PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

露天煤矿生态系统脆弱性评价方法研究

露天煤矿的开采会对当地生态环境系统造成极大的损害，矿区可持续发展的目标要求在矿区开发过程中制定完善的生产建设、生态恢复重建规划来促进生态环境管理，这需要对生态环境系统进行科学的评价，并分析寻找影响可持续发展的原因，同时能够对各类措施的效果进行评价。本研究通过建立一个科学的、可操作性较强的生态环境系统脆弱性评价体系，为正确的制订矿区生态重建规划、生产建设规划以及生态环境保护规划提供基础理论保障和技术手段。     

旅游社区安全:概念及研究述评

全域旅游的兴起使得旅游社区及其安全问题日益重要,然而学术界尚未建立起旅游社区安全研究体系。旅游社区安全是以旅游为主业的社区内部协调稳定,外部健康存续,旅游业持续发展的一种状态,内涵丰富,类型多样。当前学术界主要是从旅游社区脆弱性、恢复力以及可持续发展等角度入手进行该论题的研究,且多是从目的地视角出发,并未突出社区的独立性。未来的旅游社区安全研究应首先构建起独立的研究体系,并在与国外进行比较研究的基础上,强调多样性和适宜性的研究方法和路径。     

中国县域单元生态脆弱性时空变化研究

以中国2853个县(市、旗、区)为研究单元,以1980、1990、2000和2010年全国1 km格网土地利用数据和中国县级行政单元社会经济统计数据为基础,通过VSD模型,构建了基于自然和人为共同作用下的生态系统影响力指数和社会经济适应力指数,用以综合表达生态脆弱性空间分异,在此基础上对中国县域单元的生态脆弱性进行定量评价.结果表明:中国县域生态系统影响力指数持续降低,2000年之前呈现由"东北到西南"逐渐降低的趋势,2000年之后,基本呈现"中东部及新疆北部高、西南低"的格局.适应力指数空间分布差异十分明显,表现出东南沿海高于中部,中部又高于西部的格局.从生态系统脆弱性空间分布格局来看,东南部比西部地区更脆弱,从时间变化来看,中国生态脆弱度整体好转,局部恶化;从数量变化来看,1983个县域单元处于高度脆弱区和极度脆弱区,仅有327个县域单元于处于轻度和微度脆弱区.处于极度脆弱区和高度脆弱区的县域单元未来要合理规划土地利用,加强土地利用管理,调整用地布局并严格控制城镇规模扩张;对于轻度和微度脆弱区则应坚持以生态建设和环境保护为主,禁止污染型产业发展,有序引导人口转移,发展生态旅游业和高技术产业.     

中原经济区平原区地下水脆弱性评价

以中原经济区平原区为研究区,根据研究区具体情况、结合DRASTIC模型和人类活动影响构建了地下水脆弱性评价指标体系,并对固有脆弱性和特殊脆弱性分别赋以0.4和0.6的权重进行综合脆弱性评价,最后通过ARC GIS绘制地下水脆弱性分布图。结果表明:中原经济区平原区地下水综合脆弱性以中等、较高和高为主,三类区域面积分别占24.88%、33.61%和23.44%,其中脆弱性高的区域主要集中在人类活动密集的海河流域和淮河流域中上游。通过与相关水质研究成果对比,地下水脆弱性高的区域也是地下水污染较为严重的区域,说明评价结果较为客观合理,可作为管理部门在未来地下水污染防治方面提供相关参考。     

基于三角图法的输电线路物理脆弱性评估及分类

输电线路在自然灾害或人为破坏等外力干扰下,易受损坏或发生故障,致使电力系统全部或部分功能丧失。将输电线路物理脆弱性定位于"功能失效",从人与环境对输电线路造成的压力、输电线路自身状态及功能失效后的响应等方面进行分析,构建输电线路物理脆弱性评估指标体系;借鉴已有评估方法,提出基于压力指数、状态指数和响应指数的评估模型;应用三角图法对输电线路进行物理脆弱性评估和分类,分析影响输电线路物理脆弱性的主要因素。以某500 k V输电线路为例进行实例分析,结果表明影响该输电线路脆弱性关键因素为压力和响应。     

汉江中下游典型城市发展对气候变化脆弱性分析研究

在全球气候变化的背景下,汉江中下游气候也发生了明显变化,气候变化对该区域发展造成了不同程度的影响.本论文分析了汉江中下游的襄阳、荆门和武汉的发展对气候变化的脆弱性,探讨影响其脆弱性变化的关键因素,为该区域应对气候变化、减少未来气候变化对汉江中下游发展的负面影响、实现汉江中下游社会、经济和环境的可持续发展提供依据.     

城市燃气管网脆弱性评价及其应用

为研究城市燃气管网系统的本质安全性,提出了适用于城市燃气管网系统的脆弱性概念及脆弱性研究思路。根据城市燃气管网自身的行业特点与实地调研结果,从物理、结构和社会功能3个角度出发,建立了城市燃气管网脆弱性指标体系及等级标准。然后通过MATLAB R2010a的BP神经网络方法分别训练"敏感性程度"和"自身应对能力"网络模型,并构建脆弱性的函数模型。最后将城市燃气管网脆弱性等级划分为5个,用于评价城市燃气管网的脆弱性程度。训练得到的网络模型的均方差均小于0.05,结果表明,训练得到的网络模型效果良好,具有较强的泛化能力,且能够方便地用于评价未知样本,得到研究区域的燃气管网脆弱性等级值为0.91,研究区域的燃气管网脆弱性被评定为"不脆弱"。     

Legal requirements for risk and vulnerability assessments in Norwegian land-use planning

Land-use planning has been promoted as an important tool for adaptation to climate change. However, its success depends on effective communication between researchers and decision-makers. A “risk and vulnerability assessment” (RVA) is one method to facilitate the interaction between the groups. RVAs have been performed in Norwegian land-use planning for about 20 years, and been mandatory for new development the last few years. The first part of the article reviews the history and current legal regulation of RVAs in Norway. Continuing, the main part discusses the distribution of authority and responsibility for different parts of the process and result. The key finding is that significant decisions are deferred to municipal discretion, for example, the necessity (if doubtful) and scope of the assessments. Other topics (such as the burden of costs and eligible performers) are largely unregulated, prompting some arguments about the need for further legislative effort.     

Chronicles of security risk assessment in process industries: Past,present and future perspectives

Security incidents around the world causes enormous loss in terms of life, economy, and environment. The 9/11 ′triggered the serious onset of research initiatives in the field of security with a more specific focus on the protection of high sensitive and hazardous facilities. It is well known that technology is advancing in a very rapid phase, proportionally increasing the security risk of the facilities. Conventional deterministic risk techniques widely found their applications in the earlier stage but owing to the increasing dynamic nature of the security risk, probabilistic dynamic risk assessment models were developed over time. In this article, the authors attempted to present the evolution of security risk concepts, their present status, and their future scope in a precise and consolidated form. The last 20 years of development in the security risk assessment concept involving deterministic and dynamic risk assessment models and applications in security risk assessment relevant to physical security are discussed in this article. The objective of the article is to outline the past, current and future directions of security risk highlighting their strength, weakness and limitations.