geopolitical practices to address those differences facilitate or frustrate conservation efforts, how national borders and human and wildlife movements can be better managed for the benefit of both, and how the most effective conservation strategies can be best selected to suit existing (and future) geopolitical realities.     

Examining the impacts of disaster resettlement from a livelihood perspective: a case study of Qinling Mountains,China

Disaster resettlement, as a mitigation and preparedness measure, entails significant economic, physical, and social impacts, which continue to challenge understanding of recovery from major events, especially regarding the extent of the context and environmental efforts to rebuild livelihoods. Based on a case study of Qinling Mountains, China, this research investigates the effects of disaster resettlement from a livelihoods perspective. Methodologically, it proposes a framework that combines the pressure–state–response framework and the sustainable livelihoods approach, and it employs a structural equation model to examine how specific factors affect disaster resettlement. The results indicate that conflicts may occur during and after resettlement owing to the difference or disparity between the concerns of resettled peasants and those of the government. Consequently, the risks related to livelihoods need to be taken seriously. Effective risk communication is critical to bridge the gap between different stakeholders. The paper concludes with some practical and policy recommendations.     

轮作休耕对劳动力转移的影响——以河北、甘肃、云南三省为例

近年来,中国耕地的不合理利用引发了一系列严重的问题,为此国家提出“探索实行耕地轮作休耕制度试点”这一重要举措。劳动力是农业的主要生产要素,归纳总结农户休耕和劳动力转移的情况,准确掌握休耕面积对劳动力转移产生的影响,对进一步推动国家轮作休耕政策、现代化发展和城镇化具有重要的战略意义。基于此,利用河北、甘肃、云南三省六县1542户农户家庭的相关调研数据,对农户休耕、劳动力转移等情况进行了分析,并运用Tobit回归模型定量分析农户休耕面积对劳动力转移数量的影响。研究结果表明：（1）研究区内农户休耕比例与户均休耕面积存在差异,且休耕比例与户均休耕面积大小均为甘肃省>云南省>河北省。（2）研究区内有62.97%的家庭存在劳动力转移现象,且休耕农户劳动力转移数量远超未休耕农户。（3）核心变量休耕面积对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响;控制变量中,农户家庭总人口、户主性别、劳动力受教育水平、医疗支出、住宅距公路距离和劳均工资对劳动力转移存在显著的正向影响,而家庭抚养比则对劳动力转移存在显著的负向影响。     

陕西省生态环境景观格局脆弱性及空间关联研究

基于地理信息系统GIS和景观格局指数分析Fragstats,研究陕西省生态环境景观格局脆弱性及空间关联,结果显示:2001年、2006年和2011年,陕西省景观格局脆弱度分别为0~7.406 6、0~7.970 5和0~8.034 8,呈下降的趋势,高脆弱区面积逐渐减小,低脆弱区和较低脆弱区面积逐渐增大.2001年、2006年和2011年的全局Moran`s I 指数分别是0.792 8、0.692 1和0.679 9,呈不断减少的趋势,景观格局脆弱度存在较强的正相关现象.局部空间自相关表明,2001年"高-高"值的区域主要分布在陕西中部和南部,2006年"高-高"值的区域分布在除中南部以外的区域,2011年"高-高"值的区域分布在除中西部以外的区域.     

ISM耦合ANP的洞室施工人员风险感知系统脆弱性仿真分析

为了深入探究地下洞室施工人员对施工风险的感知能力,基于系统理论,以地下洞室施工人员的风险感知系统为研究对象,结合解释结构模型(ISM)、网络层次分析法（ANP）和系统动力学（SD）建立地下洞室施工人员风险感知系统脆弱性仿真模型,对其脆弱性变化趋势进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明:工人自身因素和状态对风险感知系统脆弱性影响最大,在施工时应该时刻关注工人的身心状态,通过加大安全教育培训、增强安全监管力度等措施来促进工人的安全意识。