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961.
    
ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.  相似文献   
962.
Participatory environmental and resource management is premised on open communication to reach consensus. However, deliberate and open communication cannot adequately address silent conflict. This begs two questions. First, how is the existence of covert communication and silent conflict to be recognized and addressed? Second, how are the wider social relations and traditions that encompass communication and conflict to be described and explained? These questions revolve around communicative power. Communication of environmental knowledge is deeply embedded in social power structures, with direct implications for participatory resource planning and implementation. Ethnographic research conducted at a failed community-managed fish farming project in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia shows that a culture of harmony and respect for authority can silence environmental conflict in the hierarchical “community.” Three propositions are offered. First, communication amnesia and exclusion jeopardize participation. Second, cultures of harmony and silent conflict shape planning processes and outcomes. Third, the weak use manipulation and communication strategy to acquire a “voice” while preserving harmony. These propositions address five unresolved issues in participatory resource management: analysis of groups, contextuality, social relationships, nonparticipants, and informal communication. Power, tradition, and social networks affect the valuing of knowledge relative to the power of different individuals and institutions to communicate priorities, values, and needs. These factors are critical to the inclusion of both participants and nonparticipants.  相似文献   
963.
964.
The commercial fishing fleet in New Bedford, Massachusetts, USA, harvests seafood on George’s Bank, home of one of the nation’s most productive fisheries. We calculated the energy return on investment (EROI) and carbon intensity of protein harvest in the New Bedford fisheries from 1968 to 1988. EROI is the ratio of the energy content of the edible fish protein harvested to the quantity of fossil fuel energy used directly in the harvesting process. Carbon intensity is the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) released (from the burning of fossil fuels) per calorie of edible fish protein harvested. The results show that the EROI of protein harvest declined from 0.18 to 0.028 from 1968 to 1988, indicating that the energy used to harvest seafood increased from about 6 to 36 kcal of fuel for each kilocalorie of protein harvested. The quantity of CO2 released per calorie of edible fish protein is a linear function of energy use and therefore increased in a similar manner. During this period there was a large increase in fishing effort (caused by the increase in the real price of seafood products, favorable tax treatment for new vessel construction, and low interest loans from the government), and a decline in several important species of fish. The results suggest that fishing pressure could be managed effectively by the regulation of fuel use by the fleet. Despite the increase in the price of many seafood products, fishermen absorbed many of the costs of increasing scarcity in the form of longer working hours and fewer men per vessel.  相似文献   
965.
ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.  相似文献   
966.
建设项目竣工环境保护验收监测对于落实“三同时”制度、实现总量控制目标、为环境监督管理提供重要技术支持具有重要意义与作用。目前,验收监测在管理体制、收费标准、成果应用等方面存在的突出问题,可通过创新管理机制、健全管理制度、提高管理水平等具体措施解决。  相似文献   
967.
Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.  相似文献   
968.
The term biodiversity describes the array of interacting, genetically distinct populations and species in a region, the communities they comprise, and the variety of ecosystems of which they are functioning parts. Ecosystem health, a closely related concept, is described in terms of a process identifying biological indicators, end points, and values. The decline of populations or species, an accelerating trend worldwide, can lead to simplification of ecosystem processes, thus threatening the stability and sustainability of ecosystem services directly relevant to human welfare in the chain of economic and ecological relationships. The challenge of addressing issues of such enormous scope and complexity has highlighted the limitations of ecology-as-science. Additionally, biosphere-scale conflicts seem to lie beyond the scope of conventional economics, leading to differences of opinion about the commodity value of biodiversity and of the services that intact ecosystems provide. In the face of these uncertainties, many scientists and economists have adopted principles that clearly assign burdens of proof to those who would promote the loss of biodiversity and that also establish near-trump (preeminent) status for ecological integrity. Electric utility facilities and operations impact biodiversity whenever construction, operation, or maintenance of generation, delivery, and support facilities alters landscapes and habitats and thereby impacts species. Although industry is accustomed to dealing with broad environmental concerns (such as global warming or acid rain), the biodiversity issue invokes hemisphere-wide, regional, local, and site-specific concerns all at the same time. Industry can proactively address these issues of scope and scale in two main ways: first, by aligning strategically with the broad research agenda put forth by informed scientists and institutions; and second, by supporting focused management processes whose results will contribute incrementally to the broader agenda of rebuilding or maintaining biodiversity.  相似文献   
969.
    
ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.  相似文献   
970.
Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model   总被引:92,自引:3,他引:92  
Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.  相似文献   
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