碳捕集与封存技术适用风险预防原则的理论建构与路径完善

以碳捕集与封存为典型的新兴技术在应对气候变化上的降碳功能显著,但该技术颇具不确定性。“决策于未知”成为政府规制技术风险的真实写照,如何在鼓励碳捕集与封存技术发展,助力“双碳”目标实现的同时,应对随之而来的风险挑战与安全诉求,既是国家必须肩负的义务,也是回应公众期待的内在要求。应运而生的风险预防原则作为应对气候变化的重要举措,为技术风险规制提供了合法性与正当性基础,对于碳捕获、封存技术发展与碳中和目标实现具有重要现实意义。为此,风险预防原则在技术规制中,应当整体遵循弱风险预防理念,彰显秩序、正义和效率的多元价值诉求,实现科学理性与社会理性的平衡。在此基础上,通过多手段的综合应用,开放的风险决策结构,强化风险管理的动态调试,以预防性环境行政公益诉讼为保障,将风险预防原则融汇于碳捕集与封存技术风险规制中。     

An inexact two-stage mixed integer linear programming method for solid waste management in the City of Regina

In this study, an interval-parameter two-stage mixed integer linear programming (ITMILP) model is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the City of Regina. In the ITMILP, both two-stage stochastic programming and interval linear programming are introduced into a general mixed integer linear programming framework. Uncertainties expressed as not only probability density functions but also discrete intervals can be reflected. The model can help tackle the dynamic, interactive and uncertain characteristics of the solid waste management system in the City, and can address issues concerning plans for cost-effective waste diversion and landfill prolongation. Three scenarios are considered based on different waste management policies. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment or justification of the existing waste flow allocation patterns, the long-term capacity planning of the City's waste management system, and the formulation of local policies and regulations regarding waste generation and management.     

Fe2+/H2O2法处理草浆纸厂废水的影响因素研究

Fenton试剂作为一种具有强氧化性的试剂,广泛地应用于废水处理的研究中.通过正交实验对Fenton试剂处理废水的几种影响因素进行了讨论,得出了影响因素的次序:Fe2 的投加量＞H2O2的投加量＞pH值＞反应时间.同时得到Fenton试剂处理造纸废水的最佳工艺条件:pH=5.0,FeSO4·7H2O的投加量为5.93g/L,H2O2的投加量为8.8‰(体积百分比),搅拌时间0.5 h,COD值由原来的2167 mg/L降至187 mg/L,COD去除率达到91.37%.     

工程方案选择的权重-属性决策分析方法

工程方案的选择是工程项目的战略决策问题 .从认知学原理出发 ,提出方案选择决策的 3个要素 :目标、权重和属性 .对决策目标体系的建立、权重的调查和赋值、属性的分析和规范化进行了讨论 ,提出了解决问题的思路和方法 .文中引用了一项工程方案决策实例 ,进一步说明权重 -属性分析方法的应用 .     

Why not in your backyard? scientific data and nonrational decisions about risk

The siting of hazardous waste facilities constitutes a special case of the many no win environmental decisions we face. They share common features: (a) we must decide something; (b) the decision affects some people more than others; (c) as scientists we are not 100% confident of our research results; (d) elements of the decision remain unquantifiable; and (e) decisions combine both scientific and political elements. In this paper we attempt to illustrate and analyze several examples that combine all of these elements and to suggest methods which would lead toward a scientific valid and politically useful resolution. Using well-known examples such as the public's fear of death from nuclear power, snakebite, and smoking, we attempt to integrate public perception of risks into a decision-making model. Finally, the conclusions deal with the role of policy making, public perception, and science in resolving environmental controversies. We do not, however, solve this perplexing problem.     

基于地理信息系统的森林火灾扑救辅助决策系统的研究

森林火灾的蔓延和扑救受林区地形,植被,水系及道路等多种地理因素的影响,本文通过建立林区地理信息系统,结合火蔓延数学模型,实现了对得杂条件下林火蔓延的计算机模拟预测,并在预测结果的基础上提出了合理,优化的防火道开设方案。     

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

利用H+浓度变化控制含Cl-的氨氮废水的电解时间

采用电化学间接氧化法处理含Cl^-的中高浓度氨氮废水,针对不同浓度的氨氮废水的电解时间的控制,提出利用废水的H⁺浓度变化控制氨氮废水实际处理时间.从理论计算及对模拟和实际氨氮废水进行电解分析发现：当废水氨氮还没有完全降解时,每一个NH₄⁺降解的过程中会生成一个H⁺,c（H⁺）随着时间线性上升;当氨氮刚好完全降解时,c（H⁺）达到最大值;此后继续电解且废水pH＜7时,电解过程形成的OH^-会持续消耗H⁺,c（H⁺）随着时间线性下降.利用pH计实时监测废水的pH值,通过程控信号转换器进行c（H⁺）与pH值的换算,将pH值信号转化为c（H⁺）信号,可提高决策的准确性和灵敏度.     

综合风险管理的梯形架构

首次提出了综合风险管理的梯形架构,它从下往上分别由风险意识块、量化分析块和优化决策块构成.风险意识块涉及文化观念、社会结构和立法等,是综合风险管理的社会基础;量化分析块涉及风险分析的所有科学和技术之研究内容,是综合风险管理的科学支撑;优化决策块涉及风险管理的决策体系和目标,是综合风险管理的终端动作部分.梯形架构是一个社会架构,属社会组织学范畴,支撑其运行的是一系列有机组成的物理结构,量化分析块内的工作质量由相关数学模型的品质来决定.