Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.     

承灾体脆弱性评价指标中的量化方法探讨

承灾体脆弱性与人为因素有很大关系 ,承灾体脆弱性研究对区域减灾、减灾投资以及灾害保险等有着重要的意义 ,因此承灾体脆弱性评价则成为该项研究的关键。本文在采用层次分析法的基础上 ,探讨了承灾体脆弱性评价中的量化方法     

我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性

采用PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景,结合CERES-Rice作物模型数据,依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来(21世纪70年代)水稻的气候变化敏感性和脆弱性进行了研究.结果表明:受气候变化影响,未来我国绝大部分地区的雨养水稻将会减产,仅个别地区有增产趋势.负敏感区(减产区)主要集中在东北的辽宁和赤峰、华北平原大部、江淮及东南沿海地区;而在黑龙江西南部、福建大部、陕西与四川交界地区的雨养水稻有增产趋势.我国的灌溉水稻也以减产为主,负敏感区主要集中在辽宁、吉林西部、华北地区、陕西、宁夏、新疆南部、淮河流域、长江中下游及其以南广大水稻主产区;增产区主要集中在黑龙江西南部、内蒙古东部地区及陕西与湖北交界等地.未来我国雨养水稻的脆弱区主要分布在:(1)东北地区的中南部;(2)山东北部及淮河流域;(3)南部沿海和海南岛;(4)西南地区.未来我国灌溉水稻的脆弱区面积较大,主要分布在辽宁、黄河中游和下游、新疆南部及广西大部地区.     

雷电灾害潜在与现实易损性分析及区划研究——以黑龙江省为例

提出雷电灾害的潜在易损性和现实易损性概念,利用黑龙江省1959-2008年的雷暴日资料及1999-2008年的雷电灾害资料,结合黑龙江省的经济和人口密度特征,提出了雷暴日数、雷电灾害频度、生命易损模数及经济易损模数作为雷电灾害易损性评估指标。在此基础上,采用4级区分法对各指标进行了分级,并赋予各等级如下定值:极高级为1.0,高级为0.8,中级为0.5,低级为0.2。对黑龙江省各地市4个评估指标的等级值进行加权平均,得到权重平均值作为雷电灾害易损性评估的综合评价指数。最后通过对黑龙江省各地市雷电灾害易损性进行综合评估,形成黑龙江省雷电灾害易损度区划。结果表明:哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔和绥化潜在易损度和现实易损度皆高,综合易损度为极高易损区。伊春、大兴安岭、黑河潜在易损度很高,而现实易损度最低,故综合易损度为高易损区。鹤岗、鸡西潜在易损度较低,现实易损度较高,综合易损度为中易损区;七台河潜在易损度最低,但现实易损度高,综合易损度同样为中易损区。佳木斯、双鸭山、牡丹江潜在易损度和现实易损度皆低,综合易损度为低易损区。     

A Landscape Approach for Detecting and Evaluating Change in a Semi-Arid Environment

Vegetation change in the American West has been a subject of concern throughout the twentieth century. Although many of the changes have been recorded qualitatively through the use of comparative photography and historical reports, little quantitative information has been available on the regional or watershed scale. It is currently possible to measure change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in southeast Arizona and northeast Sonora, Mexico using a system of landscape pattern measurements derived from satellite remote sensing, spatial statistics, process modeling, and geographic information systems technology. These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape composition and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an effective and economical method for evaluating watershed condition related to disturbance from human and natural stresses. The project utilizes the database from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) project which incorporates triplicate Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) imagery from the early 1970s, mid 1980s, and the 1990s. Landscape composition and pattern metrics have been generated from digital land cover maps derived from the NALC images and compared across a nearly 20-year period. Results about changes in land cover for the study period indicate that extensive, highly connected grassland and desertscrub areas are the most vulnerable ecosystems to fragmentation and actual loss due to encroachment of xerophytic mesquite woodland. In the study period, grasslands and desertscrub not only decreased in extent but also became more fragmented. That is, the number of grassland and desertscrub patches increased and their average patch sizes decreased. In stark contrast, the mesquite woodland patches increased in size, number, and connectivity. These changes have important impact for the hydrology of the region, since the energy and water balance characteristics for these cover types are significantly different. The process demonstrates a simple procedure to document changes and determine ecosystem vulnerabilities through the use of change detection and indicator development, especially in regard to traditional degradation processes that have occurred throughout the western rangelands involving changes of vegetative cover and acceleration of water and wind erosion.     

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.