基于实用弱化缓冲算子的质量成本灰色 DGM 预测模型

目的运用施以弱化缓冲算子的灰色DGM模型进行质量成本的预测。方法利用积分函数去除区间型数据的不确定性,将其转化为信息无偏的实数。进而分析质量成本和相关指标间的关联程度,并引入二阶弱化缓冲算子对受干扰的成本时间序列进行处理,最后建立质量成本估算预测的灰色DGM模型。结果结合案例与常用的指数函数作比较,结果显示,灰色DGM模型对质量成本的模拟精度更高,模拟误差可由指数模型的1.689%下降至0.118%。结论此模型能有效改善预测精度,具有一定的科学性和合理性。     

Environmental degradation and remediation: is economics part of the problem?

It is argued that standard environmental economic and 'ecological economics', have the same fundamentals of valuation in terms of money, based on a demand curve derived from utilitymaximization. But this approach leads to three different measuresof value. An invariant measure of value exists only if the consumer has 'homothetic preferences'. In order to obtain a numerical estimate of value, specific functional forms are necessary, but typically these estimates do not converge. This is due to the fact that the underlying economic model is not structurally stable.According to neoclassical economics, any environmental remediation can be justified only in terms of increases in consumer satisfaction, balancing marginal gains against marginal costs. It is not surprising that the optimal policy obtained fromthis approach suggests only small reductions in greenhouse gases.We show that a unidimensional metric of consumer's utility measured in dollar terms can only trivialize the problem of global climate change.     

灾害经济学中的减灾投入与成本问题

本文将经济学中的成本概念延伸至灾害学领域,构建出灾害成本的概念,并在该概念基础之上,建立了最优灾害成本经济模型,通过该模型探讨了防灾减灾的合理资金投入.     

重大项目消防投资的经济性评价

本文从经济学的角度出发,运用技术经济分析的原理和方法提出了重大项目生命周期内消防投资的经济学评价方法,包括成本和效益的计量、最优安全度的确定、项目可行性评价与选优等方面,目的在于为选择合理的方案提供理论指导,为制定正确的安全对策提供经济依据.     

引入火灾保险后消防投资经济性的评价模型

在西方发达国家,业主为减轻火灾发生后的实际损失,在火灾发生之前会主动采取火灾风险管理措施,而火灾保险是其中的重要部分,这也是我国今后火灾风险管理的发展方向之一. 通过购买火灾保险,业主将火灾损失的一部分或全部转移到保险公司,但业主需每年向保险公司交纳一定数额的保险费.购买火灾保险之后,消防投资经济性的评价模型会发生一些改变.本文基于经济性学的基本理论和方法,对这些新模型进行了较为全面的研究,为投资者做出科学合理的决策提供指导和帮助.     

Valuing uncertain asset cash flows when there are no options: A real options approach

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to quantify the additional asset value arising from flexible asset management. However, these two valuation methods differ on a more fundamental level: their approach to determining the effects of cash flow uncertainty on asset value. Real option valuation adjusts for risk within the cash flow components while the DCF method discounts for risk at the aggregate net cash flow. This seemingly small difference allows the real option method to differentiate assets according to their unique risk characteristics, while the conventional DCF approach cannot.This paper presents an overview of the real options and conventional DCF frameworks for valuing uncertain cash flows. To emphasize the approaches' different treatment of risk we assume an absence of managerial flexibility. Using simple algebra, this paper demonstrates that the traditional DCF method fails to adequately discount net cash flow risk, no matter what discount rate is used. Finally, in a stylized mining example we show that DCF rules would lead a developer to forego $24.5 million in value creation, at a profitability index of 1.49, by making a poor investment decision.     

ACHIEVING URBAN WATER CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Increasing costs and competition for water have resulted in pressure to manage urban water demand through conservation programs. Metering, pricing, devices, restrictions, building code changes, and horticultural practices have all been effective in reducing average residential water use. Some conservation means are specifically aimed at reducing peak demands but these usually reduce average usage as well. Combined programs of conservation can be expected to reduce urban demand by as much as 25–30 percent over the long term. Restrictions can reduce water usage on the short term even further. The success of conservation programs is as dependent on the effectiveness of public education and information dissemination as on the conservation practices themselves.     

INVESTOR OWNED VS. PUBLICLY OWNED WATER AGENCIES: AN EVALUATION OF THE PROPERTY RIGHTS THEORY OF THE FIRM1

ABSTRACT: The property rights theory of the firm is evaluated by comparing the cost structures of a sample of water agencies under two alternative modes of ownership - public and investor owned. On the basis of the sample, investor owned water agencies appear to have lower cost structures.     

A MODEL FOR ACHIEVING CONSISTENCY FOR COST SHARING IN WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Three basic principles of responsibility have influenced the Federal/non-Federal cost sharing rates for water resources programs (1) full payment by beneficiaries (2) exclusive Federal assumption of costs and (3) joint Federal/non-Federal sharing. The efforts to determine appropriate cost sharing rates have resulted in several hundred complex arrangements involving contributions, user charges and direct sales based on many variations of payment terms. This basic present value model was developed to determine the non-Federal cost shares which are expected to be paid for 32 different functional purposes emanating from Federal water resources programs and projects for both implementation and OMR stages. The model introduces the concept of a composite (implementation plus OMR) cost share as a focus developing appropriate cost sharing rates for the private, public and mixed outputs produced through public water resources investments. The model can be used as a focus for policy decisions on cost sharing which seek to achieve consistent and equitable cost shares for purposes provided while maintaining an efficient allocation of resources within water programs.     

COST FUNCTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL GROUND WATER DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT Cost functions are determined which will allow compensation to existing users of ground water when new users require rights. These functions are dependent on the additional energy cost to existing users. The costs produced by these functions can be significant when large quantities of water are required.