Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

中国快速城镇化的边际环境污染效应变化实证分析

通过建立模型并实际测算城镇化每增长1个百分点引起的污染物产排放变化量,来分析我国城镇化发展的边际环境污染效应。结果显示,我国城镇化发展与环境污染之间的矛盾仍十分突出,1996-2009年期间,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的城镇生活污水排放量、COD产生量、NH3-N产生量、NOx排放量、CO2排放量、城镇生活垃圾产生量仍呈上升趋势。由于近年来城镇污水处理率明显提升,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的COD和NH3-N排放量由＂十五＂的增加逐步转为＂十一五＂的减少;由于城镇生活用煤的减少,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的SO2排放量在＂十五＂＂十一五＂期间都呈减少趋势。为减少环境污染,我国应选择有中国特色的城镇化发展道路,合理把握城镇化发展速度和节奏,促进城镇与环境协调发展。     

基于作业成本管理在建筑企业施工中的应用研究

以作业成本管理理论为基础,研究了建筑施工企业的作业成本核算以及计算模型,通过对作业成本管理应用和导入作业成本管理理论与方案设计的分析,比较了施工企业与项目管理作业.结果表明,其作业成本管理模式完全适用于建筑施工企业作业成本的管理,并能够有效地对建筑施工企业的作业成本进行有效控制.图1,参5.     

基于不同评估方法的养殖池塘富营养化环境成本研究——以上海青浦地区常规鱼类养殖池塘为例

采用物料平衡法、置换成本法、条件价值评估法（CVM）和COD价格法对池塘养殖环境成本进行评估。结果显示,基于4种评估方法估算得到的池塘养殖环境成本由大到小依次为置换成本法（4 400元.a-1.hm-2）、COD价格法（4 191.99元.a-1.hm-2）、物料平衡法（3 925.76元.a-1.hm-2）和CVM法（2 007.8元.a-1.hm-2）,认为在不考虑时间和经济成本的前提下,基于COD价格法测算得到的结果可能最接近于环境成本的真实值。采用4种评估方法测得的环境成本占常规鱼类养殖经济总收益的6%～14%,表明采取相关措施防治水产养殖环境污染很有必要。     

基于机会约束规划的航班应急调度问题研究

为应对民航突发情况,保障民航运行安全,提出应急调度这一概念。阐述常规情况下航班调度基本模型,分析其在应急情况下的弊端。引入机会约束,构建应对突发状况的应急调度模型。研究兼顾航空公司成本、航班运行安全及旅客随机需求的机型分配问题(FAP)模型和机组排班问题(CSP)模型。比较混合智能算法、隐枚举法、等价转化法的优缺点及适用度。根据案例数据,使用Matlab软件编程,并采用随机模拟与粒子群(PSO)算法相结合的智能算法对模型求解。结果表明,机会约束规划模型在考虑随机因素的情况下,比基本模型更符合实际动态环境。     

煤炭安全成本及其变动趋势分析

煤炭安全成本是煤炭生产的一种"附加性成本",它是煤炭企业安全工作质量的综合反映,是安全决策和安全工作评价的重要指标.对于煤炭企业来讲,安全生产的特殊性决定了安全成本在煤炭生产成本中占有很高的比例.研究煤炭安全成本及其变化趋势,对于促进安全与生产的协调发展,合理控制安全投入和优化安全成本结构,都具有重要的理论价值和现实意义.本文结合煤炭生产实际,理论与实践相结合地提出了安全成本分析指标,并在现场调研的基础上,利用调研资料,采用回归分析方法,对安全成本进行了变动趋势分析,建立了煤炭安全成本分析模型.通过模型分析得出了安全成本随安全保证程度而变化的规律.安全成本趋势分析及相关分析模型的建立,为煤炭企业进行安全管理与决策提供了有效的分析手段.     

滨海湿地类自然保护区的成本-效益研究——以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例

以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例,分析了滨海湿地生态系统所提供的生态系统服务及保护该系统所产生的成本.采用市场价值法、影子工程法和专家评估法估算了保护区内滨海湿地生态系统服务价值.2010年盐城保护区内滨海湿地生态系统产生的保护成本为8.18× 109元,其中管理成本为1.95× 107元,机会成本为8.16× 109元;保护区产生的效益为1.83× 1010元.结果表明,盐城保护区获得的效益远大于其付出的成本,盐城保护区的存在具有经济学上的收益优势.因此,在盐城滨海湿地建立自然保护区具有巨大的生态效益,这种优势更多地体现为长期的综合效益,且难以用货币形式直接兑现.对待自然保护区建设与管理应形成整体、长期的理念,不能因短期利益和局部利益而牺牲自然保护区,真正做到对保护区的永久保护和持续利用.     

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology

Global warming can be curbed by pricing carbon emissions and thus substituting fossil fuel with renewable energy consumption. Breakthrough technologies (e.g., fusion energy) can reduce the cost of such policies. However, the chance of such a technology coming to market depends on investment. We model breakthroughs as an irreversible tipping point in a multi-country world, with different degrees of international cooperation. We show that international spill-over effects of R&D in carbon-free technologies lead to double free-riding, strategic over-pollution and underinvestment in green R&D, thus making climate change mitigation more difficult. We also show how the demand structure determines whether carbon pricing and R&D policies are substitutes or complements.     

Carbon taxation,OPEC and the end of oil

I develop a differential game between an oil cartel and an importer investing in research and development (R&D) to reduce the cost of a green substitute to oil. In equilibrium, the cartel is forced to deter the substitute, which thus imposes a price ceiling falling over time. Credible carbon taxes are below the Pigovian level, implying the importer cannot internalise the full pollution externality, much less capture resource rents. Without carbon pricing, the importer curtails long-run pollution using a costly R&D programme. Normatively, climate policy will be more expensive if relying on green R&D programmes only.