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331.
332.
运用系统模型的辨识方法,讨论了环境-经济系统双向控制模型的辨识问题,重点探讨了这类模型体系中的最优控制模型,其途径是采用大系统建模思想.即在对大系统结构分析基础上,通过分解把整体建模转化为易于处理的子系统建模,再通过建立关联模型,得到整体模型,并进一步简化和进行参数辨识. 相似文献
333.
在能量平衡方法的基础上提出一套利用常规气象资料求取边界层参数的改进方案。利用中国科学院大气物理研究所铁塔观测资料,与廓线法进行对比分析,表明这种方案具有输入要求少,输出信息量大,结果合理的优点。此外,对此方案中的4个可变参数作了敏感性试验,结果表明湿度变化参数α的敏感性较强,在使用时应当合理选择其数值。该方案可以满足新一代空气质量模式对边界层参数化的需求。同时,由于仅需常规气象资料就能求取所有的边界层参数,因此特别适合于空气质量模式的法规应用。 相似文献
334.
Michael William Mullen Bruce E. Allison 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(3):655-662
ABSTRACT: Forces driving the initiation of watershed management activities in Alabama have ranged from top-down, agency-led initiatives to bottom-up, citizen-led initiatives. A number of watershed projects in Alabama were examined including three NPS projects funded by U.S. EPA grants and a more comprehensive locally-initiated watershed management authority. Watershed projects were categorized into four different models. Factors which produced significant differences in the development and utilization of social capital and local capacities for watershed management were investigated. The success of watershed management initiatives was examined qualitatively and appears to correlate with a number of social factors. These factors include the extent of stakeholder involvement, the availability of social capital in the watershed, and the presence of a real or perceived water resource concern or problem. Both short term project success and the longer term prognosis for continued watershed management activities seems to depend most upon the amount of social capital in the watershed. Two major changes in resource management programs and organizations could lead to increased focus on and support for local watershed management initiatives. These are reorganization of resource management agencies around watershed units, and assignment of at least one staff person in each watershed unit to watershed management. 相似文献
335.
336.
有机物料对石灰性土壤磷素形态转化及吸附特性的影响研究 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
利用石灰性土壤,对猪粪(DR)、夏玉米秸秆(MR)和冬小麦秸秆(WR)单施或者与磷肥混施(在等磷量条件下)对土壤磷的吸附特性及其形态转化进行了为期15周的室内模拟培养研究.结果表明,无论是DR、MR和WR单施,还是有机物料与磷肥混施,都可以减少土壤对磷的吸附量,增加土壤磷的活性,其中有机物料单施处理的用NaHCO3或者NaOH提取的活性无机磷(Pi)和有机磷(Po)提高较大,顺序为:猪粪>夏玉米秸秆>冬小麦秸秆.夏玉米秸秆处理与对照(CK)相比NaHCO3提取的Pi、Po增加的量分别为6 0mg·kg-1,5 6mg·kg-1,NaOH提取的Po增加的量为12 7mg·kg-1,而猪粪处理与CK相比NaHCO3提取的Pi、Po增加的量分别为7 1mg·kg-1,5 4mg·kg-1,NaOH提取的Po增加的量为14 1mg·kg-1.通过Langmuir方程求得磷的最大吸附量(b)、磷吸附结合能常数(k)、磷素最大缓冲量(MPBC)、标准需磷量(SPR)的值,进一步说明了3种有机物料均可使土壤对磷的吸附能力降低,增加土壤中磷的活性. 相似文献
337.
为提高腐蚀管道失效压力的预测精度并简化其计算过程,提出基于粗糙集(RS)和粒子群算法(PSO)融合极限学习机(ELM)的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型。通过属性约简提取影响失效压力的关键因素,选用PSO优化ELM的输入权值和隐含层偏差,将归一化的核心指标数据代入计算。结果表明:该模型预测结果与实际值基本一致,与单一ELM模型相比,预测结果的均方差(MSE)降至0.255;与其他蚀管道失效压力评价模型相比,该模型预测结果的绝对误差平均值降至0.32。 相似文献
338.
The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (Pmax), explosion index (Kst), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on Pmax and Kst. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene. 相似文献
339.
Diogo Alagador 《Conservation biology》2023,37(2):e14026
Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them. 相似文献
340.
Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection. 相似文献