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81.
Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.  相似文献   
82.
Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km2 watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r2 = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.  相似文献   
83.
Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.  相似文献   
84.

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (xi) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(xi|μi), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.  相似文献   
85.
Strandberg M  Damgaard C  Degn HJ  Bak J  Nielsen KE 《Ambio》2012,41(4):393-401
We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0251-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   
86.
西安市城市主干道路面径流初期冲刷效应   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
以西安市城市主干道南二环太白路高架桥为路面径流采样区域,采用人工等时间间隔采样方法,在桥梁排水立管对2010年9—11月的3场径流事件进行全程采样,测试径流过程SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、溶解性Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的浓度变化,研究路面径流的初期冲刷效应及其影响因素。结果表明,西安市城市主干道路面径流污染严重,降雨数小时后的末期径流仍具有较高的污染水平;径流过程污染物浓度变化规律与其赋存形态有关,SS、COD、Pb等以颗粒态为主的污染物的浓度随雨强变化剧烈波动,NH3-N、溶解态COD、溶解态Zn等以溶解态为主的污染物浓度变化受雨强影响较小,随径流过程呈逐渐减小趋势;路面径流初期冲刷现象并非普遍存在,与污染物的赋存状态和场次降雨特征密切相关,溶解态污染物易于出现初期冲刷现象,颗粒态污染物是否出现初期冲刷与场次降雨特征有关;测试的3场径流事件初期30%的径流携带的SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的负荷占场次径流总负荷的比例分别为21.8%~50.0%、25.5%~49.3%、36.3%~52.6%、52.6%~66.7%、26.8%~45.0%、27.2%~63.4%和36.2%~62.6%,表明仅对初期径流进行治理无法实现对西安市路面径流污染的有效控制。  相似文献   
87.
以2010年8月湘江干流株洲段代表性断面水质与底泥监测资料以及其他资料为基础,采用WASP7模型模拟该江段丰水期镉浓度,并进行镉污染负荷测算与分配。研究结果表明,WASP7模型较好地重现了镉浓度的变化规律,8月份该河段上游镉入流量2 446.33 kg,下游出流量3 076.44 kg,区间增量630.12 kg,其中点源负荷量241.67 kg,占38.4%,面源负荷量304.49 kg,占48.3%,内源负荷量为83.96 kg,占13.3%。  相似文献   
88.
研究了在厌氧条件下以葡萄糖为基质的厌氧序批式反应器(ASBR)中冲击负荷对基质吸收和储存的影响及其恢复重建过程.结果表明,正常状态下,反应器在进水COD为5 000.0 mg/L,出水COD为188.6 mg/L,当进水负荷提高至正常状态2倍后,反应器中COD大量累积,其中51.13%为挥发性有机酸(VFA),48.87%则被转化为糖原储存在细胞体内,出水COD最高为2 368.9 mg/L,污泥糖原储存量最高为273.55 mg/g(以挥发性固体计),是正常状态的4.2倍.在冲击负荷条件下,反应器的产甲烷能力恢复较快,胞内糖原储存恢复较慢,出水COD和胞内糖原分别经过20、41 d后恢复冲击负荷前水平.  相似文献   
89.
Lake Pamvotis is a shallow Mediterranean lake located in Western Greece near the city of Ioannina. The lake has been recognized as an internationally important conservation site under European Community legislation due to its rich biodiversity. However, during the last three decades the trophic status of the lake has changed as a result of anthropogenic activity (among others irrigation and domestic sewage discharge), resulting in serious problems. Here we present data about the long-term development in eutrophication of Lake Pamvotis. Water samples were collected and analyzed (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, chlorophyll-a) during three monitoring periods: 1985-1989, 1998-1999, 2004-2005. The high nutrient concentrations in the lake water during the three monitoring periods, as well as its eutrophic to hypertrophic status reflect the degree of impact anthropogenic activity has had on the lake. Commencement of a restoration plan in 1995-1996, involving sewage diversion, led to a reduction in external nutrient load and consequently to lower in-lake nutrients and Chlorophyll-a concentrations. Orthophosphate concentration decreased by about 87%, nitrates fell below 1.20mg/l, whilst the total reduction of inorganic N compounds showed a weaker downward trend, fluctuating between 0.39 and 1.24mg N/l with an average value of 0.76mg N/l. However, after a short-term recovery the eutrophic status of the lake remains eight years later (2004-2005), suggesting the importance of the internal loading process and the absence of the top-down effect of fish. This study provides evidence for the need of greater restoration efforts utilized in Mediterranean shallow lakes.  相似文献   
90.
We documented valley and channel characteristics and wood loads in 19 reaches of forested headwater mountain streams in the Bighorn National Forest of northern Wyoming. Ten of these reaches were in the Upper Tongue River watershed, which has a history of management including timber harvest, tie floating, and road construction. Nine reaches were in the North Rock Creek watershed, which has little history of management activities. We used these data to test hypotheses that (i) valley geometry correlates with wood load, (ii) stream gradient correlates with wood load, and (iii) wood loads are significantly lower in managed watersheds than in otherwise similar unmanaged watersheds. Statistical analyses of the data support the first and third hypotheses. Stream reaches with steeper valley side slopes tend to have higher wood loads, and reaches in managed watersheds tend to have lower wood loads than reaches in unmanaged watersheds. Results do not support the second hypothesis. Shear stress correlated more strongly with wood load than did stream gradient, but statistical models with valley-scale variables had greater explanatory power than statistical models with channel-scale variables. Wood loads in stream reaches within managed watersheds in the Bighorn National Forest tend to be two to three times lower than wood loads in unmanaged watersheds.  相似文献   
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