石化企业基于HVC的应急管理风险评估研究

介绍了以风险辨识、脆弱性分析和应急能力评估相结合的HVC应急管理风险评估法,对石油化工行业的应急管理进行评估的做法。     

西双版纳生物多样性廊道区气候变化脆弱性评价研究

以IPCC（政府间气候变化专业委员会）对生态系统气候脆弱性定义为理论基础,以西双版纳勐腊一尚勇保护区廊道为研究区域,通过建立生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系,对廊道从20世纪70年代到现在和未来变化做了评估,初步识别出不同历史时期研究区的生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性特征,并提出应对气候变化的对策建议。     

中国区域能源安全供给脆弱性分析

随着经济持续快速发展,我国能源需求不断增加,能源安全,尤其是石油安全问题日益突出,而能源安全供给脆弱性是能源安全的核心问题.在对能源安全供给脆弱性概念进行界定的基础上,构建了脆弱性评估模型以及由对外依存度、能源消耗弹性指数、能源储量比、能源生产弹性指数、运输线路长度和人均GDP构成的评价指标体系.采用因子分析法确定评价指标的权重系数,并对全国30个省(市、区)"十五"时期的常规能源(煤炭、石油和天然气)安全供给脆弱性进行定量评估.结果表明:①我国区域能源安全供给脆弱性程度整体上处于中等偏下水平,且呈现出"东高西低"的特征;②能源安全供给风险的应对能力差异是区域脆弱性分异的主导因素.     

Linking perceived land and water resources degradation,scarcity and livelihood conflicts in southwestern Tanzania: implications for sustainable rural livelihood

In Africa, the land and water resources quality are key factors for sustainable development. The degradation of the quality of these resources leads to scarcities and conflicts, which together threaten the sustainability of rural livelihoods. This work investigated and analysed the livelihoods conflicts over the land and water resources and their scarcities, policies that contributed to the land and water scarcities and the livelihood conflicts and linkage of the conflicts to the resources scarcities and degradation. Implications of degradation of the resources, development policies and livelihoods conflicts on sustainable development are discussed. Literature study, visits and discussions, participatory assessments, observations and questionnaire survey were used tools to collect data. Interviews of the 266 households revealed that, those experiencing the land and water scarcities and conflicts over these resources are significantly (p < 0.001) higher than those not experiencing the scarcities and conflicts. Crop-livestock competition, over the land and water resources causes prominent conflicts. A significant, (p < 0.05) associations of livelihoods conflicts to water shortage and period of water shortage for crop and livestock production were found. Improved accessibility to soil and water management technologies, wildlife–livestock co-existence, recognition of needs and land rights for pastoralists are recommended to minimize scarcities and herders versus farmers’ conflicts.     

A GIS-based DRASTIC vulnerability and net recharge reassessment in an aquifer of a semi-arid region (Metline-Ras Jebel-Raf Raf aquifer, Northern Tunisia)

This paper aims to elaborate new generic DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability maps of the coastal aquifer of Metline-Ras Jebel-Raf Raf (Northeast of Tunisia) using the GIS technique, making the data analyses easier to handle and providing better capabilities of dealing with large spatial data. A similar study was carried out in 1999 in the same aquifer using a method based on the soil water balance equation to determine the net recharge parameter. Unfortunately, the lack of data in the study area made the results unsatisfactory. By applying the Williams and Kissel equation and the Rao relationship, we intend to demonstrate that we could correctly evaluate the net recharge parameter. Moreover, new data related to the aquifer hydraulic conductivity, the soil cover and the vadose zone lithology have become available, and allowed us to elaborate suitable DRASTIC maps.     

祁连山北麓生态移民的生计风险与应对策略选择——以武威市为例

生计风险作为移民社会整合的标尺,已成为研究生态移民生计及可持续发展的重要视角。以祁连山北麓的武威市为例,利用Binary Logistic模型分析了移民生计风险对其应对策略的影响机制,以期为制定有效的生计风险防范体系提供科学支撑。结果表明：（1）武威市生态移民的生计类型以非农户为主,纯农户比例不足10%,生计多样化指数仅为1.74且存在显著的区域差异。（2）67.44%的移民面临着多重风险,以经济风险为主,生活开支大、新分棚圈耕地质量差、返贫是主要的风险要素。（3）应对策略主要为向亲朋借钱、银行贷款、外出打工和减少开支,后顾生计则多选择扩大养殖、长期打工和维持现状,不同县区移民的策略选择略有不同。（4）政策、福利和经济风险会显著影响移民对“向银行贷款”“减少开支”及“外出打工”等应对策略的选择,而后顾生计的选择更多受制于生计资本储量,而政策及经济风险的影响较低。移民户的类型对策略选择影响显著,非农型兼业户更倾向于选择“向银行贷款”和“扩大养殖”。     

A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: A tool for coastal managers?

Coastal hazard management involves the assessment of vulnerability in natural and human environments. Indices incorporating a diversity of indicators have therefore been used extensively to provide spatial analyses of the degree of vulnerability. Such indices are typically applied at global and national scales, and they involve varying degrees of simplification and aggregation of information. The degree of simplification that is desirable depends on the management scale, and higher resolution is required at the local compared to the global scale. To investigate the implications of spatial scale in depicting coastal hazard risk, coastal vulnerability indices were developed at national (Northern Ireland), local authority and site levels. Variables were separated into three sub-indices: a coastal characteristics sub-index concerned with the resilience and susceptibility of the coast to erosion, a coastal forcing sub-index to characterize the forcing variables contributing to wave-induced erosion and a socio-economic sub-index to assess the infrastructure potentially at risk. The three sub-indices were merged to calculate the overall index, which is portrayed in the form of colour-coded vulnerability maps. While a common tripartite index could be employed at national, regional and local scales, the nature of the data used to quantify many of the variables varies according to the scale of management. Some important local variations in vulnerability are masked by simplifications at the national scale. For some variables more detailed information is available as the spatial resolution of the study increases, while others become obsolete as data are of insufficient resolution to differentiate real variability at more detailed scales. The results highlight the importance of spatial scale in developing indices of vulnerability: while a common index architecture can be applied, the selection of variables must take account of the scale at which the hazard is to be assessed. It is likely that limits on index development will also be imposed by data availability at various scales.     

基于神经网络综合建模的区域城市群发展脆弱性评价——以滇中城市群为例

城市脆弱性是评价城市发展韧性状况的有效测度。目前我国对于城市脆弱性的研究以运用统计学方法评价特殊城市为主,尚未形成对区域城市群具有普遍适用性的科学客观评价方法。以滇中城市群为例,从环境系统、经济系统、社会系统三个方面综合构建城市脆弱性评价体系,采用熵值法和BP神经网络综合建模方法,对2007—2016年10年间滇中城市群的城市脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：滇中城市群的城市脆弱性总体呈现下降趋势,但城市组团之间差异较大,呈现出发展中的不均衡性。评价结果对滇中城市群韧性发展规划具有重要指导意义,为区域城市群发展脆弱性研究提供一种科学评价方法。     

氟化工园区及周边地下水健康风险及脆弱性评价

以阜新市某氟化工园区为研究对象,对园区及周边地下水样品中的Cr、As、Cu、Hg、Mn及F 6种元素分季节进行测定分析,采用美国环保署（US EPA）推荐的人体健康风险评价模型对重金属Cr、As、Cu、Hg、Mn及F进行地下水环境的人体健康风险评价,并应用DRASTIC模型评价该区域地下水的脆弱性.结果表明,研究区地下水受到重金属和氟化物的污染.健康风险评价表明,总致癌风险数量级在10^-5~10^-4之间,处于Ⅱ~Ⅳ级风险评价标准区间,总非致癌风险大于1,经饮水摄入途径引起的非致癌危害比皮肤接触途径高3~4个数量级.脆弱性评价表明,研究区的脆弱性指数DI范围为4.30~5.91,整体脆弱性处于Ⅲ级中等脆弱性水平.     

北京密怀顺地区地下水污染风险评价方法探究

地下水污染风险评价通常由地下水污染荷载评价与固有脆弱性评价叠加得到,但叠加方法众多,且缺乏各个方法之间的对比验证.本研究选取北京密怀顺地区作为示例,利用GIS平台进行构图表征,对比了相加法、矩阵法和计算法3种地下水污染风险的叠加方法,并利用硝酸盐浓度等级与地下水污染风险评价等级的差值和Spearman等级相关因子两种指标,对以上3种叠加方法所获得的地下水污染风险评价结果进行验证,旨在探究最优的地下水污染风险方法.结果表明,从硝酸盐浓度等级与地下水污染风险评价等级差值为0的区域占比来看,矩阵法(51.12%)相加法(32.29%)计算法(21.71%);从Spearman等级相关因子来看,矩阵法(ρ=93.19%)计算法(ρ=90.33%)相加法(ρ=89.23%).故研究区内地下水污染风险评价采用矩阵法得到的结果更准确、更可行,其评价结果比较真实地反映了北京密怀顺水源地污染风险状况,对城市规划建设和地下水资源的可持续利用具有指导意义.