川藏铁路四川段沿线诱发地质灾害降水阈值研究

利用2009—2019年川藏铁路沿线四川段地质灾害数据、国家气象中心逐小时降水量资料,统计了地质灾害与降水的关系,发现研究区89%的滑坡灾害和96.6%的泥石流均发生在汛期,且地质灾害高发路段位于青衣江暴雨区,与四川地区降水时空分布特征相吻合。分析雨型、降雨强度、前期降雨等因子对地质灾害的影响,发现快速激发,中速激发和慢速激发的地质灾害分别约占33.3%、25.9%、40.8%,表明降雨历时并不是影响地质灾害发生的最直接因子,前期降雨的作用不可忽视;结合环境因子对地质灾害进行了分区,基于降雨历时-雨强(I-D)预报模型建立了川藏铁路沿线四川段引发地质灾害的降水阈值分布。利用该降水阈值的分布特征,检验了2019年引发地质灾害的降水量,发现阈值雨量的判别方法较为科学,具有较强的参考价值。     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

海洋大气环境下磷钒系耐候钢腐蚀数据分析

本文通过大气环境暴露试验,研究了在青岛海洋大气环境中暴露10年5周期的4种磷钒系耐候钢的腐蚀规律。结果表明,四种耐候钢的腐蚀速率的关系为:10CrPV10CuPV10MoPV08PV,耐侯钢的耐蚀性与添加元素类别和添加量相关。平均腐蚀深度数据拟合结果表明,A值大小顺序为:10CrPV10CuPV10 MoPV08PV,而n值的顺序是:10CuPV10CrPV10MoPV08PV。     

Ecological Survey of Coastal I Water Adjacent to Nuclear Power I Plants in Taiwan

A total of six nuclear reactors installed in three power plants, two along the northern and one along the southern coasts of Taiwan, started their operations one after another since October 1977. Owing to the large quantities of cooling water intake into and discharge from the plants, some environmental factors such as water temperature, chlorine, environmental radioactivity and nearshore currents may be significantly changed. Variations of these abiotic environmental factors may influence the biological activities in the ecosystem, particularly doing some kinds of damage to marine biological resources. Therefore, the possible environmental impact upon the biological systems including the fishery resources along the northern and southern coasts of Taiwan should be studied before and during the plant operation.

We have started the long-term programmes of biological, chemical and hydro-graphical surveys of the nuclear power plant sites on both northern (since July 1974) and southern (since July 1979) coasts of Taiwan. the survey items include ocean currents, physical and chemical properties of sea water, primary productivity, specific compositions and interspecific relationships among phyto- and zooplankton, algae, invertebrates, corals, and fishes; and radionuclides in water and biological specimens, and fishery statistics. in general, except for a few events, the operations of the six units of nuclear power plants have not produced detectable effects on the marine ecosystem. Radio activity levels and radionuclides in water and the biological specimens remained the same as background levels throughout the survey period. However, the events of coral bleaching and fish body anomalies caused by thermal discharges were observed respectively along the outlets of third and second Nuclear Power Plants. the purposes of this paper are to report and evaluate these two events during the operations of nuclear power plants in Taiwan.     

Environmental disasters,migration and displacement. Insights and developments from L’Aquila's case

This paper analyses the environmentally-induced migration and displacement resulting from L’Aquila's earthquake of 2009. After a general critical overview of the social science literature on this topic, the main changes in the migration system are analysed looking at the roots and trajectories of the forced human displacement that followed the earthquake, and reflecting on the challenges related to post-earthquake demographic movements and post-disaster resettlement. Through the analysis of the pre disaster (2002–2008) and recovery period (2009–2013) data, this paper offers a general model of how environmental disaster might affect migration and displacement and suggests the main challenges related to the post-disaster governance. Relying on ISTAT data on internal migration in Italy this paper argues that the post-seismic recovery period is characterized by a strong increase of out-flows from L’Aquila to other provinces, within the Abruzzo region and outside it, in particular toward the closest regions (Latium, Campania).     

Current Status of Marine Protected Areas in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs), including no‐take marine reserves (MRs), play an important role in the conservation of marine biodiversity. We document the status of MPAs and MRs in Latin America and the Caribbean, where little has been reported on the scope of such protection. Our survey of protected area databases, published and unpublished literature, and Internet searches yielded information from 30 countries and 12 overseas territories. At present more than 700 MPAs have been established, covering more than 300,000 km² or 1.5% of the coastal and shelf waters. We report on the status of 3 categories of protection: MPAs (limited take throughout the area), MRs (no‐take throughout the area), and mixed‐use (a limited‐take MPA that contains an MR). The majority of protected areas in Latin America and the Caribbean are MPAs, which allow some or extensive extractive activities throughout the designated area. These 571 sites cover 51,505 km² or 0.3% of coastal and shelf waters. There are 98 MRs covering 16,862 km² or 0.1% of the coastal and shelf waters. Mixed‐use MPAs are the fewest in number (87), but cover the largest area (236,853 km², 1.2%). Across Latin America and the Caribbean, many biogeographic provinces are underrepresented in these protected areas. Large coastal regions remain unprotected, in particular, the southern Pacific and southern Atlantic coasts of South America. Our analysis reveals multiple opportunities to strengthen marine conservation in Latin America and the Caribbean by improving implementation, management, and enforcement of existing MPAs; adding new MPAs and MRs strategically to enhance connectivity and sustainability of existing protection; and establishing new networks of MPAs and MRs or combinations thereof to enhance protection where little currently exists.     

关于建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思

本文对建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思进行了初步的探讨,其中包括自然灾害评估指标系统;灾害评估的分类和程序;自然灾害评估的基础工作;自然灾害评估的主要手段;自然灾害评估系统的模式和灾害数据库的建立。     

陕西省1990年自然灾害和救灾工作回顾：兼谈1991年减灾对策

本文在回顾1990年陕西省灾情及救灾工作基础上,提出了强化政府在减灾中的职能,搞好灾情预测预报、及早制定防灾预案及灾前准备工作的减灾对策。     

减灾的经济和社会效益初探

本文概述了目前减灾的经济和社会效益研究概况,指出现阶段灾害社会和经济学研究方面的四大问题;探讨了减灾与经济、减灾与政治、减灾与社会发展等的关系。     

环境中的人为灾害

本文仅就环境保护中的大气、水质、噪声、土壤等几个主要方面酿成的人为灾害事例,谈及灾害原因,致灾损失及对策等。