全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

为定量评估全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温的关系,采用空间自相关分析与空间联立方程组模型,基于1度、2度与3度空间分辨率的全球二氧化碳浓度,碳排放与近地面气温等格点数据,揭示了2003—2015年全球二氧化碳浓度的空间分布聚集特征并估计了碳排放对升温的影响系数。结果发现：二氧化碳浓度在空间上表现为北半球高浓度值聚集与南半球低浓度值聚集的分布型。利用二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布的参数条件对碳排放与升温影响的估计结果表明,代入二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布这一参数会小幅拉低碳排放对升温影响的估计结果。研究表明,全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布是当前评估碳排放升温影响亟待引入的参数;同时由于估计结果的空间尺度效应的存在,相关参数的空间范围与分辨率的选择也需要关注。     

Injury outcomes and costs for cross-median and median barrier crashes

Introduction

The objective of this research was to quantify the injury outcomes and develop reliable and comprehensive injury costs for cross-median crashes (CMC) and median barrier crashes (MBC).

Method

A three-step methodology was developed to quantify the crash costs for each crash severity and type. All CMC and MBC between 2001 and 2007 in Wisconsin were identified and used in this analysis. The Wisconsin CODES database provided comprehensive injury costs based on the injury types and severities suffered by participants in study crashes.

Results

As expected, multi-vehicle CMC result in more total injuries and more severe injuries than single-vehicle CMC. Injury costs for the same injury level on KABCO scale are different for different crash types. Injury costs for concrete MBC are 33% to 50% less than those of multi-vehicle CMC, while the injury costs of concrete MBC for lower severities (B and C) are similar to those of single-vehicle CMC for the same severities; but for incapacitating injuries the costs are 30% less. As expected, concrete MBC result in lower severities than CMC. The costs, by crash severity, vary significantly between different crash types. Concrete median barrier injury crashes are roughly 20% of multi-vehicle CMC costs and 50% of single-vehicle CMC costs.

Conclusions

Results indicate that using one set of crash costs for all crash types biases any evaluation. Therefore, it is recommended that crash-type-specific costs be used in applications such as development of median barrier warrant where specific types of crashes are considered (CMC and MBC).

Impact on industry

Using crash specific costs can lead to a more realistic benefit-cost analysis and enable better decision-making.     

中国纸业水污染控制费用模型研究

在造纸行业减排指标高、减排任务重的背景下,分析了中国造纸行业水污染控制现状以及现有的处理工艺技术应用状况和发展趋势,并提出了由于历史欠账多、技术水平低和经济体系不完善等原因引起的造纸行业水污染控制问题,在此基础上系统总结现有的造纸行业水污染控制费用模型,从研究对象、模型形式、构建方法、参数选择等方面进行了分析和评价,最后提出造纸行业水污染控制费用模型研究方向。     

基于碳减排成本的我国省域碳补偿机制

合理界定碳排放责任,开展省域间碳补偿是促进区域协同减排的重要途径.基于2017年多区域投入产出表,使用增加值贸易分解方法对各省市碳排放进行了分解,测算了省域间的隐含碳流动,并设计了基于减排成本的差异化碳补偿机制,为我国开展横向碳补偿提供了参考.结果表明：(1)省内最终需求引致碳排放占比53.56%、省外最终需求引致碳排放占比32.49%,省域间隐含碳流动显著存在;(2)隐含碳总体呈现出从北部、中部地区向京津地区和东南沿海地区转移的显著流动特征;(3)生产者、消费者和责任共担视角下各省市的碳排放总量相等,其中责任共担的分配思路体现了“受益原则”.(4)省域间碳减排成本存在差异,碳减排成本低的地区直接碳排放量高,产业以重工业为主,碳减排成本高的地区直接碳排放量低,产业以高新技术产业和服务业为主.(5)基于减碳成本各省市需支付(接受)的补偿金额不等,其中,广东需支付的补偿金额最高,内蒙古的受偿金额最高.     

Personal injury recovery cost of pedestrian–vehicle collisions in New South Wales,Australia

Background: There is a need for routine estimates of injury recovery costs from pedestrian collisions using hospital separation records for economic evaluations.

Objective: To estimate the cost of injury recovery following pedestrian–vehicle collisions using the personal injury recover cost (PIRC) equation using key demographic and injury characteristics.

Method: An estimation of the costs of on-road pedestrian–vehicle collisions involving individuals who were injured and hospitalized in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, from 2002 to 2011 using the PIRC equation. The PIRC estimates individual injury recovery costs and does not include costs associated with property damage, vehicle repair, or rescue services. Individual recovery costs associated with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) were estimated. The injured individual's mean, median, and total injury recovery costs are described for key demographic, injury, and crash characteristics.

Results: There were 9,781 pedestrians who were injured, costing an estimated total of $2.4 billion in personal injury recovery costs, an annual cost of $243 million. Males had a total injury recovery cost 1.7 times higher than females. The median injury recovery cost decreased with increasing age. TBI ($248,491) and spinal cord and vertebral column injuries ($264,103) had the highest median injury recovery costs for the body region of the most severe injury. TBI accounted for 22.6% of the total injury recovery costs for the most severe injury sustained. Just over one third of pedestrians sustained 4 or more injuries, with a median cost of $243,992, which was 1.6 times higher than the cost for a pedestrian who sustained a single injury ($153,682).

Conclusions: Personal injury recovery costs following pedestrian–vehicle collisions where a pedestrian is injured are substantial in NSW. The PIRC equation enables the economic cost burden of road traffic injury to be calculated using hospital separation data. The PIRC enables comprehensive personal injury recovery costs to be estimated and would aid in economic evaluations of preventive strategies in road safety.     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

LCC法在Epson公司环境经营管理中的实践分析

Epson公司在零件采购、材料的采用、运输、用户使用阶段,以及回收再生方面的商品的整个生命周期中,考虑减少产品对环境的负荷,并在产品全部生命周期（LCC）中应该实施的目标的基础上,构筑并实施了环境经营理念。其成功做法值得很多企业借鉴。     

Achieving air pollutant emission reduction targets with minimum abatement costs: An enterprise-level allocation method with constraints of fairness and feasibility

• Quantification of efficiency and fairness of abatement allocation are optimized. • Allocation results are refined to the different abatement measures of enterprises. • Optimized allocation results reduce abatement costs and tap the abatement space. • Abatement suggestions are given to enterprises with different abatement quotas. For achieving air pollutant emission reduction targets, total pollutant amount control is being continuously promoted in China. However, the traditional pattern of pollutant emission reduction allocation regardless of economic cost often results in unreasonable emission reduction pathways, and industrial enterprises as the main implementers have to pay excessively high costs. Therefore, this study adopted economic efficiency as its main consideration, used specific emission reduction measures (ERMs) of industrial enterprises as minimum allocation units, and constructed an enterprise-level pollutant emission reduction allocation (EPERA) model with minimization of the total abatement cost (TAC) as the objective function, and fairness and feasibility as constraints for emission reduction allocation. Taking City M in China as an example, the EPERA model was used to construct a Pareto optimal frontier and obtain the optimal trade-off result. Results showed that under basic and strict emission reduction regulations, the TAC of the optimal trade-off point was reduced by 46.40% and 45.77%, respectively, in comparison with that achieved when only considering fairness, and the Gini coefficient was 0.26 and 0.31, respectively. The abatement target was attained with controllable cost and relatively fair and reasonable allocation. In addition, enterprises allocated different emission reduction quotas under different ERMs had specific characteristics that required targeted optimization of technology and equipment to enable them to achieve optimal emission reduction effects for the same abatement cost.     

How effective are current household recycling policies? Results from a national survey of U.S. households

This paper analyzes a unique dataset collected during a 2006 national survey of U.S. households to explore the effectiveness of common household recycling policies for metals, glass, and plastics: curbside recycling, drop-off recycling, deposit–refund systems (bottle bills), and marginal pricing for household waste. After estimating either generalized ordered logit or multinomial logit models, we find that the most important determinants of household recycling are people's attitudes toward recycling. Our results also suggest that omitting internal variables (perceived recycling obstacles and benefits as well as moral considerations) may bias policy coefficients. Socio-economic variables are typically not statistically significant, with the exceptions of young adults and of African Americans who tend to recycle less than others. Policies with the largest odds ratios are curbside recycling (which is further strengthened if recycling is mandatory), followed by the presence of drop-off collection centers nearby. Bottle bills are also statistically significant but their odds ratios are smaller, possibly because refunds are relatively small and typically do not change for years. Finally, marginal pricing appears to have a limited impact on recycling. These results suggest avenues for improving household recycling at a time when recycling rates appear to be plateauing.     

典型优化目标函数下源参数反演性能对比研究

基于外场实验数据,从反演高估率、准确性、稳定性角度系统评估了8种典型目标函数在不同未知源参数反演情形下的反演性能差异.研究发现,不同目标函数反演性能差异显著.仅反演单参数源强时（Q）,对数变换目标函数高估率最大（79.4%）,偏差平方和目标函数准确性最高（P_ARD<50%=82.3%,ARD=（35.3±9.1）%）,目标函数稳定性无明显差异（CV<0.01）.三参数反演（Q,x,y）时,标准化均方根误差目标函数源强高估率最大（98.5%）,对数变换目标函数准确性、稳定性最高（P_ARD<50%=91.1%,ARD=（48.4±9.8）%;CV=0.01）;位置方面,偏差平方和目标函数准确性最高（AD=（36.12±11.39） m）,对数变换目标函数稳定性最强（CV=0.0018）.四参数反演（Q,x,y,z）时,标准化均方根误差目标函数源强高估率最大（98.5%）,对数变换目标函数准确性、稳定性最优（P_ARD<50%=61.7%,ARD=（55.2±16.5）%;CV=0.03）;位置方面,相关系数总体表现最优（AD=（34.37±10.72） m;CV=0.011）.整体上,随反演参数变化,对数变换目标函数源强反演性能最稳定.