北京城市灾害及新世纪安全战略

在归纳分析北京城市灾害源的基础上 ,研究了北京城市综合减灾战略规划的指导思想、基本原则及技术路线。重点论述了城市科学减灾的研究模式及方法     

干旱、农业旱灾与农户旱灾脆弱性分析——以邢台县典型农户为例

从微观农户角度分析了干旱、农业旱灾和农户旱灾脆弱性的成因。文章认为,自然降水不足或与作物需求匹配不均是造成农业干旱的动力,农户对干旱的应付能力不足是导致干旱成灾的原因。这种应付能力既受区域水资源可利用量的限制,也与农户的作物种植结构、灌溉支付能力、风险认识和对农业的依赖程度有关。农户旱灾脆弱性既与农业干旱有关,又受到人均资源和收入、种植和消费结构、生态环境质量、政策、市场价格等多重因素的作用。最脆     

物元理论在区域减灾中的应用

物元分析是解决矛盾问题的规律和方法,是系统科学,思维科学和数学的交叉学科,本文通过具体的事例分析说明自然灾害研究具有发散性,可扩性,相关性的共轭性的特点,鉴于自然灾害的特性,提出了减灾工作应在传统理论研究的基础上,应用物元理论采用可拓学的方法。     

基于信息扩散理论的地震风险评估

利用基于信息扩散理论的风险评估方法 ,对地震灾害进行了风险分析。该方法简单易行 ,分析结果意义清楚 ,对防灾抗灾具有一定的指导作用。     

Information technologies and the sharing of disaster knowledge: the critical role of professional culture

A comparative survey of a diverse sample of 96 US and Italian emergency management agencies shows that the diffusion of new information technologies (IT) has transformed disaster communications. Although these technologies permit access to and the dissemination of massive amounts of disaster information with unprecedented speed and efficiency, barriers rooted in the various professional cultures still hinder the sharing of disaster knowledge. To be effective the available IT must be attuned to the unique settings and professional cultures of the local emergency management communities. Findings show that available technology, context, professional culture and interaction are key factors that affect the knowledge transfer process. Cultural filters appear to influence emergency managers' perceptions of their own professional roles, their vision of the applicability of technology to social issues, and their perspective on the transferability of disaster knowledge. Four cultural approaches to the application of IT to disaster communications are defined: technocentric; geographic,; anthropocentric; and ecocentric.     

Children and the Sphere standard on mental and social aspects of health

Most of the world's children live in resource-poor countries where people are at a relatively high risk of exposure to catastrophic situations arising from conflict and natural disasters.(6) Given the potential social, psychological and psychiatric consequences of exposure to disaster, mental health and psychosocial support programmes are increasingly part of humanitarian aid. A minimum standard on mental and social aspects of health is included in the recently revised Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response (Sphere Handbook) (Sphere Project, 2004). Most recommendations for mental health and psychosocial interventions in guidance documents are based on expert opinion rather than research. Consequently, interventions are being implemented without full understanding of their potential benefit or harm. This paper offers a child-focused review of the evidence for each of the interventions described as indicators for the Sphere standard on mental and social aspects of health. It suggests some, but limited, support for each of them. However, the evidence base needs substantial strengthening.     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

防灾减灾：西海固地区可持续发展的基础

根据调查和有关资料,本文研究了西海固地区自然灾害的基本特征,分析了自然灾害对可持续发展的影响和制约作用,探讨了防治自然灾害,实现可持续发展的基本对策。     

抗灾减灾效益估计方法探讨

从综合角度阐述减灾效益的概念,进而以减灾效益内容为基础,提出了估计减灾效益的方法。     

发展中国家灾害经济的特点、成因及对策

发展中国家人口众多,经济技术落后,酱稀缺,抗灾能力低,防灾意识不强,加多不合理经济活动对环境的过度干预以及发达国家转嫁环境灾害和社会危机,致使发展中国家产生灾害的潜在因素日益增加,灾害的成灾损失越来越严重,灾害对经济发展的影响与经济因素对灾害的影响都在日益加深,形成恶性循环。本文从经济学角度提出了防灾减灾就采取的主要对策。