Generation of Monthly Precipitation Under Climate Change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively.     

旱地长期定位施肥对土壤剖面硝态氮分布与累积的影响

在 １５ ａ长期定位试验基础上研究了黄土高原旱地长期施用不同用量和配比的氮、磷肥对土壤剖面中硝态氮分布和累积的影响。结果表明：长期大量施用氮肥,在土壤剖面 １００～１８０ ｃｍ之间形成硝态氮累积层,峰值出现在 １４０ ｃｍ处,最大值为 ６７．９２ｍｇ／ｋｇ（单施 Ｎ １８０ ｋｇ／ｈｍ~２）; 配合施用磷肥可以降低土壤剖面硝态氮质量分数,根据试验,提出了旱地合理施肥的氮磷肥用量。     

耕作改制对土壤肥力的影响

在长期定位监测的基础上,研究了耕作改制对土壤肥力的影响,结果表明,耕作改制后,肥料投入明显增加,养分平衡朝着有利于提高肥力的方向发展;因土、因作物进行配方施肥,并实行秸秆还田,则改制后土壤肥力能得到提高;合理耕作轮作,有利于解决地力矛盾和季节矛盾,实现高产、稳产、低成本。     

Management of basiphilous dune slack communities in relation to carbonate accumulation and hydrological conditions

In dune slacks in The Netherlands, a decline of rare mesotrophic basiphilous plant species and their plant communities has been observed in combination with an increase of more productive systems with common, taller acidophilous plant species. This has been attributed to both natural and anthropogenic changes. In a humid climate with a precipitation surplus, as in The Netherlands, the calcium carbonate content of a calcareous soil increases with depth. However, soils in coastal dune slacks, may have a higher carbonate content in the topsoil horizon than in the underlying layers. Carbonates which buffer the pH can prolong the presence of mesotrophic basiphilous plant communities which are of high conservation value. To explain the occurrence of calcareous surface horizons in dune slacks, hydrological and micromorphological analyses were carried out in three dune slacks. Two slacks are situated on the Wadden Sea islands in the northern part of The Netherlands; one on Schiermonnikoog and one on Texel. The third slack is situated in the dunes on the island of Goeree in the southwestern part of The Netherlands. In all three slacks, carbonate occurs as mollusc and gastropod fragments (silt- or sand-sized) and as micritic nodules in the topsoil layer, due to aeolian deposition and sedimentation by water.In situ carbonate accumulation (calcitans and calcareous crusts) due to CO₂ release in inundated and/or capillary rise of calcareous groundwater near, or at the soil surface. Accumulation of carbonate also occurs as a result of biological activity by algae in the topsoil of the Goeree site. In general, hydrological processes maintaining high levels of calcareous groundwater are a prerequisite for the maintenance of high carbonate levels in topsoils. Such levels are necessary for the conservation and management of basiphilous pioneer vegetation.     

饮用水除氟技术研究的新进展

综述了近年来国内外饮用水除氟技术的研究新进展,介绍了沉淀、吸附和膜分离三种处理工艺的热点研究——电凝法、载镧改性吸附法和唐南透析法的基本原理和发展动态,并分析了各自的优缺点。认为开发高效、低成本、易操作和安全的饮用水新型除氟技术是目前的研究重点和方向。     

长江上游重庆段近20 a降水时空变化特征

全球气候变暖背景下,中国的降水分布日趋复杂,气象灾害造成的损失巨大。为满足防灾减灾与水资源管理的数据支撑需求,基于长江上游重庆段近20 a降水数据,利用线性回归、M-K非参数检验等方法,探究降水的时间变化趋势与空间分异特征。结果表明：近20 a重庆市年降水量在875.6—1348.2 mm。时间上,春、秋两季呈明显增多的趋势,其中3月最显著。降水在14 a时间尺度的周期过程线中波动最强,是第一主周期。空间分布上,呈西低东高的特点,在渝西和长江河谷地区降水相对偏少,主要受重庆地形的影响;渝西和渝东北地区秋季降水显著增多。研究结果可为长江流域旱涝灾害防治、水资源开发利用及经济社会可持续发展提供数据支撑,同时可为植被修复与生态廊道保障提供参考。     

淮南市降水化学组成特征与来源分析

2013—2014年,逐次采集淮南城市大气降水样品,对其离子化学组分进行分析测试,并利用酸度分析、中和因子和富集系数等方法对其酸碱物质平衡和离子来源进行了分析。化学组分分析结果表明,淮南城市降水pH为6.23~7.03,雨量加权平均值为6.68,整体上降水没有呈现酸化,大部分酸性物质能被碱性物质中和。主要阴离子为SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-,雨量加权平均值分别为147.02、62.16μeq/L,两者分别占阴离子总浓度的60.3%、25.3%;主要阳离子为Ca~(2+)、NH_4~+,雨量加权平均值分别为126.42、96.43μeq/L,分别占阳离子总浓度的44.9%、34.3%。利用富集系数法计算结果表明,SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-主要来源于人为活动排放,Cl~-主要为海洋输入,而Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、K~+则主要来自陆源输入和人为活动。     

pH和元素摩尔比对污泥酸化液沉淀法脱氮除磷的影响

针对剩余污泥水解酸化产生大量多糖、蛋白质和VFAs碳源的同时会有较高浓度的NH+4-N和PO3-4-P溶出的问题,考察了pH值和元素摩尔比对以沉淀法同时去除NH+4-N和PO3-4-P的影响.结果表明,最佳pH为9.0,当pH升高到10.0时NH+4-N去除率略有下降,在特定摩尔比范围内摩尔比对沉淀形成的影响大于pH值...     

广西夏季异常降雨量的前馈网络预报模型

以1957～2001年广西37个基准站的夏季(6～8月)平均降水量为基础,将夏季降水量距平百分率大于等于20%、小于等于-23%作为异常多雨和少雨年,建立广西夏季降水量"0、1"化的异常序列,利用前馈网络的非线性映射技术,构造广西夏季降水异常预报模型.通过对该模型的预报检验分析发现,该预报模型不仅能准确地报出历史样本的异常多雨和异常少雨年,并且对2002～2004年的独立样本预报也全部正确.这为异常降水的短期气候预测业务工作提供了新的思路和方法.     

地形因子对海南岛台风降水分布影响的估算

台风登陆过程中,地形对台风降水有明显的作用,及时了解台风过程中降水的空间分布信息对灾害预测预警有着重要的意义。基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法,利用1953-2005年间登陆海南岛的台风(不包括其他热带气旋)的降水资料,建立了台风过程中年平均降水量与地形因子(地形高程、坡度、坡向)的关系模型,估算了海南岛台风过程中降水量的分布,分析了地形对其的影响,为后期台风灾害过程中降水的地形影响分析提供参考。