长期施肥对稻田不同土层反硝化细菌丰度的影响

为了探讨长期施肥对稻田不同土层关键反硝化功能种群丰度的影响及核心驱动因子,以湖南宁乡长期施肥定位试验田为平台,选取不施肥（CK）、全量化肥（NPK）和秸秆还田（ST）3个处理,结合实时荧光定量PCR（qPCR）技术,系统分析了稻田不同土层（0~10,10~20,20~30,30~40cm）关键反硝化功能基因（narG、nirK和nirS）的丰度及其与土壤理化性质的内在联系.结果表明,相比于不施肥处理（CK）,施肥处理（NPK和ST）在0~40cm土层土壤SOC、TN、NO₃^--N、NH₄⁺-N和Olsen-P分别显著增加了2.2%~83.6%,3.5%~58.3%,70.8%~222.1%,0.9%~83.7%和16.5%~94.5%,pH值下降了0.31~0.67个单位;长期施用化肥和秸秆使narG、nirK和nirS基因丰度分别增加0.75~7.18倍,1.57~3.02倍和0.53~3.81倍,其中秸秆还田对反硝化细菌数量的影响比单施化肥更显著;稻田narG、nirK和nirS反硝化型细菌的丰度随土层深度增加而逐渐降低,具有明显的垂直分布特征;RDA分析结果显示,土壤养分如SOC和TN是影响水稻土narG、nirK和nirS反硝化型细菌垂直分布的关键因子,而pH值是调控反硝化细菌在稻田底土分布的核心驱动因子.研究结果可为提升稻田土壤肥力和减少稻田氮素损失和温室气体排放提供理论依据.     

Ranking of process safety cultures for risk-based inspections using indicative safety culture assessments

Although major hazard industries have no legal obligations to demonstrate a good safety culture, it is an increasingly important factor for risk-based inspections. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a relatively simple method for external indicative assessment of the process safety culture in major hazard industries. As a first step, a tool was developed. Second, the tool was successfully tested in a workshop with major hazard inspectors. After this ‘proof of concept’ and a few adaptations to improve the tool, quantitative evaluation and validation were carried out with a representative sample of major hazard inspectors in the Netherlands. In this stage, the tool comprised 30 questions, of which 19 sufficiently frequent valid responses were given for the validity test. The evaluations demonstrate that without specific preparations, inspection teams can use the tool to discriminate between plants with poor or good safety cultures. That is sufficient for ranking as additional input for risk-based inspection strategies. The resulting indicative ‘scores’ for safety culture correlate meaningfully with the quality of process safety management systems and the number of (legal) non-compliances, which were identified by the inspection team at the same occasion. The use of the tool can be further improved by training inspectors, making minor adaptations of the inspection process, and broadening the scope of a few questions. It is expected that external assessments of safety culture will become increasingly important not only for inspectorates, but also for a range of other external stakeholders.     

海洋大气环境对封套防护材料性能影响

目的探究铝塑型封套防护材料在湿热海洋大气自然环境贮存条件下性能衰退规律。方法通过优化铺层结构,采用SiO_x蒸镀双向拉伸聚酯膜作为外增强层,PA6共挤EVOH双向拉伸膜作为内增强层制备新型封套防护材料。在海洋大气环境试验站库内、棚下2种贮存条件下开展贮存试验,跟踪测试水蒸气透过率、氧气透过率、剥离力、拉断力和表面电阻率等关键性能,建立时间-性能影响曲线,同时记录材料内部湿度曲线和内置的金属圆片的锈蚀状态,以此评价海洋大气环境对铝塑型封套防护材料性能影响趋势。结果在经过180 d的贮存后,水蒸气透过率仍小于0.3 g/(cm²·24 h),自研的新型封套防护材料在库内和棚下贮存环境下的阻湿能力分别提高了29.8%和31.5%,且剥离力和拉断力未发生明显降低,表面电阻率处于10⁹~10¹¹Ω。结论通过降低水分子与外增强层分子的相互作用,可有效提高封套防护材料的阻隔能力,验证了多级防潮理念的科学性。     

长期施用化肥和有机肥对稻田土壤重金属及其有效性的影响

为研究长期施肥下红壤稻田土壤重金属累积及有效态分布特征,探讨其主要影响因子,选择持续了 35年的长期定位试验的不施肥(CK)、磷钾化肥(PK)、氮磷钾化肥(NPK)和不同比例有机肥化肥配施(M1NPK、M2NPK和M3NPK)等6个处理,分析了土壤化学指标、重金属全量(THM)和有效态的分布特征,以及重金属有效态含量与...     

ARIMA时间序列分析模型在臭氧浓度中长期预报中的应用

近年来,京津冀地区近地面臭氧浓度呈现上升趋势,臭氧污染超标情况严重.目前由于前体物源排放清单、臭氧生成和扩散的物理和化学过程机制存在不足等原因,导致了数值模型在预报夏季臭氧浓度时仍然存在较大偏差,而时间序列分析方法由于具有建模简单、计算成本低的特点,在臭氧污染预报中具有很好的应用前景.本研究利用华北区域大气本底站上甸子...     

城市黑臭水体治理技术及措施分析

城市黑臭水体治理是一个长期的系统工程,应因地制宜,选择合适的综合治理技术及措施。在分析我国黑臭水体的成因及特征污染物的基础上,重点阐述了控源截污、内源控制、生态修复、补水活水等黑臭水体治理的主要技术及措施,分析了不同技术的原理、特点和局限性。以镇江市玉带河、贵阳市南明河为实例,分析了黑臭水体治理采取的技术及措施。此外,剖析了良好水质长效保持机制,以期为我国城市黑臭水体治理提供参考。     

40 a施肥措施对黑土土壤酶化学计量特征的影响

为探究长期施肥措施对黑土土壤养分平衡和酶化学计量特征的影响,选取长期定位实验（40a）样地4种不同施肥处理：不施肥、施氮肥、施磷肥和氮磷混施,分别在2021年4月和2022年4月采集土壤样品,测定土壤4种水解酶活性并分析酶化学计量特征.结果表明,施氮和氮磷混施均显著提高酸性磷酸酶和β-D-葡萄糖苷酶活性,分别提高68% ~ 158%和26% ~ 222%.施磷和氮磷混施则显著影响β-N-乙酰氨基葡萄糖苷酶活性,其酶活性最高达75.48 nmol·（g·h）^-1和106.81 nmol·（g·h）^-1.双因素方差分析显示氮和磷输入对土壤酶活性均产生显著影响.冗余分析表明酶活性变化的主要影响因子为土壤pH值、微生物生物量磷和有效磷.通过计算酶化学计量比,发现氮处理显著增加酶矢量长度,其数值主要在1.32 ~ 1.52之间,而酶矢量角度均 > 45°,表明黑土主要受碳磷共同限制.通过以上分析可以发现40 a长期施肥处理对黑土土壤酶及资源利用策略有显著影响,研究结果为评估长期施肥处理对土壤养分平衡和可持续利用具有重要的生态学意义.     

长期施肥对旱塬麦田土壤大团聚体有机碳组分及冬小麦产量的影响

大团聚体是土壤有机碳固存的主要场所,对土壤肥力提升具有重要意义. 为揭示长期不同施肥措施下大团聚体有机碳的固持机制及产量效应,依托8 a定位试验,设不施肥（CK）、农户施肥（NP）、测控施肥（NPK）、测控+有机肥配施（NPKM）以及测控+生物有机肥配施（NPKB）这5个处理,采用“团聚体-密度”联合分组法,分析了黄土旱塬麦田土壤大团聚体中粗颗粒有机碳（cPOC）、细颗粒有机碳（fPOC）、微团聚体颗粒有机碳（iPOC）、游离态粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_f）和微团聚体粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_m）的变化特征及其与土壤碳投入和产量形成之间的关系. 结果表明,长期有机无机配施（NPKM和NPKB）较单施化肥（NP和NPK）显著提高了大团聚体中有机碳（SOC）含量,提升幅度高于对应处理土壤SOC提升幅度. 长期施肥有提高大团聚中cPOC、fPOC和iPOC含量,降低s+c_f和s+c_m含量趋势,且长期有机无机配施显著提高了大团聚中cPOC、fPOC和iPOC储量占比,显著降低了s+c_f储量占比,而长期单施化肥仅显著提升了大团聚中cPOC储量占比. 相关分析表明,小麦籽粒产量与有机碳组分（cPOC和iPOC）含量、土壤总有机碳含量、 >0.25 mm大团聚体有机碳含量以及土壤有机碳投入量存在极显著正相关性,相关系数为0.645~0.883. 综合来看,黄土旱塬麦区长期施肥尤其是有机无机配施,通过增加土壤碳投入量促进了游离态粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_f）向其它形态有机碳的转化,进而整体提升大团聚体有机碳含量,为作物增产创造了良好土壤环境.     

1951-2010年珠江流域洪水极值序列平稳性特征研究

水文序列的平稳性假设是传统水文统计学方法在水文序列分析研究中的基本假设,随着气候变化与人类活动对地表水文过程的影响,这种假设往往存在问题,使水文分析得出误导性结论。以珠江流域28个测站1951—2010年年最大洪峰流量序列为例,用Pettitt方法结合Loess参考函数检验序列中均值和方差变异,用Mann-Kendall(MK)和Spearman法检测时间趋势性,用广义可加模型(GAMLSS)和长期持续效应等具体分析序列的平稳性。研究结果表明:1均值/方差变异主要集中在西江和东江流域,变异时间分别集中在1990年左右和1968—1987年间;2变异点的存在与否对序列趋势检验结果有重要影响,在考虑变异点前提下,珠江流域年最大洪峰流量序列基本无显著趋势性;3在GAMLSS模型中,对于不具有和具有突变点序列,Gamma分布均为选择次数最多的最优极值分布,不具有突变点序列分布参数θ1或θ2非平稳模型与平稳模型差距较小,具有突变点序列则相反;4统计上检测出具有突变点或者显著时间趋势性的测站,同样检测出高Hurst系数,反之亦然。Hurst系数估计因样本容量较小具有较大不确定性。东江流域受流域内水利工程的剧烈影响,尽管检测出高Hurst系数,但仍认定为非平稳序列;西江干流主要受支流汇流和气候变化影响,高Hurst系数表明其水文过程可能是长期稳定过程中局部波动的结果。     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.