基于DFA的无定河径流长期变化趋势及持续性研究

河川径流量的变化对水资源的开发利用和国民经济的发展具有很大的影响。采用K0lmogorov—Smimov检验方法对无定河流域两个主要水文站赵石窑站和白家川站逐月径流量序列进行正态性检验,在此基础上运用DFA分析方法,估算两站时间序列的研示度指数,预测该流域径流量的未来变化趋势及其持续性,并采用随机重排法对估算结果进行了稳定性检验。分析结果显示：赵石窑和自家川两站径流时间序列的a标度指数分别为0．52和0．56,均大于0．5,径流时间序列表现为较强的长程依赖性,表明无定河流域在过去近50a内径流量的总体上呈下降趋势,在未来一段时间内,还将持续一段时间。对原时间序列随机重排后,两站月径流序列的6α标度指数都变小,分别为0．48和0．49,接近于0．5,进一步证明原序列确实存在着标度不变性。研究结果对流域的水资源规划、管理与合理利用有帮助。     

尾矿库运行期DADT循环管控技术

为提高尾矿库这一矿山重大危险源安全监管系统化水平,实现数字化安全监管,提出了全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术理论。这项技术首先需要整合管控对象的三维数字化测控成果与调研资料,建立全寿命周期“健康档案”,其次运用DADT循环管控方法,同时耦合相关专业技术,“诊断、分析、设计、治理”管控对象的安全特征要素,发现并解决安全隐患。结合尾矿库自身特点与测控成果,阐述了尾矿库全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运行流程。以白马尾矿库为例,在三维点云数据基础上建立实体模型,运用全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术,耦合调洪演算过程,结果表明,尾矿库在后期堆排过程中,库区会出现“封闭水域”,提前发现并科学解决了尾矿库排洪隐患。全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运用,克服了以往安全监管对管控对象安全状况系统性掌控的不足,有利于精确处理安全隐患,为数字化安全监管的实现提供了一种全新思路。     

基于Landsim的填埋场长期渗漏的污染风险评价

介绍了Landsim模型的基本理论及其填埋场防渗系统、导排系统长期性能变化的表征方式,在此基础上提出了填埋场长期渗漏风险的表征方式..通过Landsim和HELP模型的耦合,弥补了Landsim模型中堆体入渗计算过于简单的缺陷.运用耦合的Landsim-HELP模型评价了西南地区某危险废物填埋场的长期渗漏的地下水污染风险.结果表明,该耦合模型可以准确的评价填埋场性能变化条件下的渗漏量及其对应概率;该填埋场在短期内(1~3a)地下水被污染的概率风险较小(￡0.33),而在长期内(34a)被污染的风险较大(30.68).建议在制定填埋场的设计和运行标准时需考虑防渗膜、导排管等重要单元长期性能的变化,从而减小其长期渗漏造成的地下水污染风险.     

Monitoring of Aquatic Macrophytes for Detection of Long-term Change in River Systems

This paper presents details of the methodology developed by the United Kingdom's Environmental Change Network for the long-term monitoring of macrophytes in rivers and streams. The methodology is based on techniques first proposed by the Standing Committee of Analysts (1987) and later adapted by the National Rivers Authority (NRA) and Environment Agency, but differs in splitting the surveyed 100 m stretch of waterinto sections to provide an objective measure of the frequencyof occurrence of individual species in place of the moresubjective estimation of cover. A pilot study of the ECN methodology took place at five sitesin 1997. The results of this study, including a few practicaldifficulties in the application of the methodology, are presented and discussed. For all but one of the sites strongassociations were found between the number of species observedand the physical characteristics of the watercourse. The most important characteristics were degree of shading, substrate type, depth and clarity. The frequency of occurrence of individual species within sections of the watercourse was foundto be strongly related to the log of the overall estimates of cover. Because the use of sections, rather than a single overall coverestimate, enables variation in the pattern of vegetation over surveyed stretches to be detected and related to watercourse characteristics, the precision with which change can be detected is increased, and the possibility of determining the causes of change is thereby enhanced. Moreover the use of sections allows within-site variation to be calculated and hence the accuracy of estimated changes to be quantified.In general implementation of the ECN methodology was not found to be particularly onerous or difficult. As a result of the pilot study some changes in the ECN methodology have been made, primarily to reduce the workload so that sites can be surveyed comfortably in a single day.     

试论森工企业安全生产长效机制的建立

根据实际工作体会,通过安全生产目标管理、安全生产责任制和加强安全生产监控、宣传教育及安全技术培训的力度三个方面,对建立森工企业安全生产长效机制提出了建议对策。     

夯实基础不断建立安全生产长效机制

分析了福人木业有限公司安全管理的现状,从安全管理、安全生产责任制、安全宣传教育和隐患整改四个方面阐述了如何建立安全生产长效机制.     

气相爆轰波通过声学吸收壁时强度衰减过程的实验研究

该文旨在研究稳定的气体爆轰波通过声学吸收壁强度衰减的过程。研究表明，当实验气体的初始压力小于某一临界值Pε时，爆轰波发生显著的衰减现象，胞格逐渐消失，爆速下降到稳定爆速的约0．5倍。该文利用不同初压下的烟迹图详细地分析了横波衰减并因此导致稳定爆轰波强度衰减的机理，给出了爆轰波与声学吸收壁作用的一个简化的理论模型，并且得到了衰减长度随初压变化的实验曲线。     

我国典型季风海洋型冰川积累区冰雪剖面的环境记录

运用多种方法,对白水1号冰川积累区冰雪剖面的主要阴、阳离子和δ18O的环境意义分析表明,受强烈淋溶作用影响,离子和δ18O的季节变化不明显,剖面离子浓度显著低于雪坑,离子流失量较大。NH4+年际变化最为显著,与丽江降水表现出相同的变化趋势,Mg2+和Ca2+浓度与冰雪剖面净积累量呈反向变化。分析表明,阴离子主要是湿沉降产物,阳离子主要是干沉降产物。该剖面所反映的13年δ18O比率变化介于-11.8‰～-14.6‰。冰雪剖面中δ18O与西南季风指数、冰雪剖面积累量、丽江降水和丽江气温呈反向变化,表现出显著的"降水量效应"。     

农村生活污水治理长效管理机制研究

近年来,随着杭州农村生活污水治理工程的全面实施,设施的日常管理维护,保证正常稳定运行、长期发挥应有作用日益成为关注重点.本文在对杭州地区农村生活污水治理现状调研基础上,分析了现有治理工程在规划设计、工程质量、设施运行、日常管理及资金等方面存在的问题,提出了从组织体系、工程项目体系、政策保障体系、资金筹措体系、考核评价体系等方面构建农村生活污水治理长效管理机制.     

Effects of different management strategies on long-term trends of Australian threatened and near-threatened mammals

Monitoring is critical to assess management effectiveness, but broadscale systematic assessments of monitoring to evaluate and improve recovery efforts are lacking. We compiled 1808 time series from 71 threatened and near-threatened terrestrial and volant mammal species and subspecies in Australia (48% of all threatened mammal taxa) to compare relative trends of populations subject to different management strategies. We adapted the Living Planet Index to develop the Threatened Species Index for Australian Mammals and track aggregate trends for all sampled threatened mammal populations and for small (<35 g), medium (35–5500 g), and large mammals (>5500 g) from 2000 to 2017. Unmanaged populations (42 taxa) declined by 63% on average; unmanaged small mammals exhibited the greatest declines (96%). Populations of 17 taxa in havens (islands and fenced areas that excluded or eliminated introduced red foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and domestic cats [Felis catus]) increased by 680%. Outside havens, populations undergoing sustained predator baiting initially declined by 75% but subsequently increased to 47% of their abundance in 2000. At sites where predators were not excluded or baited but other actions (e.g., fire management, introduced herbivore control) occurred, populations of small and medium mammals declined faster, but large mammals declined more slowly, than unmanaged populations. Only 13% of taxa had data for both unmanaged and managed populations; index comparisons for this subset showed that taxa with populations increasing inside havens declined outside havens but taxa with populations subject to predator baiting outside havens declined more slowly than populations with no management and then increased, whereas unmanaged populations continued to decline. More comprehensive and improved monitoring (particularly encompassing poorly represented management actions and taxonomic groups like bats and small mammals) is required to understand whether and where management has worked. Improved implementation of management for threats other than predation is critical to recover Australia's threatened mammals.