Adaptive Management and Watersheds: A Social Science Perspective1

Abstract:  Adaptive management is often proposed as the most effective way to manage complex watersheds. However, our experience suggests that social and institutional factors constrain the search for, and integration of, the genuine learning that defines adaptive management. Drawing on our work as social scientists, and on a guided panel discussion at a recent AWRA conference, we suggest that watershed‐scale adaptive management must be recognized as a radical departure from established ways of managing natural resources if it is to achieve its promise. Successful implementation will require new ways of thinking about management, new organizational structures and new implementation processes and tools. Adaptive management encourages scrutiny of prevailing social and organizational norms and this is unlikely to occur without a change in the culture of natural resource management and research. Planners and managers require educational, administrative, and political support as they seek to understand and implement adaptive management. Learning and reflection must be valued and rewarded, and fora established where learning through adaptive management can be shared and explored. The creation of new institutions, including educational curricula, organizational policies and practices, and professional norms and beliefs, will require support from within bureaucracies and from politicians. For adaptive management to be effective researchers and managers alike must work together at the watershed‐scale to bridge the gaps between theory and practice, and between social and technical understandings of watersheds and the people who occupy and use them.     

Incremental evolution and devolution of Florida's Coastal High Hazard Area policy

Demarcation of Coastal High Hazard Areas (CHHAs) in Florida dates back to the passage of the landmark Growth Management Act (GMA) of 1985. There have been two subsequent legislative changes in 1994 and 2006. This paper draws on theories of policy implementation, policy framing and policy learning to shed light on this ‘natural experiment’ and to offer clues about factors that impact how and why policies evolve and devolve even after multiple revisions. Although the case study is focused on Florida, the lessons are transferable to land use and environmental policy makers seeking a balance between economic development, property rights and environmental risk.     

Beyond the regime: can Integrated Sustainability Assessment address the barriers to effective sustainable passenger mobility policy?

Sustainability policy making is hampered by a tendency towards sector-based, short-term and often techno-fix perspectives. This paper describes a novel policy development and assessment framework – Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) – that may help address problems of unsustainability in a more integrated and strategic manner. ISA involves two primary methods: transition analysis and stakeholder engagement. The ISA case study on sustainable passenger mobility suggests ISA is well equipped to produce a holistic analysis of mobility systems, illustrate radical alternatives to the status quo and foster social learning. Further research should explore its potential to induce long-term behavioural or institutional change.     

浅谈网络教学的现状以及混合式教学方式的发展

在10多年的网络教学实践中碰到了种种问题：高投资低回报,教师主导地位的丧失,学习活动在低水平层次的重复,学习效果与预设的理想目标相距甚远等等。这些问题促使研究者对网络教学的热潮重新进行理性反思,混合教学方式便应运而生,即传统的教师课堂讲授教学与学生在线学习相结合的混合教学方式。通过这种方式,能把传统学习方式的优势和网络教学的优势结合起来。另外,随着混合式教学方式的发展,对教师技能也提出了新的要求。     

模糊支持向量机在滑坡危险性评价中的应用

为了将模糊支持向量机应用于滑坡灾害危险性评价工作,并进行验证,进行了研究区滑坡现状的调查,评价指标的选取,隶属函数的确定和基于FSVM的滑坡灾害危险性评价.选取了高程指标、坡度指标、岩土体指标、地表湿度指标及植被覆盖指标等5个指标作为滑坡灾害危险性评价指标,最后以莆田市为例,结合Rs和GIS技术,进行了滑坡危险性评价的研究.评价结果与实地验证和莆田市国土局提供的地质灾害现状图基本吻合.     

新疆二氧化硫排放环境学习曲线及减排潜力研究

基于2005—2010年SO2排放量和经济发展数据,对该时段的SO2排放环境负荷变化进行分析并以此数据构建了新疆三大地区万元产值SO2排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线;以所建立的环境学习曲线为依据,分析2005—2010年万元产值SO,的减排潜力,并对新疆“十二五”期间不同地区万元SO2的节能减排潜力进行了预测。结果表明：经济发展水平越高的地区,万元产值SO2排放环境负荷越小,减排潜力越小;经济发展水平越低的地区,万元产值SO2排放环境负荷越大,减排潜力也越大。研究结果将为“十二五”自治区SO2排放总量控制及减排指标提供科学依据。     

直喷式柴油机燃用脂肪酸甲酯的排放特性

脂肪酸甲酯是由生物脂肪经过酯化反应得到的脂肪酸单酯,具有良好的燃料品质和环境友好性,是生物柴油众多种类中的一种.以纯矿物柴油、脂肪酸甲酯、含30%脂肪酸甲酯与70%柴油的混合燃料和含50%脂肪酸甲酯与50%柴油的混合燃料为燃料,在四缸涡轮增压直喷式柴油机上进行的性能对比实验,表明柴油机燃用脂肪酸甲酯能够保持其动力性和燃料经济性,可以显著降低HC和碳烟排放,但会增加CO和NOx排放.脂肪酸甲酯可以作为柴油机的代用燃料进行推广.     

基于支持向量机(SVM)的回采工作面瓦斯涌出混沌预测方法研究

针对瓦斯涌出传统的线性预测方法存在的问题,根据瓦斯涌出时间序列固有的确定性和非线性,利用混沌动力系统的相空间延迟坐标重构理论,结合基于机器学习理论的支持向量机(SVM),建立基于SVM理论的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型。经Ⅱ1024回采工作面瓦斯涌出时间序列仿真计算,仿真结果显示该预测模型具有比传统的回归方法更好的泛化能力,预测方法具有很高的预测精度。同时,该模型具有以往传统机器学习的瓦斯涌出预测模型建立简便、训练速度快等优点。由于充分考虑瓦斯涌出时间序列的混沌性,并利用SVM预测的优良特性,使得预测更科学。     

基于神经网络的直流电机模型辨识及应用

为了提高控制系统的控制性能,实现自适应控制,提出了一种基于神经网络模型的参数辨识方法.首先,为一台未知参数的直流电机设计了基于DSP(数字信号处理器)的控制器,再通过采集卡获取大量的实时观测数据,然后对数据进行预处理,将预处理后的数据按照神经网络辨识的原理完成模型辨识.通过比较直流电机实际阶跃响应与模型阶跃响应,对辨识模型进行检验,最后设计了该系统的PI校正装置.结果表明该方法可操作性强、辨识精度高、应用性强.     

基于自组织映射与随机森林耦合模型的流域水质空间差异性评估

流域水环境质量空间分布特征分析是推进流域精细化管理的基础.本研究基于流域特征指标与水质的关联性,以子流域为分析单元,利用自组织映射人工神经网络模型（SOM）对苕溪流域水质数据聚类分析为3类后与随机森林模型（RF）进行耦合,对全流域水质进行了空间差异性评估.研究结果显示,上游山地区域水质较好,而平原河网人口集聚区的COD_Mn、NH₃-N及TP浓度较高,山地与平原过渡地带水质则主要受到COD_Mn和TN的影响.采用自然环境、社会经济及土地利用/覆盖指标作为流域特征进行水质分级模式识别,SOM与RF模型耦合模型的准确率稳定在80%左右;在对强相关性特征进行筛选识别后,将蒸发蒸腾量、坡度、人口密度、大于10℃积温、旱地占比、城镇用地占比及景观多样性指数为作为输入特征,准确率可达83%,可以有效地开展全流域水质分级评估.