Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Cognitive attributes and aesthetic preferences in assessment and differentiation of landscapes

The increasing pace and scale of landscape changes involve objective measurements in order to estimate the effects of changes on people's landscape preferences in a meaningful way. In the literature, some attempts have been made to provide a more conceptual base related to landscape preferences. These concepts and their indicators need to be tested empirically in different contexts and landscape types. In the present study, different items related to theoretical concepts of both aesthetic preference and cognitive rating were examined. They were combined in an in situ questionnaire, which was conducted among undergraduate students in geography during two different field excursions. Stimuli consisted of 11 landscape vistas selected during the excursions. All vistas represent rather rural landscapes but they vary with regard to relief, degree of urbanisation, and degree of agricultural land use. Statistical analysis of all data yielded significant correlations between aesthetic and cognitive ratings. However, these correlations did not appear to be very strong. When considering landscape vistas separately, the relations between all cognitive ratings seemed to vary. Further, not all cognitive aspects had an equal predicting value for aesthetic preference. Moreover, this predicting value appeared to vary between different landscape vistas. The groups of interrelated cognitive aspects could not be associated consistently with theoretical concepts. The results demonstrated the inconsistencies existing between the contents of the theoretical concepts and the indicators found within the landscape. The findings argued for the necessity to distinguish between different ratings and landscape types instead of using unitary preference measures and generalized data when studying landscape preference.     

Flood monitoring in a semi-arid environment using spatially high resolution radar and optical data

The geographic term "Niger Inland Delta" stands for a vast plain of approximately 40,000 km(2), which is situated in the western Sahel (Republic of Mali). The Inland Delta is affected by yearly inundation through the variable water levels of the Niger-Bani river system. Due to a good availability of (surface) water, the ecosystem at the Niger Inland Delta serves as resting place stop-over for many migrating birds and other wildlife species as well as economic base for farmers and pastoral people. To foster the sustainable usage of its natural resources and to protect this natural heritage, the entire Niger Inland Delta became RAMSAR site in 2004. This paper aims to test to which extent texture analysis can improve the quality of flood monitoring in a semi-arid environment using spatially high resolution ASAR imaging mode data. We found the Gray Level Dependence Method (GLDM) was most suitable proceeding for our data. Several statistical parameters were calculated via co-occurrence matrices and were used to classify the images in different gradation of soil moisture classes. In a second step we used additional information from spatially high resolution optical data (ASTER) to improve the separability of open water areas from moisture/vegetated areas.     

可靠性技术的发展与应用

本文介绍了可靠性标准体系与参数体系,可靠性的分析与设计方法,可靠性试验的发展趋势,指出可靠性管理是产品可靠性工作的核心,以及提高电子设备可靠性的发展策略。     

中国环境管理干部学院教师健康现状的动态分析

主要采用调查法、访问法等,对中国环境管理干部学院教师健康现状进行了调查研究,并根据教师每周参加体育活动情况,教师经常参加体育活动内容及地点,教师的闲暇时间与体育支出,学院教师体检等情况,建议我院教师注重身体健康,增强健身意识,建议学院为教职工的健康工作和生活创造健身条件和环境。     

Process design optimization and risk analysis

Hazard identification and risk assessment are key aspects in process plant design. They are often applied in the final stages of the process at whatever the cost, unless financial constraints are imposed. However, a much better solution would be to introduce risk analysis earlier by including it in earlier stages of the design process, such as when the cost of a plant and the cost of any accidents that may occur are estimated. In this paper, an optimization methodology is proposed, in which both cost and risk (with a deterministic approach) are taken into account, to improve on the current situation. If a decision variable is chosen, an objective function will be established that makes it possible to analyze variations in overall costs, including the cost of the investment and the cost of accidents. This leads to an optimum situation in which costs are kept to a minimum. Of course, this optimization is subject to constraints, the greatest of which is the fact that risk must not exceed tolerated threshold levels. The procedure is explained and two examples, one involving a toxic release and the other a BLEVE/fireball, are used to illustrate it.     

可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。     

对杭州市部分自然灾害应急预案完备性评价的实证研究

采用故障树分析方法,从灾害的预防与应急准备、监测与预警、应急响应、后期处理4个方面,对2008年以前杭州市编制的部分自然灾害应急预案的完备度进行评价。结果表明:各类自然灾害应急预案的完备度不一,一些应急预案具有较高的完备度,而一些应急预案完备度偏低;大部分应急预案在灾害监测与预警方面具有较高的完备度,部分应急预案在灾害预防与应急准备、灾害后期处理完备度偏低;各应急预案中志愿者队伍的建设、灾害风险评价、应急人员的安全防护、灾后的保险理赔、重要设施的安全防护、启动应急避难场所等基本事件的缺失率较高,反映了部分应急预案编制过程中灾害全过程管理理念的缺失。     

基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析——以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证

从技术角度分析地铁坍塌事故发生的机理,以安全事故致因层次为基础,将管理因素分为4部分,即人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素;进一步分析地铁坍塌事故发生的原因,构建地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;实证分析杭州地铁坍塌事故的致因,并构建杭州地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;在实证分析基础上,从地铁施工前与地铁施工时两时间段,针对人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素4方面管理因素,提出地铁坍塌事故的防范措施。以事故机理研究为基础,以管理因素研究为核心是研究地铁坍塌事故的必由之路,将对地铁工程的安全管理有一定的指导意义。