More is not always better: coping with ambiguity in natural resources management

Coping with ambiguities in natural resources management has become unavoidable. Ambiguity is a distinct type of uncertainty that results from the simultaneous presence of multiple valid, and sometimes conflicting, ways of framing a problem. As such, it reflects discrepancies in meanings and interpretations. Under the presence of ambiguity it is not clear what problem is to be solved, who should be involved in the decision processes or what is an appropriate course of action. Despite the extensive literature about methodologies and tools to deal with uncertainty, not much has been said about how to handle ambiguities. In this paper, we discuss the notions of framing and ambiguity, and we identify five broad strategies to handle it: rational problem solving, persuasion, dialogical learning, negotiation and opposition. We compare these approaches in terms of their assumptions, mechanisms and outcomes and illustrate each approach with a number of concrete methods.     

Devils lake emergency outlet diversion conflict

The Devils Lake Emergency Outlet Diversion conflict is systematically studied from a strategic viewpoint using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in order to obtain insights about the resolution of this nagging international dispute. By modelling the conflict for the situation existing as of July 2005, just before the project began operation, the dispute is put into proper perspective and, subsequently, a stability analysis is carried out to obtain potential resolutions or equilibria. The results of a sensitivity analysis accurately predict the deal which actually took place when Canada and the American state of North Dakota reached a negotiated settlement. Finally, suggestions are put forward for improving the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 between Canada and the United States.     

Improving our legacy: incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans

The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ~25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation.     

Five propositions for improving decision making about the environment in developing communities: insights from the decision sciences

Decisions focused on managing natural resources in developing areas present some of the most imposing challenges to policy makers, scientists, and stakeholders alike. The response of policy makers and the technical community in the face of these challenges has been significant. However, our experiences as researchers and facilitators of group planning and decision-making processes have left us concerned about the lack of attention devoted to supporting the underlying processes used to make these complex decisions. To this end, we present five propositions based on work in the decision sciences that we believe stand out as essential for improving decision-making processes in developing communities.     

基于D-S理论的企业安全绩效综合评定研究

为客观评定企业安全绩效,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的企业安全绩效综合评定方法。在确定安全绩效评定指标的基础上,利用模糊函数和群决策方法处理评价过程中的不确定信息,将多源决策信息转换为同一框架下的评价信息,然后根据各决策信息的重要度,通过D-S证据理论的mass函数和证据合成方法对安全绩效评价群决策中的不确定性信息逐层融合。实例表明,该方法能够克服D-S冲突问题,保证企业安全绩效综合评定信息融合结果的准确度,企业安全管理的优劣势的表征更为直观。     

基于“评价-模拟-优化”的流域环境经济决策模型研究

流域管理是一个具有经济、社会与水环境等多维发展目标的复杂系统,不同目标之间存在复杂的非线性响应关系,如何模拟、协调、优化各种目标,是长期制约流域环境经济优化决策的关键技术瓶颈之一.当前在构建流域模型时往往缺乏全局性和系统性的考虑,采用线性单向建模思路,忽略了流域环境经济问题的复杂性、综合性和整体性,难以实现最优决策.针对这一不足,结合现有流域模型的建模经验与流域量化管理的需求,从系统优化发展的角度出发,基于环境经济协调度模型、系统动力学模拟模型和Powell优化模型提出了流域环境经济优化决策模型(简称ASO模型).该模型弥补了现有流域模型仅能在概念上描述因果反馈关系的不足,在数值模型上实现流域经济-社会-水环境各子系统中反馈回路的闭合,提供了一种对流域系统复杂反馈关系的模拟方法.最后,基于该模型对抚仙湖流域进行了案例研究.     

A hybrid approach using AHP–TOPSIS–entropy methods for sustainable ranking of structural materials

Nowadays, many countries are looking towards sustainability as a goal because our world has limited resources and serious environmental impacts. In the construction industry, the process of sustainable selection of structural material is considered one of the keys to achieve more sustainable construction. In this paper, the theories of decision making are utilised to develop an approach for evaluation and ranking the structural materials over their total life based on sustainability criteria using multi-attribute decision-making methods. One of them is Analytical Hierarchy Process which is utilised to build the problem hierarchical structure and assign weights of the predetermined sustainable factors. The other is Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution which is utilised to rank the structural materials within both each material life cycle phase and the complete material life cycle phases. The third is the concept of entropy by Shannon to evaluate the weight factor for each phase of material life cycle. The proposed approach presents an objective, systematic and comprehensive method for the sustainable ranking of materials that links between the structural element design and the sustainable selection of materials.     

废植物热解制气制油制炭的研究

主要考察了不同废植物的热解产气产油（液）产炭效果及不同过程条件的热解产气产油产炭效果。可用作热解制气制油制炭的废植物包括一切草木本植物,含有大量的木质素和纤维素,属于可再生能源。废植物热解制气制油制炭,可以使大量的被遗弃废植物得到充分利用,变废为宝,同时,可以帮助解决未来可能出现的能源危机,为废弃物的资源化、为未来的能源发展提供了新的方向。另外,由于废植物的广泛可取,废植物热解制气特别适用于在中小城市和农村推广应用,改善人们的生活条件和居住环境,进一步缩小城乡差距,为国家的经济发展做出贡献。     

白酒酿造废水治理方案分析

某白酒酿造厂年产优质大曲酒12000吨（65％原酒）,该厂产生的黄水底锅水原采用“厌氧＋好氧”工艺进行处理,难以满足标准要求。为达标排放,现对该废水处理工艺进行了改进,根据酿造废水中有机物浓度较高,氨氮浓度较低,可生化性较好的特点,选用两级预处理加两级厌氧处理,再加A／O工艺（厌氧水解一好氧）处理方法。两级厌氧处理分别采用UASB厌氧反应器和高效厌氧生物滤池。UASB厌氧处理工艺去除了大部分有机物,减轻了后续好氧处理工艺的处理压力,达到较好的处理效果。运行结果表明,经该工艺处理后．废水中的COD、BOD,等指标均能达标排放,有利于企业的可持续发展。     

含砷污泥制砖的毒性浸出试验研究

将含砷污泥和粘土按一定比例混合制砖,并对样品砖的毒性浸出进行了研究。结果表明对As、Zn、Pb、Cd离子的固化效果好,浸出毒性低于国家标准。还分析了浸出液的pH值、Eh和溶解氧对重金属离子浸出浓度的影响。