支持向量机对多环芳烃毒性的定量构效预测

为了实现多环芳烃(PAHs)毒性的有效预测,提出应用定量构效技术对多环芳烃的空气-正辛醇分配系数(KOA)和致癌性进行预测。应用分子描述符和试验值确立构效关系,采用支持向量机算法(SVM)和人工神经网络算法(ANN)分别建立了PAHs的KOA回归预测模型和致癌性分类预测模型。利用网格划分(GS)、遗传算法(GA)、粒子群算法(PSO)对SVM进行参数寻优。应用均方误差(MSE)、拟合决定系数R2和分类准确率(Accuracy)分别对模型进行了验证与评价。结果表明,最佳回归预测模型GS-SVR的MSE为0.059 7,R2为0.913 0;最佳分类预测模型GA-SVC的Accuracy为95%。研究表明:应用SVM所建两种模型的稳定性和预测能力都优于应用ANN建立的模型;参数优化后模型的稳定性和预测能力得到了提高。     

Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self‐reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross‐jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate‐change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para Atender el Cambio Climático     

开源与教育

开源教育对于学校和学生均具有明显的获益。我国开源教育发展了数年时间，政府和众多开源企业也一直在摸索一条适合我国开源教育的道路，但整体看来，发展较慢。本文分析了开源在我国的发展情况，结合高等教育，通过与国外发展的对比，指出了开源在我国、在教育领域发展缓慢的主要因素，并就此提出了建议措施。     

广州市多污染物联合暴露的健康效应评估

本研究应用贝叶斯核机器回归(BKMR)分析了广州市2015~2018年大气主要污染物(SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO和O₃)与非意外死亡之间的联合健康效应。结果表明,6种污染物对健康结局均存在较大影响。随着其它污染物固定百分位数浓度的增加,SO₂、O₃或NO₂的浓度从第25百分位数变化到第75百分位数导致的效应值的绝对值逐渐升高;相反,PM_2.5、CO或PM₁₀的浓度从第25百分位数变化到第75百分位数导致的效应值的绝对值逐渐减少。在累积滞后0~1d时,多种空气污染物的混合暴露对非意外死亡人数的影响效应值为正,与最低浓度相较,当所有污染物的浓度增至第90百分位数时,人数非意外死亡人数将增加21.98%(95%CI:3.04%,44.41%)。通过应用BKMR模型,本研究证实多种污染物的暴露可对广州市人群公共健康造成联合的综合影响。在污染物的防控治理上,不仅需要针对当地主要空气污染物,还需加强对多污染物暴露的防控。     

浸河水环境对某小口径步枪的动力学影响分析

目的 研究浸河水环境对某小口径步枪自动机运动特性的影响规律。方法 采用摩擦系数仪测得在浸河水后自动机枪机框与枪机、导轨之间的摩擦系数,获得浸河水浓度对2个摩擦系数的影响规律。根据某小口径步枪的三维模型,在ADAMS平台中,建立其虚拟样机模型,并进行模型验证。在上述基础上,将不同浸河水后运动副间的摩擦系数加载到模型中,经仿真分析获得不同浸河水浓度对自动机运动特性的影响规律。结果 某小口径步枪的枪机、导轨与枪机框之间的摩擦系数随着浸河水浓度的增加而有所增大,而自动机的后坐到位速度、复进开始速度、复进到位速度以及射频都会随着浸河水浓度的增加而下降,其中,后坐到位速度在不同浸河水浓度环境下的降低幅度最小,其降低幅度小于10%,复进到位速度的降低幅度最大,为16.9%,但自动机后坐最大速度与浸河水浓度无关。结论 浸河水环境会增大运动副间的摩擦系数,增加自动机运动过程中的能量损耗,且当浸河水的质量浓度增大到20 kg/m³时,出现后坐不到位故障,运动副之间的摩擦系数对自动机的复进到位无影响。     

机械脱污及其应用研究

给出了颗粒在离心力作用下的数学模型，并进行了计算机模拟在其在设计装置时的应用，还给出了实际脱污的测试结果。     

Setting Realistic Recovery Targets for Two Interacting Endangered Species,Sea Otter and Northern Abalone

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species‐centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator–prey interactions. Using simulation‐based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional‐response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short‐term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives. Definición de Metas de Recuperación Realistas para Dos Especies en Peligro Interactuantes, Enhydra lutris y Haliotis kamtschatkana     

慢性氟暴露致小鼠海马损伤及L-型钙拮抗剂的干预作用

探讨了慢性氟暴露致小鼠海马损伤及L-型钙通道拮抗剂的干预作用.将140只初断乳ICR雄性小鼠随机分为7组：对照组（C组）、高氟组（HF组,饮用30 mg·L^-1 NaF溶液）、低氟组（LF组,饮用5 mg·L^-1 NaF溶液）、高/低氟+L-型钙通道激动剂组（FPL64176）（HF/LF+FPL）、高/低氟+L-型钙通道拮抗剂组（Nifedipine）（HF/LF+NIF）.染氟6个月,染氟结束前1周,HF/LF+FPL和HF/LF+NIF组分别每天腹腔注射激动剂或拮抗剂（5 mg·kg^-1·d^-1）.用TUNEL法检测小鼠海马CA₁区细胞凋亡水平,用Western Blot法检测细胞膜L-型钙通道Cav1.2、Ca²⁺信号通路分子和下游凋亡调节相关分子蛋白表达水平等.结果表明,与对照组比,HF/LF组小鼠海马组织抗氧化能力显著降低（p<0.05或p<0.01）,细胞凋亡水平极显著上升（p<0.01）,Cav1.2与Bcl-2蛋白表达水平显著下降（p<0.05或p<0.01）,Ca²⁺信号转导通路CaM、CaMKII和促凋亡Bax、Bax/Bcl-2蛋白表达水平显著上升（p<0.05或p<0.01）.注射FPL64176的小鼠海马细胞和上述分子指标的损伤加剧,而注射NIF对海马细胞和上述分子蛋白表达有一定的逆转作用.提示L-型钙离子通道介导了氟暴露致小鼠海马损伤,氟暴露致海马细胞膜L-型钙离子通道Cav1.2蛋白、细胞内Ca²⁺信号转导通路分子和下游凋亡调节相关蛋白表达异常是其分子机制之一,而L-型钙通道拮抗剂NIF可能是一种新型有效的抗氟药物.     

Development aid: The moral obligation to innovation

The prominent, though not exclusive, role of basic needs strategies to attain ethically acceptable development goals raises the question of the ability of development agencies to find and employ basic needs strategies. The obligation to prevent severe human suffering leads to the obligation to employ basic needs strategies to attain basic needs goals. The history of failure by development agencies in finding and employing basic needs tools leads to a further obligation to cultivate bureaucratic environments which foster profound innovation. This requires not only new tools but also new bureaucratic behaviour. An understandable obstacle to simultaneously technological and bureaucratic innovation lies in the tension between responsible behaviour and behaviour promoting fundamental change. Since this tension is based on the unpredictability of creative change, a series of axioms and corollaries which reduce the unpredictability is given. They include: (1) an obligation to seek innovation; (2) a clear statement of basic needs goals and intent to use some basic needs tools; (3) increase in effective knowledge of the poor and their survival strategies; (4) bureaucratic learning flexibility; (5) participatory development and allied emphasis on sustainable resource technologies. The embodiment of these in the learning process approach is illustrated.