RS-PSO-ELM下腐蚀管道失效压力预测

为提高腐蚀管道失效压力的预测精度并简化其计算过程,提出基于粗糙集(RS)和粒子群算法(PSO)融合极限学习机(ELM)的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型。通过属性约简提取影响失效压力的关键因素,选用PSO优化ELM的输入权值和隐含层偏差,将归一化的核心指标数据代入计算。结果表明:该模型预测结果与实际值基本一致,与单一ELM模型相比,预测结果的均方差(MSE)降至0.255;与其他蚀管道失效压力评价模型相比,该模型预测结果的绝对误差平均值降至0.32。     

Risk assessment method of polyethylene dust explosion based on explosion parameters

The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (P_max), explosion index (K_st), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on P_max and K_st. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene.     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Boosting large-scale river connectivity restoration by planning for the presence of unrecorded barriers

Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection.     

泸州市降水监测布点优化研究

在泸州市2016—2020年大气降水监测数据的基础上,借助聚类分析、多元方差分析等统计分析手段,对原有降水监测点位进行优化研究,并验证优化结果。在遵循《酸沉降监测技术规范》(HJ/T 165—2004)点位布设要求的前提下,建立了降水监测点位评价体系,从原有7个降水监测点位中优化筛选出3个。优化后的点位对监测结果的影响显著性均>0.05,表明优化前后全市降水数据无显著性差异,该优化方案不会影响区域整体代表性。     

基于指标规范值的地表水水质的模糊综合评价

传统的模糊综合评价法用于地表水水质评价,当指标数较多时需要设计很多隶属函数,设计和计算工作量皆很大,实际使用不便。在设定指标参照值和规范变换式基础上,将指标按各级标准规范值相近程度进行适当分类,只需分类设计隶属函数即可,大幅减少了计算工作量,使模糊综合评价法应用于地表水水质评价变得简化。     

超声波加湿室内微生物气溶胶浓度与优化方法

为明确超声波加湿对冬季供暖室内微生物气溶胶粒径与浓度分布的影响,以及降低暴露风险的有效方法,针对典型办公室环境,基于模拟实验法与正交试验法,探究不同相对湿度(RH=40％、55％、70％)、加湿器水质(蒸馏水、自来水、凉白开)和窗户开度(0、1/6、1/3)下,超声波加湿前后室内细菌、真菌气溶胶按粒径分级的浓度变化,并...     

大规模突发事件中基于满意度的应急物资优化调度模型

建立了大规模突发事件下供给点应急物资供应数量小于应急点应急物资需求数量的应急物资管理调度模型。同时结合大规模突发事件的特点,将模型设为多时段动态变化的,能使有限资源达到最大救援效用的多物资、多种运输方式、多运输车辆的物资优化调度模型,并根据不同应急点对物资需求的重要程度不同引入权重系数,使应急救援初期有限资源的分配达到整体的最大满意度。结合模型特点,给出模型的求解算法,并通过一个算例验证模型和算法的有效性。最后得出,以整体应急点的满意度作为具有多货物多起止点多运输方式等特点的应急物资调度问题的目标函数,能使应急救援过程达到最大的救援效率。     

混合液体火灾爆炸危险性——闪点预测与实验研究

支持向量机应用核函数技术,已经成为当前国际上一个研究的热点,由于支持向量机具有良好的理论基础和泛化性能,可将其引入到混合液体闪点预测的研究之中,以期建立准确、高效的预测模型。本文建立了一个基于支持向量机的理论模型,用于预测二元互溶混合液体的闪点。根据所研究混合液体的物理性质,选择了纯物质的粘度、表面张力、配比、燃烧下限等物理参数来表征闪点,以这些参数作为输入参数,二元混合液体的闪点作为输出值,应用支持向量机方法对两者之间的内在定量关系进行模拟。结果表明,闪点预测值与实验值符合良好。本方法的提出为工程上提出了一种预测二元互溶液体闪点的有效方法,可应用于评估混合溶液的火灾爆炸危害性及本质较安全设计。     

再生水水质稳定性评价指标与体系

污水再生利用是缓解水资源短缺的有效手段,水质稳定性是再生水等水资源安全利用的前提,稳定的水质能有效防止腐蚀和结垢的频繁发生,不仅有利于改善水质的感官性状,还能减少二次污染和能源消耗,为推进污水资源化利用,对再生水的水质稳定性进行评价和管理尤为重要.在文献资料调研的基础上,分别总结了化学稳定性和生物稳定性评价指标的特点及...