埋地管线腐蚀模型及地震随机反应分析

埋地管线在使用过程中会出现不同程度的腐蚀现象。由于管线腐蚀受到周围土壤性质、输送介质等不确定因素的影响,其腐蚀状态会呈现随机性的特点。本文利用带吸收壁的齐次马尔可夫链理论,提出了管线腐蚀发生的离散状态模型,并根据管线腐蚀线性发展模型,推导给出了管线截面面积随时间变化的概率模型。在此基础上,利用弹性地基梁原理建立了管线地震反应的表达式,并利用M on te-C arlo随机模拟方法进行了模拟分析。实例分析表明,本文建立的腐蚀模型可以较好地模拟埋地管线的腐蚀现象,并能获得在地震激励下腐蚀管线的随机反应。     

工业管道首次定期检验弯头壁厚减薄分析及检验对策

弯头壁厚减薄在工业管道首次定期检验过程中经常遇到,然而对其进行安全状况等级评定时经常评为4级,与实际不符.本文通过两个检验案例分析产生这种现象的原因,认为弯头的减薄并不都是由使用过程中造成的,而是弯头制造时产生的减薄,这种现象对工业管道的安全状况等级评定产生干扰,最后依据相关规范给检验人员提供解决措施,并有针对性的提出...     

海水管路冲刷腐蚀数值模拟研究现状

分析了海水管路冲刷腐蚀主要影响因素,总结了国内外学者在海水管路冲刷腐蚀数值模拟方面的研究成果,并在此基础上对海水管路冲刷腐蚀数值模拟研究方向作出了展望。随着计算流体力学的发展,有效地结合试验数据与数值模拟对海水管路冲刷腐蚀现象进行研究,可以更好地预测海水管路冲刷腐蚀发生的部位及腐蚀速度。     

城市天然气管网预警系统的研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网密度加大,由于天然气管理手段滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧增加。基于GIS技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析(QRA)模型,提出利用定量风险分析模型实现管网风险预警的方法。结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术,开发城市天然气管网预警系统,实现管网失效率分析、燃气事故扩散模拟、火灾及爆炸模拟、个人风险等值线绘制、社会风险分析等功能,能够进行区域性事故后果预测、个人风险和社会风险计算、安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作。     

海底油气管道的泄漏及预防

介绍了海底油气管道铺设特点,分析了海底管道破裂的原因主要是第三方损害,其次还有物理损伤、机械损伤、管线材质缺损、材料疲劳、管线内外表面腐蚀、不可抗力和外界条件变化等。提出了海底管道泄漏的有效预防措施,主要包括预防第三方损害和管线腐蚀、提高泄漏检测和监测能力、制定应急响应计划、鼓励公众参与、迅速实施应急响应计划五部分。     

城市地下管线系统可靠性分析

随着城市经济水平的提高、城市规模的扩大和现代化步伐的加快,城市地下管网越来越庞大,越来越复杂,种类也越来越多,所担负的城市人民群众赖以生存的物质基础的作用也越来越强。对城市地下管线失效的特点和系统可靠性进行深入分析,为政府部门做好日常安全管理工作,做出科学合理的决策,实现地下管线安全预警等提供依据,对预防事故发生和减少生命财产损失具有现实的指导意义。     

Metal Pollution Assessment of Surface Sediments Along a New Gas Pipeline in the Niger Delta (Nigeria)

Chromium, nickel, copper, zinc and cadmium were determined in sediments of the Niger Delta (Nigeria) in order to discriminate between natural metal sources and anthropogenic ones. Surface sediments were collected at seven sites along a new gas pipeline near Port Harcourt, between the New Calabar River and the Bonny River towards Bonny town. Chemical characterisation is obtained by hydrofluoric–nitric acid digestion procedure, providing the ‘total’ (‘residual’) metal contents. Information about the anthropogenic metal fraction was obtained by cold diluted hydrochloric acid extraction procedure. This ‘labile’ acid soluble fraction of metals, perhaps due to relatively recent inputs in the sediments, constitutes the fraction more likely to be available to marine organisms, and furnishes a first evaluation of the possible toxicity of sediments of this sensitive ecosystem. Zinc appears to be the most available of all the heavy metals: its ‘labile’ fraction attains 40–50% of the ‘total’ zinc in sediment. Sites near Port Harcourt city are the most contaminated. All the examined metals are one order of magnitude below the respective values proposed as a limit for toxicity and are comparable with those observed by other authors in similar Niger Delta areas. Some anomalous data found near Port Harcourt city suggest that zinc and cadmium are the metals that require further monitoring. Their anthropogenic source could be derived from urban and industrial sewage.     

最优加权组合模型在管道腐蚀预测中的应用

为构造海底混输管道腐蚀最优加权组合预测模型，针对传统非等间距GM(1,1)管道腐蚀预测模型中初始条件的选取问题，提出了新信息优先原理下的NEGM(1,1,τ)海底管道腐蚀速率预测模型，以充分发挥建模序列中各分量对预测系统的修正作用；引入ARIMA预测模型，在3个不同定权准则下与NEGM(1,1,τ)模型形成管道腐蚀加权组合预测模型，并通过评价指标函数实现组合模型的性能评价。研究结果表明:组合模型2的海底混输管道腐蚀速率预测值与实际值的平均相对误差为0.495 4%，评价指标函数RMSE,AARD和MAPE的值分别为0.1936%,0.1275%和0.595 3%，均优于其他2个准则下的组合模型。建立NEGM(1,1,τ)-ARIMA海底管道腐蚀速率最优加权组合预测模型，从多角度挖掘了管道腐蚀速率序列中的可靠信息，预测结果的可信度更高。     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

基于粗糙集的城市燃气管道破坏灾害演化诱发机制分析

利用粗糙集理论,在分析大量事故案例的基础上,构建城市燃气管道破坏事故的灾害演化网络模型,找出网络中各灾害事件的诱发因素,在此基础上,对诱发因素进行分级,并将分级的诱发因素作为条件属性,将各灾害事件是否发生作为决策属性;根据条件属性和决策属性,建立相应的数据信息表;对数据信息表中信息进行处理与计算,得到各个条件属性的上近似、下近似、正域,进而比较和计算分析得出可约简的条件属性,在此基础上,给出危机事件基于粗糙集的信息提取与不同条件下危机事件的预测分析。以交通封锁和交通堵塞两个危机事件的诱发过程为例来阐述上述方法,给出了在不同演化条件下交通封锁和交通堵塞是否发生以及发生概率。