基于LEAP模型的临港新片区中长期碳排放预测及减排潜力分析

基于上海临港新片区现有统计数据,结合其未来社会经济发展、产业结构和技术进步等,构建了LEAP-临港模型,分析了基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下新片区的能源需求和碳排放演化趋势.为增强模型的预测精准度,采用Logistic人口生长模型对临港未来人口数据进行预测,并利用学习曲线模型模拟相关减碳技术的成本发展趋势.同时,构建了碳减排技术的经济性评价模型,通过绘制边际减排成本曲线对典型减碳技术的经济成本及减排潜力进行评估.结果表明,强化低碳情景下,2060年临港新片区一次能源消费中可再生能源占比达69%,电能在终端能源需求中占比达91%;临港新片区可在2030年实现碳达峰,且2060年碳排放量相较基准情景下降94%.就减排贡献度而言,清洁能源替代、产业结构优化和终端能效提升对临港碳减排起到关键作用,中期（至2035年）分别贡献35.1%、27.3%和16.2%的碳减排量,长期（至2060年）分别贡献50.6%、8.75%和7.7%的碳减排量.就具体减碳技术而言,氢能发电、电解水制氢及碳捕获和利用与封存（CCUS）技术对实现净零排放意义重大,但减排成本相对较高.研究成果可为临港及相关地区的低碳绿色发展提供思路和借鉴.     

Environmental deterioration of farmlands caused by the irrational use of agricultural technologies

Without considering the ecosystem-dependence of agricultural production, irrational use of agricultural technologies could bring only short-term economic benefits but leave long-term environmental deterioration. If some agricultural lands have to be abandoned because of these technologies such as chemical films or groundwater depletion, it will aggravate the burden of remaining lands for maintaining or enhancing production. Thus, agricultural production should be a part of public services, requiring the consideration of interests of different stakeholders and sustainability.     

气相色谱-三重四级杆质谱测定环境样品中17种二 英

研究了基于Agilent气相色谱-三重四级杆质谱测定环境样品中17种二 英的分析方法.结果表明,在浓度范围0.5~2000ng/mL之间具有良好的线性,17种二 英的相对响应因子在0.96~1.21之间,相对标准偏差< 14%,定量限范围在0.080~2.83pg/μL之间,适合环境样品中超痕量二 英的分析.利用该方法对第15轮二 英国际实验室比对的沉积物样品进行了测试,总I-TEQ值落在Intercal给定的中位值±标准偏差范围内.研究选取污染源烟道气、飞灰、土壤和沉积物等40多个环境样品进行测试,并与高分辨质谱测定结果比较表明,当环境样品中二 英浓度在0~60ng I-TEQ范围,两者数据具有较好的线性相关性,R2=0.997.就17种单体而言,利用三重四级杆质谱测定的2,3,7,8-TCDF和1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF结果会高于高分辨质谱,而1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD的结果低于高分辨质谱的测定值.鉴于三重四级杆质谱在购置、维护和能耗等方面的低成本优势,本方法可作为简易经济的环境中超痕量二 英的分析方法.     

2002~2009年兰州PM10人体健康经济损失评估

参考近年来公开发表的国内外流行病学文献,筛选出PM10的健康效应终点和适合于兰州地区的暴露-反应关系系数,对2002~2009年兰州地区PM10人体健康经济损失进行了计算.结果表明2002年以来兰州地区PM10人体健康经济损失并未明显升高,而是逐年波动;年损失值均在10亿元以上,其中2009年最高为16.6亿元; PM10人体健康经济损失与GDP的比值呈明显下降的趋势.     

Toxic substances: Measures and measurements†

The formulation of a sound policy for environmental protection and toxic substances control requires knowledge of the presence and concentration of environmental contaminants. For this reason monitoring programs have been set up in the Netherlands for water, drinking water, and air pollution. The Netherlands system for air pollution, monitoring of the substances SO2, NOχ, CO, O₃ is now fully automated. Some examples will be given to show the acquisition and management and interpretation of air pollution measurements.

Various smaller projects, supported by the Department of Health and Environmental Protection include measurement of indoor air‐contaminants, contaminants in soil and hazardous waste sites, and contaminants in biotic samples such as for instance PCB's in eels and seals and mussels. Moreover a Coordinating Committee regularly collects measurements from various sources in the Netherlands regarding pesticide residues and contaminants in food.

For cost‐effective monitoring the accuracy of the measurements must be chosen with regard to the biological effect concentration of the pollutant. The necessity of proper control measurements to establish background levels and the necessity of ring‐tests to increase interlaboratory reproducibility is discussed. In cost‐effective monitoring the minimum number of measurements, which are necessary to check the effect of environmental protection measures, must be defined through proper sampling.     

基于自然保护区属性的管理成本分析

从自然保护区的管理成本构成入手,分析了自然保护区属性对不同尺度上管理成本的影响方式,在分类总结自然保护区管理成本的分析方法基础上,提出基于自然保护区属性的管理成本分析流程。该研究结果可为准确掌握自然保护区管理成本规模与构成、科学评估与预测资金投入后的使用效率与保护效果提供支持,并可为揭示自然保护区复合生态系统格局与过程提供新思路。     

Use of linkage mapping and centrality analysis across habitat gradients to conserve connectivity of gray wolf populations in western North America

Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids the binary classification of landscapes into patch and matrix required by patch-based graph analyses of connectivity. It also avoids the focus on delineating paths between individual pairs of core areas characteristic of most corridor- or linkage-mapping methods of connectivity analysis. Conservation of regional habitat connectivity has the potential to facilitate recovery of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), a species currently recolonizing portions of its historic range in the western United States. We applied 3 contrasting linkage-mapping methods (shortest path, current flow, and minimum-cost-maximum-flow) to spatial data representing wolf habitat to analyze connectivity between wolf populations in central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming). We then applied 3 analogous betweenness centrality metrics to analyze connectivity of wolf habitat throughout the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada to determine where it might be possible to facilitate range expansion and interpopulation dispersal. We developed software to facilitate application of centrality metrics. Shortest-path betweenness centrality identified a minimal network of linkages analogous to those identified by least-cost-path corridor mapping. Current flow and minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality identified diffuse networks that included alternative linkages, which will allow greater flexibility in planning. Minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality, by integrating both land cost and habitat capacity, allows connectivity to be considered within planning processes that seek to maximize species protection at minimum cost. Centrality analysis is relevant to conservation and landscape genetics at a range of spatial extents, but it may be most broadly applicable within single- and multispecies planning efforts to conserve regional habitat connectivity.     

定费用时尿素热解脱硝系统的可靠性研究

针对费用最小化理论在可靠性分配中的局限性,建立更切合实际的固定费用下可靠度极大化思想。将该思想运用到尿素热解脱硝系统中,针对系统结构功能特征及运行特点,深入分析各系统间逻辑功能关系,提出了完整的尿素热解脱硝系统可靠性分配模型。并引入可靠性成本预估函数,以固定费用为约束,建立数学模型,实现了系统可靠性指标的最优化分配。最后以脱硝系统为例,获得具有实际意义的数值解,证明了该方法的可用性及正确性。     

低成本废水生态处理组合工艺在农家乐废水治理中的应用

以一典型农家乐生活废水为处理对象,采用以低成本废水生态处理技术为主体的组合处理工艺,研究了该工艺对农家乐废水的处理效果。结果表明:该废水处理系统稳定运行时对COD和NH4+-N的平均去除率分别达80%和50%以上,出水ρ(TP)一直保持在2.0 mg/L以下。该废水处理技术不仅简单易行、效果好,而且建造及运行成本低,在农村分散型废水治理方面具有良好的推广应用价值。     

中国实现碳达峰的政策建议——基于碳定价机制模型的多情景模拟分析

碳定价机制是利用市场机制推动碳减排、减缓气候变化方案的核心内容,包括碳排放权交易和碳税等措施。尽管新冠肺炎疫情打乱了经济发展节奏,但是中国主动提高国家自主贡献力度,积极推进战略提升与政策强化。本研究构建并运用"碳定价机制模型"模拟涵盖不同主体范围及政策组合下的碳排放权交易市场运行情况,分析评估碳减排效果及经济影响,为丰富完善我国实现碳达峰的政策工具提供技术支持。