On the latent state estimation of nonlinear population dynamics using Bayesian and non-Bayesian state-space models

Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in bottled waters on the Swedish market

This study presents the concentrations of about 50 metals and ions in 33 different brands of bottled waters on the Swedish market. Ten of the brands showed calcium (Ca) concentrations ≤10 mg L⁻¹ and magnesium (Mg) levels <3 mg L⁻¹, implying very soft waters. Three of these waters had in addition low concentrations of sodium (Na; <7 mg L⁻¹), potassium (K; <3 mg L⁻¹) and bicarbonate (HCO₃ ≤31 mg L⁻¹). These brands were collected from barren districts. Nine of the brands were collected from limestone regions. They showed increased Ca-levels exceeding 50 mg L⁻¹ with a maximum of 289 mg L⁻¹. Corresponding Mg-levels were also raised in two brands exceeding 90 mg L⁻¹. Two soft and carbonated waters were supplemented with Na₂CO₃ and NaCl, resulting in high concentrations of Na (644 and 648 mg L⁻¹) and chloride (Cl; 204 and 219 mg L⁻¹). Such waters may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of NaCl in high water consumers. The storage of carbonated drinking water in aluminum (Al) cans increased the Al-concentration to about 70 μg L⁻¹. Conclusion As there was a large variation in the material as regards concentrations of macro-elements such as Ca, Mg, Na, K and Cl. Supplementation with salts, e.g., Na₂CO₃, K₂ CO₃ and NaCl, can lead to increased concentrations of Na, K and Cl, as well as decreased ratios of Ca/Na and larger ratios of Na/K. Water with high concentrations of e.g., Ca and Mg, may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of these elements in high water consumers. Al cans are less suited for storage of carbonated waters, as the lowered pH-values may dissolve Al. The levels of potentially toxic metals in the studied brands were generally low.     

白菜叶绿体DNA快速提取及分析

采用SDS-蛋白酶法提取了白菜的叶绿体DNA.琼脂糖电泳及紫外分光光度分析表明,所提取的叶绿体DNA质量高,除cpDNA主环外,在胞质雄性不育新种质及原不育系中还存在约1375bp和831bp的两条质粒分子.用所提取的叶绿体DNA作为模板进行RAPD扩增,获得了清晰的扩增图谱.该方法与传统的提取方法相比省时、高效、无污染.图2表1参14     

一种提取氧化葡萄糖酸杆菌山梨糖脱氢酶的简单方法

利用表面活性剂TritonX-100建立一种提取和测定氧化葡萄糖酸杆菌（Gluconobacter oxydans)L-山梨糖脱氢酶（L-sorbose dehydrogenaseSDH)活性的简便方法，最适提取条件为：TritonX-100浓度ψ（Triton)/%=0.3。提取温度θ=4℃，处理时间t/h=6-10h；用于提取的菌悬液D550nm范围0.090-0.252。该方法提取效率为细胞碎片法的97.83%。图2表2参7     

低磷胁迫下不同水稻品种根系吸收能力差异的生理与遗传本质

在低磷（1mg L-1)和适磷水平（10mg L^-1)下，分别以混合培养方式研究了粳稻京系17（Oryza sativa ssp.japonica)(JX17)和粘稻窄叶青8号（Oryza sativa ssp.indica)(ZYQ8)对磷营养的反应。结果表明，低磷胁迫下，JX17较ZYQ8吸收更多磷素，干物重也显著增加。相反，ZYQ8则受到更强的磷胁迫，吸磷量和干物重降低，主要是因为JX17具有较高的吸磷速度，单位根长吸磷量大，即根系高亲和力磷酸盐转运蛋白表达强，最大限度地吸收可能利用的磷素，从而改善植株营养状况，同时又有较多的磷被分配到根系，使根第，根表面积和根干重相应提高，进一步增加了其在低磷胁迫条件下的竞争磷营养的优势。图3表2参17     

GIS支持下的红壤丘陵区脆弱生态环境综合评价--以长沙市为例

遥感和地理信息系统技术的发展为研究区域生态环境变化提供了有效的手段。针对红壤丘陵区这一特定区域，在地理信息系统的支持下，建立了红壤丘陵区环境信息系统数据库；同时结合特尔斐法、层次分析法及环境质量综合指数法，对红壤丘陵区的典型区域——长沙市的生态环境质量进行综合评价。研究结果表明，由于人类活动的强烈影响，长沙市环境质量状况良好以上级别的区域面积仅有827．64km^2，占总面积的7．0％；而生态环境较差的区域其面积达到6187．14km^2，占总面积的52．4％，这说明长沙市总体生态环境质量有待进一步提高。     

湖泊沉积物对磷酸盐的负吸附研究

分别在高、低两种磷酸盐质量浓度下，研究了6个湖泊沉积物对磷酸盐的负吸附。结果表明，(1)污染严重的湖泊沉积物不仅在上覆水体水质好转时，可能向上覆水体释放磷，即使上覆水体水质没有好转，在一定条件也可能释放；而较为清洁的湖泊沉积物，在上覆水体水质下降时，可能从上覆水体中吸附磷。在水质好转情况下，也可能向上覆水体中释放磷。(2)湖泊沉积物吸附磷酸盐过程中存在负吸附，吸附研究中使用较高质量浓度磷溶液是负吸附现象被掩盖的原因；在吸附研究中不仅要重视负吸附，而且初始磷酸盐质量浓度不能太高。(3)沉积物对磷酸盐的吸附／解吸平衡质量浓度与其有机质、CEC、总氮、总磷以及各形态磷含量均有显著的正相关关系，相比而言。与总磷以及各形态磷含量的相关性最高。污染较为严重的沉积物对磷酸盐的吸附／解吸平衡质量浓度也较高。     

城市人居环境评价体系的研究及应用

在国内外人居环境理论研究及实践的基础上,提出了由系统层、子系统层和指标层构成的城市人居环境评价指标体系,其中系统层由社会经济环境、自然生态环境、公共设施建设、环境资源保护和环境管理能力五部分组成,子系统层由16个指标组成,指标层由43个具体指标组成。利用统计分析法(Delphi)确定各指标的权值。同时,针对本指标体系结构提出了单项评价和综合评价相结合的评价模式,并设置了城市人居环境质量指数和系统协调度两个综合性指标来全面评价城市人居环境质量。通过对重庆市渝北城区的综合评价,评价结果较客观地反映了该城区的实际。     

稻田土壤对铵的矿物固定对土壤保氮作用的贡献

为了定量评价土壤对铵的矿物固定作用在土壤对肥料氮的保持作用中的相对贡献,通过室内培养试验和分析测定,研究了湖南省几种主要母质发育的水稻土对添加铵的矿物固定作用及其对土壤保氮作用的贡献。结果表明:土壤对外源铵的矿物固定是土壤重要的保氮机制之一,但不同土壤对保氮作用的相对贡献大小不一,以河沙泥的固铵作用对土壤保氮作用的贡献最大,固铵量占总保氮量的51.5%,红黄泥最低,固铵量仅占总保氮量的17.1%,其余五种土壤的固铵作用对土壤保氮作用的贡献大小顺序依次是黄泥田(43.7%)、湖潮泥(35.5%)、紫泥田(35.4%)、灰泥田(25.0%)、麻沙泥(20.8%)。     

双波长标准加入法同时测定水中硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐

本文应用双波长标准加入法同时测定了硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐，在研究硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐紫外光谱的基础上，精确选择亚硝酸盐等吸收点波长２０２．５ｎｍ，２１６．５ｎｍ为测定波长。亚硝酸盐含量回归方程经推导得Ｃ＝－３．８４１＋１５６．６Ａ，相关系Ｒ＝１．０００。将该法用于合成样品及实际水样分析，所得结果较满意。