基于响应面法的煤矿钻孔随钻超声成像仪器受力部件优化设计*

摘要:为研制适用于煤矿瓦斯抽采钻孔、满足施工强度要求的小尺寸随钻超声成像仪器，对随钻超声成像仪器的关键受力部位——超声探头安装孔进行优化设计，分析煤矿瓦斯抽采钻孔的一般规格，建立超声探头安装孔的三维模型，确定关键参数类型及其取值范围，采用极差分析法找到对受力部件强度影响较大的参数，基于响应面法开展有限元数值模拟，运用Box-Behnken设计方法得到超声探头安装孔关键参数与仪器受力部件性能指标的关系，优化受力部件关键参数的数值。结果表明:优化前最大的等效应力为138.6 MPa，优化后受力部件最大等效应力较优化前降低9.05%。结论验证了设计方法的有效性，为煤矿抽采钻孔随钻测井仪器的研制提供思路。     

Correlation and persistence of hunting and logging impacts on tropical rainforest mammals

Humans influence tropical rainforest animals directly via exploitation and indirectly via habitat disturbance. Bushmeat hunting and logging occur extensively in tropical forests and have large effects on particular species. But how they alter animal diversity across landscape scales and whether their impacts are correlated across species remain less known. We used spatially widespread measurements of mammal occurrence across Malaysian Borneo and recently developed multispecies hierarchical models to assess the species richness of medium‐ to large‐bodied terrestrial mammals while accounting for imperfect detection of all species. Hunting was associated with 31% lower species richness. Moreover, hunting remained high even where richness was very low, highlighting that hunting pressure persisted even in chronically overhunted areas. Newly logged sites had 11% lower species richness than unlogged sites, but sites logged >10 years previously had richness levels similar to those in old‐growth forest. Hunting was a more serious long‐term threat than logging for 91% of primate and ungulate species. Hunting and logging impacts across species were not correlated across taxa. Negative impacts of hunting were the greatest for common mammalian species, but commonness versus rarity was not related to species‐specific impacts of logging. Direct human impacts appeared highly persistent and lead to defaunation of certain areas. These impacts were particularly severe for species of ecological importance as seed dispersers and herbivores. Indirect impacts were also strong but appeared to attenuate more rapidly than previously thought. The lack of correlation between direct and indirect impacts across species highlights that multifaceted conservation strategies may be needed for mammal conservation in tropical rainforests, Earth's most biodiverse ecosystems. Correlación y Persistencia de los Impactos de la Caza y la Tala sobre los Mamíferos de los Bosques Tropicales     

Corruption and forest concessions

We examine how corruption impacts a central government's application of concession policy instruments consisting of royalty rates, concession size, environmentally sensitive logging levels, and enforcement. Harvesters have incentives to illegally log by taking more volume than is allowed, high grading through removal of only the highest valued and best formed trees, and shirking environmentally sensitive logging requirements, all of which reduce public goods produced from native tropical forests. Corruption is introduced through logging inspectors who can be bribed by harvesters to avoid fines associated with illegal logging. Both the theory and a simulation are used to compare policy design under corruption and no corruption.     

洞庭湖垸外灾害风险区湖洲高效生态农业模式研究

为了协调好防灾减灾与湖洲农业综合开发的关系,运用灾害学和循环经济学以及农业、林业、牧业、水产、生态、系统工程等科学交叉的理论与方法,将灾害防控技术体系、农业生产方式与高效生态农业结构的优化机理融为一体,设计了湖草洲畜、禽、鱼一体化开发的灭螺治鼠防洪技术集成模式,荻芦洲荻、芦、林、牧、农一体化开发的灭螺治鼠抗洪技术集成模式。并分别在典型区域进行了示范,试验表明：与传统农业生方式相比,生态、经济、社会三大效益十分显著。同时致力于湖洲农业产业化,认为在建设好优势农产品生产基地的基础上,大力发展与之相配套的产品加工等商品服务体系和市场体系,促进荻、芦、林、牧等产品精、深加工,延伸产业链,提高产品附加值,从整体上提高湖洲高效生态农业模式的综合效益,使之成为湖区农业经济的新增长点。     

Patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in tropical semi-deciduous forests in Ghana

This study was conducted to determine the patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in Bobiri and Oboyow Forest Reserves (BFR and OFR, respectively), Ghana. Landsat images were employed to determine forest land cover types and changes in 1990, 2000 and 2010 using supervised classification method. Factors that drive forest land cover changes in the forest reserves were determined using a semi-structured questionnaire and field observations. Generally, closed-canopy forest decreased by 49% in both forests over 20-year period resulting in a tremendous increase in open-canopy forest (BFR: 85%; OFR: 46%) and non-forest land cover types (BFR: 48–80% OFR: 127–350%). Factors such as logging manual illiteracy among timber operators, offences of authorised timber operators, ineffective community participation, harvesting schedule revision, chainsaw logging, illegal logging, bushfires, fuel gathering and weak penalty for offences were identified as contributing to rapid depletion of closed canopy forest cover in the forest reserves.     

洪涝灾害灾情时间变化特性分析：以中国1736—1911年主要大江大？…

利用已经建立的全国１７３６￣１９１１年洪涝灾害时间序列,拟合各个区域的洪涝灾害长期变化趋势,并通过功率谱分析了时间序列的波动规律;同时,分析了气温、降水等自然因素的变化和人口总量变化、人口空间迁移以及土地利用变化等人文因素变化与灾害增减之间的关系。结果表明,洪涝灾害的波动主要由气候变化等自然因素的波动所引起,而人类活动增强并不断向高风险区扩展是洪涝灾害持续增长的主要原因,最终使洪涝灾害表现为波动中     

洞庭湖区’99洪涝灾害后减灾战略的思考

进入 90年代以来 ,洞庭湖区除了 1 990、 1 992、 1 997年以外 ,连年出现高危水位。文章分析了洞庭湖连年高危水位的原因 ,同时分析了 1 999年洪水的特点。面向 2 1世纪 ,提出了洞庭湖减灾中应重视的几个问题     

Three-dimensional diffusion of non-sorbing species in porous sandstone: computer simulation based on X-ray microtomography using synchrotron radiation

The diffusion pathways of porous sandstone were examined by a three-dimensional (3-D) imaging technique based on X-ray computed tomography (CT) using the SPring-8 (Super Photon ring-8 GeV, Hyogo, Japan) synchrotron radiation facility. The analysis was undertaken to develop better understanding of the diffusion pathways in natural rock as a key factor in clarifying the detailed mechanism of the diffusion of radionuclides and water molecules through the pore spaces of natural barriers in underground nuclear waste disposal facilities. A cylindrical sample (diameter 4 mm, length 6 mm) of sandstone (porosity 0.14) was imaged to obtain a 3-D image set of 450(3) voxels=2.62(3) mm(3). Through cluster-labeling analysis of the 3-D image set, it was revealed that 89% of the pore space forms a single large pore-cluster responsible for macroscopic diffusive transport, while only 11% of the pore space is made up of isolated pores that are not involved in long-range diffusive transport. Computer simulations of the 3-D diffusion of non-sorbing random walkers in the largest pore cluster were performed to calculate the surface-to-volume ratio of the pore, tortuosity (diffusion coefficient in free space divided by that in porous rock). The results showed that (i) the simulated surface-to-volume ratio is about 60% of the results obtained by conventional pulsed-field-gradient proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) laboratory experiments and (ii) the simulated tortuosity is five to seven times larger than the results of laboratory diffusion experiments using non-sorbing I(-) and Br(-). These discrepancies are probably attributed to the intrinsic sample heterogeneity and limited spatial resolution of the CT system. The permeability was also estimated based on the NMR diffusometry theory using the results of the random walk simulations via the Kozeny-Carman equation. The estimated permeability involved an error of about 20% compared with the permeability measured by the conventional method, suggesting that the diffusometry-based NMR well logging with gradient coils is applicable to the in-situ permeability measurement of strata. The present study demonstrated that X-ray CT using synchrotron radiation is a powerful tool for obtaining 3-D pore structure images without the beam-hardening artifacts inevitable in conventional CT using X-ray tubes.     

Toward Meaningful Snag-Management Guidelines for Postfire Salvage Logging in North American Conifer Forests

Abstract:  The bird species in western North America that are most restricted to, and therefore most dependent on, severely burned conifer forests during the first years following a fire event depend heavily on the abundant standing snags for perch sites, nest sites, and food resources. Thus, it is critical to develop and apply appropriate snag-management guidelines to implement postfire timber harvest operations in the same locations. Unfortunately, existing guidelines designed for green-tree forests cannot be applied to postfire salvage sales because the snag needs of snag-dependent species in burned forests are not at all similar to the snag needs of snag-dependent species in green-tree forests. Birds in burned forests have very different snag-retention needs from those cavity-nesting bird species that have served as the focus for the development of existing snag-management guidelines. Specifically, many postfire specialists use standing dead trees not only for nesting purposes but for feeding purposes as well. Woodpeckers, in particular, specialize on wood-boring beetle larvae that are superabundant in fire-killed trees for several years following severe fire. Species such as the Black-backed Woodpecker ( Picoides arcticus ) are nearly restricted in their habitat distribution to severely burned forests. Moreover, existing postfire salvage-logging studies reveal that most postfire specialist species are completely absent from burned forests that have been (even partially) salvage logged. I call for the long-overdue development and use of more meaningful snag-retention guidelines for postfire specialists, and I note that the biology of the most fire-dependent bird species suggests that even a cursory attempt to meet their snag needs would preclude postfire salvage logging in those severely burned conifer forests wherein the maintenance of biological diversity is deemed important.