基于AHP-熵权法的输气站场区块风险因素权重确定方法研究

为合理地体现主、客观风险因素对输气站场安全状况的影响,综合运用AHP和熵权法在确定权重方面的优势,在充分尊重专家经验的基础上,最大限度地削弱了权重确定的主观性.针对输气站场设施种类繁多、数量巨大,且分布既相对独立,又相互联系的特点,以工艺流程单元为大致框架,并兼顾设施共性风险因素,将输气站场划分为了清管器收发区、计量区、压气区、阀组区、安全仪表系统区等10大风险区块,并重点关注各区块内关键设备在运行期间的风险因素,最终建立起了10大区块62小项的输气站场两级风险评价指标体系.权重确定过程利用yaahp层次分析法软件和Excel辅助计算,大大降低了数据处理的工作量,同时保证了计算结果的准确性.     

Factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol

Objective: This study examined the risk factors of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among drivers of specific vehicle categories (DSC). On the basis of this research, the variables related to DUI and involvement in traffic crashes were defined. The analysis was conducted for car drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, bus drivers, and truck drivers.

Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).

Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.

Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy.     

心理学视角下事故致因与行为探究综述

为了从人的心理角度解释事故发生的原因,研究消除和预防事故的根本措施,以行为心理学理论为指导去研究实践活动中涉及人的行为规律和特点,开展人的行为模式研究。在分析安全视角下人的主要心理因素及心理效应的基础上,分析了人的不安全行为与心理特征之间的关系,建立了心理因素下不安全行为形成模式,继而用心理学效应诠释了事故致因,提出了事故发生的内在心理机制。从人内在心理角度去理解和研究事故预防是安全科学研究的必然趋势,心理探究能为事故致因分析和人的不安全行为心理研究提供一种新的思路和方法。     

AQ标准《油漆与粉刷作业安全规范》编制要点

从行业安全现状以及行业安全标准化两方面介绍AQ标准《油漆与粉刷作业安全规范》编制背景;分析油漆与粉刷作业特点、危害来源及作业事故类型;对标准编制方法与思路、用词技巧、重点内容、章节划分等进行讨论;同时对高空吊板的使用以及缺氧危险作业与有限空间作业问题进行探析。针对该标准的讨论有助于标准的贯彻执行,对安全技术类标准的编制也具有参考价值。     

灾害视角下基于隐患因素的生态安全演变机理与系统动力学特征

通过"灾害学"视角认识和理解生态安全,针对隐患因素对安全状态的影响,探讨了生态安全演变的隐患触发传递与响应控制机理,并从系统动力学的视角论述生态安全是反馈的动力系统和非线性的动态系统特征。研究表明,生态安全因素分析必须包含隐患因素分析;安全评价要素范围必须扩展。生态安全系统由隐患触发传递系统和响应控制管理系统组成,且两系统之间以及子系统各要素之间相互影响、相互联系,是隐患因素不断触发、传递、响应和控制的复合高阶演变过程,具有非线性灾变性、自组织及被组织性和有序与无序的动态性。     

现实工况下挖掘机尾气排放特征分析

为量化挖掘机在实际施工作业中尾气排放特征,研究选取成都市不同建设工地在用的8台挖掘机,利用便携式尾气测量系统对其进行现实工况下的尾气排放测量,测试按挖掘机的不同作业特点分怠速、行走和作业进行.测量的尾气排放污染物包括CO、HC、NO和PM_2.5.结果表明,挖掘机的尾气排放随工况的不同而不同,怠速时NO排放平稳,行走和作业时排放速率波动较大.满足不同尾气排放标准的挖掘机,其尾气排放也有所不同,例如,国Ⅱ阶段的挖掘机与国Ⅰ阶段的挖掘机相比,其在怠速、行走、作业工况下尾气排放的NO分别减小8%、35%和5%,PM_2.5分别降低88%、87%和80%.另外,本研究中挖掘机尾气排放的实测结果与我国非道路机械尾气排放因子技术指南中推荐的用于排放清单估算的排放因子相比,也均有显著不同.这说明,开展非道路机械尾气排放现实工况下的测量,对于提高尾气排放清单精准度具有重要作用.     

Vertical and temporal distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus and relationship with their influencing factors in aquatic-terrestrial ecotone： a case study in Taihu Lake, China

Vertical and temporal distributions of N and P in soil solution in aquatic-terrestrial ecotone （ATE） of Taihu Lake were investigated, and the relations among N, P, ORP （oxidation reduction potential）, TOC, root system biomass and microorganism were studied. As a whole, significant declines in TN, NO3^--N, DON （dissolved organic nitrogen） and TP concentration in soil solution have occurred with increase of the depth, and reached their minima at 60 cm depth, except for NH4^＋-N, which increased with depth. The concentration of TP increased gradually from spring to winter in the topsoil, the maximum 0.08 mg/L presented in the winter while the minimum 0.03 mg/L in spring. In the deeper layer, the concentration value of TP fluctuated little. As for the NO3^--N, its seasonal variation was significant at 20 cm depth, its concentration increased gradually from spring to autumn, and decreased markedly in winter. Vertical and temporal distribution of DON is contrary to that of NO3^--N. The results also show that the variation of N and P in the percolate between adjacent layers is obviously different. The vertical variation ofTN, TP, NO3^--N, NH4^＋-N and DON is significant, of which the variation coefficient of NO3^--N along the depth reaches 100.23%, the highest; while the variation coefficient of DON is 41.14%, the smallest. The results of correlation analysis show that the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus correlate significantly with TOC, ORP, root biomass and counts of nitrifying bacteria. Most nutrients altered much from 20 to 40 cm along the depth. However, DON changed more between 60 and 80 cm. Results show that soil of 0-60 cm depth is active rhizoplane, with strong capability to remove the nitrogen and phosphorus in ATE. It may suggest that there exists the optimum ecological efficiency in the depth of above 60 cm in reed wetland. This will be very significant for ecological restoration and reestablishment.     

环境因子和火干扰因子对喀纳斯泰加林柳兰分布的影响

喀纳斯泰加林植被的生长和分布受火干扰和环境因子的共同作用,为了解喀纳斯泰加林林下柳兰分布与生态因子的关系,促进种群扩繁,共设置了35个样地进行调查和分析。建立柳兰重要值与生态因子矩阵,利用CCA分析法对不同火烧林分中柳兰的生长分布状况与林火烈度、火后时间、海拔、坡度、坡向、郁闭度、土壤pH值、速效钾、土壤有机质、灌木层盖度、草本层盖度和草本层物种多样性指数等20个生态因子的关系进行了分析。结果显示,第一轴主要反映林火烈度、海拔、坡向,灌木层盖度、pH值、有机质、全钾和速效钾的变化;第二轴主要反映林火烈度、火后时间、草本层盖度、坡向、坡位、土壤容重、电导率、有机质、有效磷和全氮的变化。对柳兰分布有显著影响的生态因子是林火烈度、有机质、海拔、坡向、灌木层盖度、土壤容重、全钾和速效钾,前两轴的累计贡献率为72.48%。柳兰适合在土壤呈弱酸性、海拔低、阳坡、土壤容重小、土壤有机质、全钾和速效钾含量高的环境中生长。柳兰是阳性植物,是火烧后的先锋植物。对影响柳兰分布的生态因子进行定量分离,结果发现环境因子和火干扰因子对柳兰样地物种分布的解释能力为88.2%,显示出较好的排序效果。喀纳斯泰加林受人为...     

旋转磁场引发的旋转火焰稳定性分析

通过对火焰受到旋转磁场作用下微分方程的分析，确定在磁雷诺数Rm＜1的情况下，由于磁场的旋转而产生的旋转火焰的稳定性条件，使人们更进一步地了解在磁场作用下旋转火焰燃烧的规律性。这样，就可以根据旋转磁场中旋转火焰的燃烧规律而了解实际火灾中火旋风的燃烧特性。从而在实际的火灾发生过程中有意识地对产生小的旋转火焰的某些特性加以控制，以避免火旋风的发生。这在实际火灾发生时，对于减少火灾带来的损失具有重要的意义。     

中国主要红树林湿地中甲基汞的分布特征及影响因素初探

通过对海南、广东、广西、福建的8个主要红树林地区沉积物中甲基汞以及环境因子的研究,分析了红树林生态系统中甲基汞的分布及其汞的甲基化作用.结果表明:①沉积物中总汞和甲基汞的含量分布并不一致.中国主要红树林区海南(三亚、东寨港)、广东(特呈岛、雷州、高桥、福田)、广西(大冠沙)、福建(浮宫)表层沉积物中甲基汞含量分别为(0.24±0.04)、(0.58±0.27)、(0.52±0.23)、(1.56±0.49)、(0.50±0.25)、(1.21±0.36)、(1.86±1.04)和(0.47±0.16)ng.g-1.甲基汞含量有很明显的地域区别,其含量顺序为大冠沙雷州福田东寨港特呈岛高桥浮宫三亚.工业和养殖业输入的汞和有机质显著增加了沉积物中甲基汞水平.对比世界其他河口湿地,我国红树林湿地沉积物中的甲基汞污染较为严重.②红树林沉积物的甲基化比率介于0.11%～7.13%.甲基化比率顺序由大到小为大冠沙特呈岛雷州福田高桥东寨港三亚浮宫.甲基化比率与砂粒显著正相关(p0.05),与粉粒和黏粒显著负相关(p0.05).③沉积物中总细菌含量范围为2.44×1010～1.91×1011CFU/g(以干重计,下同),浮宫三亚高桥东寨福田大冠沙.各环境因子对微生物数量的影响无显著差异.沉积物中SRB的含量介于1.73×104～4.92×106CFU/g,福田浮宫东寨港三亚高桥大冠沙.高有机废水是导致沉积物中SRB含量增高的主要原因.沉积物类型对SRB在沉积物表层的分布也有较大影响.甲基汞和环境因子之间并没有明显的相关性,外源输入是我国红树林湿地沉积物中的甲基汞污染的主要原因.