牙哈凝析气田大气环境影响回顾评价

为更好地了解牙哈凝析气田开发建设对大气环境质量的影响,根据牙哈凝析气田6年的大气环境监测资料,采用spearman秩相关系数法对牙哈凝析气田开发10年来的环境空气质量进行回顾评价及变化趋势分析。结果表明:牙哈凝析气田大气中主要污染物SO2、NMHC(非甲烷总烃)均总体呈下降趋势,NO2呈上升趋势,而在2008年急剧下降,整体大气环境质量呈现好转趋势。牙哈凝析气田开发区块环境空气质量有了明显的改善,各项大气环境治理措施取得了显著的环境效益。     

Mercury levels and trends (1993-2009) in bream (Abramis brama L.) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) from German surface waters

Mercury concentrations have been analysed in bream (Abramis brama L.) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) collected at 17 freshwater sites in Germany from 1993-2009 and 1994-2009, respectively, within the German Environmental Specimen programme. Mercury concentrations in bream ranged from 21 to 881 ng g⁻¹ wet weight with lowest concentrations found at the reference site Lake Belau and highest in fish from the river Elbe and its tributaries. Statistical analysis revealed site-specific differences and significant decreasing temporal trends in mercury concentrations at most of the sampling sites. The decrease in mercury levels in bream was most pronounced in fish from the river Elbe and its tributary Mulde, while in fish from the river Saale mercury levels increased. Temporal trends seem to level off in recent years. Mercury concentrations in zebra mussels were much lower than those in bream according to their lower trophic position and varied by one order of magnitude from 4.1 to 42 ng g⁻¹ wet weight (33-336 ng g⁻¹ dry weight). For zebra mussels, trend analyses were performed for seven sampling sites at the rivers Saar and Elbe of which three showed significant downward trends. There was a significant correlation of the geometric mean concentrations in bream and zebra mussel over the entire study period at each sampling site (Pearson’s correlation coefficient = 0.892, p = 0.00002). A comparison of the concentrations in bream with the environmental quality standard (EQS) of 20 ng g⁻¹ wet weight set for mercury in biota by the EU showed that not a single result was in compliance with this limit value, not even those from the reference site. Current mercury levels in bream from German rivers exceed the EQS by a factor 4.5-20. Thus, piscivorous top predators are still at risk of secondary poisoning by mercury exposure via the food chain. It was suggested focusing monitoring of mercury in forage fish (trophic level 3 or 4) for compliance checking with the EQS for biota and considering the age dependency of mercury concentrations in fish in the monitoring strategy.     

上海市近年来大气环境质量变化趋势分析

为了解上海市大气环境的状况,为进一步制定改善上海市大气环境质量的具体措施提出相关的参考建议,本文在查阅大量文献资料基础上,总结了上海市自2000年至2007年共8年大气环境质量现状分析,统计分析了主要污染物的变化特征,通过对相关环保措施、政府政策等方面资料的引用和分析,讨论了上海市大气环境质量变化的影响因素。分析结果表明:上海市连续三轮的"环保三年行动计划"的实施使上海市大气环境质量逐渐好转,大气污染情况逐步减轻,但由于产业结构调整带来的大气环境压力以及社会快速发展的压力,使得上海市治理大气环境污染的任务仍然艰巨。酸雨已经成为上海市大气环境的突出重要问题。     

Recent levels of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in sediments of the sewer system in Hanoi, Vietnam

The occurrence, temporal trend, sources and toxicity of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were investigated in sediment samples from the sewer system of Hanoi City, including the rivers Nhue, To Lich, Lu, Set, Kim Nguu and the Yen So Lake. In general, the concentrations of the pollutants followed the order DDTs > PCBs > HCHs (β-HCH) > HCB. However, the pollution pattern was different for the DDTs and PCBs when the sampling locations were individually evaluated. The concentrations of the DDTs, PCBs, HCHs, and HCB ranged from 4.4 to 1100, 1.3 to 384, <0.2 to 36 and <0.2 to 22 ng/g d.w., respectively. These levels are higher than at any other location in Vietnam. Compared to measurements from 1997, the DDTs, PCBs, β-HCH and HCB levels show an increasing trend with DDT/DDE ratios, indicating very recent inputs into the environment although these persistent compounds are banned in Vietnam since 1995.     

竹林关大柴沟大型泥石流的形成机理与发展趋势

通过对陕西省丹凤县竹林关镇大柴沟泥石流进行现场勘查分析,总结了泥石流的孕灾背景,揭示了泥石流的典型特征和基本物理力学参数,在此基础上,分别从泥石流的物质来源、形成环境、诱发条件等三大条件分析了泥石流的形成机理,归纳了大柴沟泥石流具有典型的滑坡激发性、周期暴发性、强烈致灾性等特点,对泥石流的危险性进行了现状分析和预测评价。结果表明:软硬相间的岩层和强烈的构造运动是造成岩体变形破碎的主要原因,为泥石流提供了丰富的物源,垂直高差较大、沟道狭窄为泥石流提供了良好的孕灾环境,百年一遇的暴雨是大柴沟泥石流形成的诱发条件,同时受暴雨影响,沟内产生多处浅表层滑坡堵塞沟道,为泥石流聚集了能量,以至形成规模更大、破坏性更强的泥石流。研究过程采用了实测计算与经验公式估算相结合的多种方法进行对比研究,也充分验证了经验公式的适用性。     

中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析

改革开放以来中国能源效率不断地提高,但是在某些年份存在波动现象.采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S方法,科学定量地描述了中国以及各个地区能源效率的演变趋势.首先采用分形理论对1978-2008年的中国能源效率时间序列数据进行研究,结果显示,中国能源效率发展演变存在Hurst现象,具有明显的分形特征.并依照“五年计划”来划分时间序列样本为研究区间,结合“五年计划”详尽地解释说明了中国能源效率变动的原因.然后将数据扩大为样本期为1995-2008年29地区的面板数据,采用面板变系数模型进一步对各个地区的能源效率进行分析,发现除海南外其他地区的能源效率演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,各个地区能源效率将继续保持增长.西部6个地区以及东北三省的能源效率演变趋势高于全国水平,说明“西部大开发”战略和“振兴东北”战略都已经显效.     

太阳活动与四川盆地气候资源波动

本文应用四川省气象局提供的气候资料,借助于电子计算机,统计分析了太阳黑子位相与四川盆地热量资源、降水资源波动的关系;采用文献[2]的公式,计算了太阳黑子相对数年均值与热量、降水资源的同期及延后相关系数,并进行了周期分析,进而分析其演变趋势及其对农业生产的影响和应采取的对策。     

FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.     

A TAU-LIKE TEST FOR TREND IN THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE CENSORING POINTS1

ABSTRACT: A common problem arises in testing for trends in water quality when observations are reported as “less than detection limit.” If a single detection limit is used for the entire study, existing non-parametric statistical methods, modified for ties, are applicable. If, however, the detection limit varies during the course of the study, resulting in multiple detection limits, then the commonly used trend detection methods are not appropriate. A statistic similar to Kendall's tau, but based on expected ranks, is proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that the normal approximation to the distribution of this statistic is quite good, even for small samples and a large proportion of censored observations. The statistic is also shown to have greater power than the ad-hoc method of treating all observations less than the target censored observation as tied.     

NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR TREND DETECTION IN WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A review of nonparametric tests for trend leads to the conclusion that Mann-Whitney, Spearman, and Kendall tests are the best choice for trend detection in water quality time series. Recently these tests have been adapted to account for dependence and seasonality in such series (Lettenmaier, 1976; Hirsch, et al., 1972; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). For monotonic trends, a procedure allowing to select the pertinent tests considering the characteristics of time series is proposed and the practical limitations of the tests are also brought out. This procedure has been applied to identify the appropriate trend detection test for the time series of nine water quality parameters at Lake Laflamme (Québec). When a time series can be tested with the Mann-Whitney, Kendall, Spearman, or Lettenmaier (1976) test, the number of observations required to detect trends of a given magnitude, for selected significance and power levels can be calculated with the power function of the t test. When the test proposed by Hirsch, et al. (1984), Hirsch and Slack (1984), or Farrell (1980) need to be used, the number of observations can only be estimated approximately from the results of empirical power studies.