退耕还林补偿政策与农户响应的关联分析——以冀西北地区为例

按照农户退耕还林选择以利益最大化为目标的经济学假设，本文应用成本效益分析方法，构建了国家补偿政策与农户响应的关联分析模型。并应用该模型对研究区被调查农户进行实证分析，得到对退耕还林的经济效益预期是农户退耕还林意愿的决定因素的基本结论。为此，从充分尊重农民意愿、加快农村剩余劳动力转移、加强基本农田建设、提高农民文化素质等方面，提出了保障退耕还林生态工程有效实施的措施建议。     

A novel framework-based cuckoo search algorithm for sizing and optimization of grid-independent hybrid renewable energy systems

Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) turned into an appealing choice for supplying loads in remote areas. The application of smart grid principals in HRES provides a communication between the load and generation from the HRES. Using smart grid in the HRES will optimally utilize the generating resources to reschedule the loads depending on its importance. This paper presents a new proposed design and optimization simulation program for techno-economic sizing of grid-independent hybrid PV/wind/diesel/battery energy system using Cuckoo search (CS) optimization algorithm. Using of CS will help to get the global minimum cost condition and prevent the simulation to be stuck around local minimum. A new proposed simulation program (NPSP) is acquainted using CS to determine the optimum size of each component of the HRES for the lowest cost of generated energy and the lowest value of dummy energy, at highest reliability. A detailed economic methodology to obtain the price of the generated energy has been introduced. Results showed that using CS reduced the time required to obtain the optimal size with higher accuracy than other techniques used iterative techniques, Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Numerous significant outcomes can be extracted from the proposed program that could help scientists and decision makers.     

The effect of helmets on motorcycle outcomes in a level I trauma center in Connecticut

Objective: The State of Connecticut has a partial motorcycle helmet law, which has been linked to one of the lowest helmet compliance rates in the Northeast. We examine the clinical and financial impact of low motorcycle helmet use in the State of Connecticut.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study comparing the outcomes between helmeted and nonhelmeted motorcycle crash victims over a 12.5-year period, from July 2, 2002, to December 31, 2013. All patients who were admitted to the hospital after a motorcycle crash were included in the study. Patients were stratified into helmeted and nonhelmeted cohorts. Group differences were compared using t-test or Wilcoxon rank test for continuous variables and chi-square test for dichotomous outcomes. Regression models were created to evaluate predictors of helmet use, alcohol and drugs as confounding variables, and factors that influenced hospital costs.

Results: The registry included 986 eligible patients. Of this group, 335 (34%) were helmeted and 651 (66%) were nonhelmeted. Overall, nonhelmeted patients had a worse clinical presentation, with lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS; P <.01), higher Injury Severity Score (ISS; P <.01), higher incidence of loss of consciousness (LOC; P <.01), longer intensive care unit (ICU; P <.01) admissions, and higher incidence of head (P <.01) or face injuries (P <.01). Nonhelmeted patients were also twice as more likely to die from their injuries (P =.04, odds ratio [OR] = 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–3.45). Financially, nonhelmeted patients incurred mean hospital costs of $18,458, whereas helmeted patients incurred $14,970 (P =.18). ISS, GCS, and ICU length of stay were significantly correlated with increased hospital costs (P <.01). Not using a helmet was a significant predictor of mortality (P =.04) after adjusting for alcohol/drug use and age.

Conclusions: Helmet use is associated with lower injury severity and increased survival after a motorcycle crash. These outcomes remained consistent even after controlling for age and alcohol and drug use. The medical and financial impact of Connecticut's partial helmet law should be carefully evaluated to petition for increased education and enforcement of helmet use.     

我国淘汰高排放车辆政策评估——以北京为例

淘汰高排放老旧车辆是移动源污染防控的关键,研究对北京市淘汰高排放车辆政策的效果和效率进行了评估,结论如下:一是政策效率不高,政策的保障机制不完善,环境治理体系仍需优化;二是机动车污染治理没有遵循"污染者付费"原则,无法保证政策的成本有效性。建议对淘汰高污染车辆政策进行改进,在保证政策成本有效的基础上优化机动车污染排放状况。     

重庆三峡库区生态补偿标准差别化模型构建及应用研究

生态补偿是当前国际公认的重要的生态环境保护手段,但如何表征、量化和确定生态补偿标准,完善生态补偿机制,仍是当前生态补偿研究中的一个重要而未解决的问题.本研究以重庆三峡库区后续发展过程中不同本底类型的典型样区为研究对象,通过对重庆三峡库区各区域的自然和经济条件的分析,基于生态系统服务价值法和机会成本法,构建生态补偿标准化模型,引入差异系数,对重庆三峡库区各区域的生态补偿标准进行测算,科学制定各区域生态补偿分配标准.结果表明:位于库区西南段的主城区(包括渝北区、江北区、渝中区、江津区和北碚区等),这些区域经济实力雄厚,社会经济差异系数较大,但由于机会成本较低,受到自然价值和区域公平差异系数的影响较小,所以最终生态补偿额度比较低;三峡库区北段(巫山县、巫溪县、云阳县、奉节县和开县)的生态补偿额度较高,主要原因是机会成本大,受差异系数影响,理论损失成本大,但在这些地区的自然资源比较丰富,适合开展旅游行业,增加经济收入,缩小与其他区县的社会经济差距.     

污染物治理成本测算方法及排污费征收标准调整方案研究——以南京市排污费征收标准调整为例

对于当前我国绝大多数省、市的排污费征收标准都远低于治理污染的成本,经济杠杆在环境管理工作中的作用大大降低的状况.认为提高排污费征收标准势在必行.排污费征收标准调整必须以污染物治理成本为依据,为探讨获得接近实际的污染物治理成本是排污费征收标准调整这一难点,以南京市排污费调整为例,提出污染物治理成本的调查方法,通过以此方法调查的结果为依据,提出南京提升排污费征收标准调整的方案,并预测调整后对企业经营和环境管理的影响.     

低成本复合材料在小型飞艇吊舱上的应用

目的研究低成本复合材料在小型飞艇吊舱上的工程应用。方法通过材料选型、吊舱结构设计、铺层设计、强度分析和试验试飞等途径。结果实现了低成本复合材料在中小型飞艇吊舱上的应用。结论相比传统铝合金吊舱,复合材料吊舱质量减轻约40%、外形更美观、装配强度降低、成本相当。     

开封市西区污水处理厂升级改造工程建设和运行

开封市西区污水处理厂在一期"三沟式氧化沟"工艺基础上增加了后续深度处理工艺,使二期改造工程达到了提标升级要求。实践表明:采取"三沟式氧化沟+絮凝沉淀+纤维转盘滤池+二氧化氯消毒"工艺可保证污水厂的出水水质稳定达一级A排放标准,吨水能耗比改造前仅增加了0.04k Wh,电耗和药剂费吨水成本增加在0.1元左右,该改造工艺可在采用氧化沟工艺的污水处理厂的提标升级改造中推广应用;总结的改造技术及调试和运行经验对提标升级改造工程的实施具有重要的借鉴意义。     

CO2收集封存战略及其对我国远期减缓CO2排放的潜在作用

碳收集封存(CCS)已被广泛地认为是一种潜在的、可供选择的CO₂减排方案,以稳定大气中CO₂浓度、减缓气候变化.本文介绍了CCS的3大环节：碳的捕获、运输与储存,对不同捕获技术及其技术经济参数进行分析评价,介绍了不同碳地质储存的机理、潜力与成本, 以及CCS的应用对全球减缓碳排放的作用.更新中国MARKAL模型,加入各种可能的CCS技术,特别是考虑CCS的煤间接液化以及多联产技术,以同时考虑石油安全与CO₂减排.通过设置不同的情景,应用中国MARKAL模型研究了CCS对我国远期（到2050年）减缓CO₂排放的潜在作用,结果表明,CCS技术的应用不仅可能减少我国的碳排放,降低边际碳减排成本（碳减排率50%时,下降率达45%）,减轻高减排率时对核电的高度依赖,还可能使我国更长时间地清洁利用煤炭资源（在C70情景下,2050年煤在一次能源消费中的比例可从10%增到30%）.我国应重视对CCS技术的研发以及示范项目的建设.     

河道曝气提升河流水质的WASP模型研究

曝气充氧是修复受污染河道的重要技术,数学模型是预测、评估环境污染状况的重要方法.本研究应用WASP水质模型评价不同时段河道曝气对河流水质的提升作用.初期模型验证结果表明,WASP水质模型拟合结果与实际监测结果基本吻合,可为水污染治理工程提供参考依据.在此基础上,对不同曝气条件进行模拟分析,结果表明,河道曝气能够有效降低河水中的化学需氧量(COD)和氨氮(NH+4-N)浓度,改善水质;随着曝气河段内溶解氧(DO)水平的提升,水质虽不断改善,但改善幅度逐渐减小;全年不同月份曝气效果差异显著,5~9月曝气效果较好.结合经济投入和环境效益,最终确定夏季提升DO水平达到4 mg·L-1为河道曝气最优条件.