Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.     

纸业生态产业链设计:由传统造纸工业向生态化纸业的转移

定义了可更新资源生态产业链,并依此设计了我国纸业生态产业链.提出"生态化结构与利益性诱因相结合"的可更新资源生态产业链设计的基本原理,以及建立可更新资源生态产业链的5个必要条件,即模仿生态闭路系统,增大可更新资源存量,向资源生产率要效益,开发社会性长期需要和系统创新活动.认为纸业生态产业链是可更新资源生态产业链的典型范例,是解决造纸工业3大制约性难题,使我国纸业由黑色产业变为绿色产业的有效途径.     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

聚硅酸铝铁-壳聚糖复合絮凝剂的制备与应用

采用聚硅酸铝铁与壳聚糖复合,制备低成本、高絮凝性能的新型无机-有机复合絮凝剂。结果表明:最佳复合条件为pH值1.4～2.0、原料配比(质量比)1:1、最佳温度70～80℃、反应时间16h。并将该絮凝剂用于造纸废水的处理实验,在投加量每500mL为5mL时,其对废水浊度、色度和COD的去除率分别为94.5%,61.5%和78.7%。     

绿色环保、高效节能、资源循环利用的清洁炼钢厂

主要介绍宝钢集团浦钢搬迁罗泾工程为建设绿色环保、高效节能、资源循环利用的现代清洁炼钢厂所采用的工艺技术、技术装备和技术措施。对炼钢工程中所采用的各种工艺技术、技术装备和技术措施等进行说明和分析。     

Bayesian Networks and Adaptive Management of Wildlife Habitat

Abstract: Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision‐support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive‐management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief‐updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.     

制药废水采用微生物絮凝剂和粉煤灰过滤预处理的初步试验研究

初步研究一种用于高浓度制药废水的预处理工艺方法。采用微生物絮凝剂和粉煤灰过滤相结合的预处理工艺,其综合的效果可以将高浓度制药废水中的COD去除80%,基本脱色澄清,且可以将对生化处理有抑制作用的抗生素效价予以降低。并初步讨论了该工艺在实际生产中的可行性。     

论述造纸行业控制可吸附有机卤化物的必要性

造纸业漂白过程会带来可吸附有机卤化合物的污染,这是一类含有包括二恶英在内的多种有毒有机物。随着全球贸易进程,控制造纸业可吸附有机卤化合物的排放已经刻不容缓。控制造纸行业可吸附有机卤化物应从工艺技术、排放标准执行、监测等方面着手。     

Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.