Monitoring the growth of American beech affected by beech bark disease in Maine using the Kalman filter

The effect of beech bark disease on tree growth was tracked using paired resistant and susceptible American beech trees in two locations in Maine. Within each site, the paired trees were chosen in close proximity and with similar morphological characteristics (e.g. stem diameter and crown class) to minimize environment effects in subsequent analysis. A Kalman filter approach was employed to analyse the yearly time-dependent mean differences between paired susceptible and resistant tree-ring widths using simple structural time series models in state space form. On one site, under the influence of a moderate maritime climate, stand dynamics is hypothesized to account for the 34 year difference in onset of decline of trees in codominant, versus those in the intermediate crown classes. The harsher winter conditions associated with the second, more northerly site and known to limit the insect component of the disease complex, are hypothesized to be more of a factor in the close (six year) difference in decline onset between the two crown classes on this site. Some strengths and cautions in the Kalman filter approach are discussed in relation to the analysis of time-dependent trends in tree-ring series.     

镇雄县乌江水系郭家河流域污染现状调查及总量预测分析

对郭家河流域进行系统的数据收集、实地调查、污染因子监测,并通过总量预测分析,掌握境内乌江水系郭家河流域各污染源,确定流域水质超标主要原因,提出针对性的保护措施。     

污染源废水中pH值评价方法初探

对污染源废水中pH值评价方法进行了初步研究，并利用该方法对酸性废水及碱性废水进行等标评价，通过评价揭示了阜新市工业污染废水的酸碱度对环境污染的贡献，同时描述了PH值之外其它污染物对环境污染程度。     

Inaccurate estimation of risk in second trimester serum screening for Down syndrome among women who have already had first trimester screening

Problems can arise in prenatal screening for Down syndrome when tests are performed in the first and second trimester and some women who have a negative first trimester test have a second trimester serum test. The second test result does not usually take account of the previous one being negative. Even if it does, it is often inaccurate. Using published data the extent of the error was examined. The age-specific risk of an affected pregnancy in such women will be lower than if no first trimester test had been performed. The distributions of the screening markers in affected and unaffected pregnancies will be different from those in unscreened women. If the appropriate age-specific risk and marker distributions are not used, error will arise. For example, a 35-year-old woman with nuchal translucency (NT), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels at the normal median would have a risk of 1 in 6500. If she then had the Triple Test with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol, and hCG levels of 0.7, 0.7 and 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM), respectively, her risk, ignoring the previous result, would be overestimated (1 in 95 compared with the correct estimate of 1 in 705). If the previous result was included, but the age-specific risk and second trimester marker distributions were not revised, her risk would be underestimated (1 in 820). If the correct age-specific risk and screening marker distributions were used, risk estimates would be accurate, but two tests would be less efficient than integrating all the screening information into a single test. The practice of offering second trimester serum screening to women who have already been screened is best avoided. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于OUR-HPR测量在线估计活性污泥合成PHA量

活性污泥工艺是一种具有重要应用前景的工业化生产聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的方法.当前PHA测量主要采用离线分析方法,时间滞后、分析操作复杂,不适于PHA生产过程控制.本研究基于活性污泥同时储存生长-溶解性微生物产物模型(SSAG-SMP),认为在饱食(外部有机碳基质充足)期间,聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的合成速率与氧利用速率(OUR)及氢离子产生速率(HPR)呈线性关系,建立了一种基于OUR-HPR在线测量数据估计活性污泥合成PHA量的方法.本研究对乙酸作基质的不同浓度情况进行模拟,结果表明OUR及HPR的PHA合成的氧气消耗分数(kPHA,OUR)和质子消耗分数(kPHA,HPR)为常数,分别是0.67和0.57.利用建立的线性关系来预测饱食期PHA含量,结果显示预测值与实测值较为吻合,说明提出的基于OURHPR测量在线估计PHA合成量的方法可行.     

A Heat Dynamic Model for Intelligent Heating of Buildings

This article presents a heat dynamic model for prediction of the indoor temperature in an office building. The model has been used in several flexible load applications, where the indoor temperature is allowed to vary around a given reference to provide power system services by shifting the heating of the building in time. This way the thermal mass of the building can be used to absorb energy from renewable energy source when available and postpone heating in periods with lack of renewable energy generation. The model is used in a model predictive controller to ensure the residential comfort over a given prediction horizon.     

首都水源地——洋河流域人为源多环芳烃(PAHs)排放清单估算及其影响分析

洋河流域位于京西北上风向,是北京重要水源地和生态保护屏障,我国北方典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱敏感区,也是北京-张家口2022年冬奥会的申办地,具有极重要的战略地位.建立洋河流域大气PAHs排放清单,分析其可能来源及影响,通过气团后向轨迹辨识其区域PAHs传输途径,对于北京及张家口地区环境PAHs的污染控制具有重要的指导意义.本研究收集和分析了洋河流域大量工、农业生产和居民生活等相关数据资料,评估了流域各行业、各县市PAHs排放因子,单体排放量及其影响因素,通过气团后向轨迹模型分析了PAHs的传输轨迹.结果表明,洋河流域大气PAHs排放量为4.4×102t.从排放行业看,煤炭燃烧源、秸秆燃烧源是洋河流域大气PAHs的重要排放源,其贡献率分别为76%和16%.从排放地区看,宣化县的排放量最大,约49 t;其次分别为:兴和县、天镇县、怀来县、万全县,排放量分别约为:36、32、24和15 t.从排放谱看,低环(2~3环)与高环分子(4~6环)PAHs的排放量相差不大,分别约占PAHs排放总量的50%左右.洋河流域单位PAHs总排放量与各县市的工业生产总值(r=0.96,P<0.05)、居民收入(r=0.94,P<0.05)、人口密度呈正相关(r=0.92,P<0.05),与单位国土面积呈负相关(r=-0.9,P<0.05),与农业生产总值没有显著相关(r=0.026,P>0.01).流域内PAHs的较高排放与该地以煤炭为主的能源结构和较高的居民消费水平有关.基于气团后向轨迹模拟和洋河流域PAHs排放,可以推断洋河流域已成为PAHs的高污染风险区,通过西北气流可将流域高浓度的PAHs输送至北京,对北京的生态环境和人体健康造成潜在风险.     

铜离子的持续负荷对活性污泥生物硝化活性的影响

重金属对生物硝化的抑制是困扰很多污水处理厂脱氮效果的难题.本文采用间歇式活性污泥反应器(SBR),研究了模拟废水中不同浓度的Cu2+持续抑制及负荷停止后硝化效率、硝化细菌活性和Cu分布的变化.结果表明,硝化活性易受Cu2+的影响,抑制程度随着Cu2+浓度的增大和施加持续Cu2+负荷的运行周期的延长而提高,当活性污泥内、外吸附Cu的总量达(14.0±1.0)mg·g-1(以MLSS计)时,氨氮去除率降至26.5%±4.0%.Cu2+对氨氧化细菌(AOB)的抑制作用大于亚硝酸盐氧化细菌(NOB).在Cu2+负荷为10和20 mg·L-1的体系中,NOB可以全部或部分被驯化而适应含铜废水.恢复阶段,AOB和NOB的活性完全或部分恢复,恢复速率和程度随抑制期Cu2+投加浓度的增加而降低.反应体系内Cu主要分布在细胞内部和表面,且不易解析,硝化抑制率与溶解的Cu2+浓度呈负相关性.     

Fe3+掺杂纳米管TiO2光催化臭氧化去除水中腐植酸

HA(humic acids, 腐植酸)是一种难降解天然有机物,常规饮用水处理工艺很难将其去除. 采用水热合成法制备纳米管TiO₂,并通过TEM(透射电镜)、XRD(X射线衍射)、XPS(X射线光电子能谱)和BET比表面积分析对催化剂进行表征,考察纳米管TiO₂光催化臭氧化对HA的去除效果. 结果表明:①254 nm紫外光照射下,500 ℃煅烧纳米管TiO₂催化臭氧化HA的工艺去除效果最佳,HA去除率可达42.1%,较单独臭氧化工艺提高92.2%. ②采用Fe³⁺掺杂纳米管TiO₂催化臭氧化工艺时,Fe³⁺掺杂量为1.0%(原子百分含量),煅烧温度为550 ℃时,催化效果最好,HA去除率可达79.5%. ③HA去除率高于TOC,0~10min内该现象更为明显. ④考察陶粒和活性炭负载Fe³⁺掺杂纳米管TiO₂的催化效果及催化次数对催化性能的影响发现,陶粒和活性炭负载Fe³⁺掺杂纳米管TiO₂存在下,HA去除率分别为85.1%和97.7%,使用4次后,HA去除率分别为73.9%和82.8%.     

双控下翻式车窗逃生装置设计及试验研究

为克服传统逃生装置存在的破坏性、开启困难和二次伤害等问题,提高车辆逃生装置的实用性,设计出一种用电磁和机械开关双重控制的、下翻式可折叠车用新型逃生车窗。逃生窗的机械系统为操作轻便的下翻式结构,下翻后可形成牢固的一级阶梯,便于车内乘客撤离。该车窗由电磁开关和机械开关并联控制,可分别开启下翻机构,以提高可靠性。对逃生窗机械结构的有限元分析表明,改进后的逃生窗结构有足够的承载能力,能够保证车内乘客安全撤离。静态和动态的逃生试验显示,逃生车窗能被迅速开启、便于人员撤离。