Impacts of Marine Protected Areas on Fishing Communities

Abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a popular conservation strategy, but their impacts on human welfare are poorly understood. To inform future research and policy decisions, we reviewed the scientific literature to assess MPA impacts on five indicators of human welfare: food security, resource rights, employment, community organization, and income. Following MPA establishment, food security generally remained stable or increased in older and smaller MPAs. The ability of most fishing groups to govern MPA resources changed. Increased resource rights were positively correlated with MPA zoning and compliance with MPA regulations. Small sample sizes precluded statistical tests of the impacts of MPAs on employment, community organization, and income. Our results demonstrate that MPAs shape the social well‐being and political power of fishing communities; impacts (positive and negative) vary within and among social groups; and social impacts are correlated with some—but not all—commonly hypothesized explanatory factors. Accordingly, MPAs may represent a viable strategy for enhancing food security and empowering local communities, but current practices negatively affect at least a minority of fishers. To inform policy making, further research must better document and explain variation in the positive and negative social impacts of MPAs.     

论长江洪灾与可持续发展

本文分析了湖北等省份多年水灾资料，并对水灾的成因进行了研究，提出了根治水灾必须走可持续发展道路的建议     

Incorporation of Spatial and Economic Analyses of Human‐Use Data in the Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: Social, economic, and ecological criteria contribute to the successful design, implementation, and management of marine protected areas (MPAs). In the context of California's Marine Life Protection Act Initiative, we developed a set of methods for collecting, compiling, and analyzing data about the spatial extent and relative economic importance of commercial and recreational fishing. We interviewed 174 commercial fishers who represented the major fisheries in the initiative's north‐central coast region, which extends from Point Arena south to Pigeon Point. These fishers provided data that we used to map the extent of each of the fishing grounds, to weight the relative importance of areas within the grounds, to characterize the operating costs of each fishery, and to analyze the potential economic losses associated with proposed marine protected areas. A regional stakeholder group used the maps and impact analyses in conjunction with other data sets to iteratively identify economic and ecological trade‐offs in designations of different areas as MPAs at regional, port, and fishery extents. Their final proposed MPA network designated 20% of state waters as MPAs. Potential net economic loss ranged from 1.7% to 14.2% in the first round of network design and totaled 6.3% in the final round of design. This process is a case study in the application of spatial analysis to validate and integrate local stakeholder knowledge in marine planning.     

Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Abstract:  Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.     

突发性灾难重大事件后公众对心理服务的认知和需求

为分析突发性灾难重大事件发生后公众对心理服务的认知和需求现状,采用随机抽样的方法在全国范围内抽取458名群众作为被试,使用“突发性灾难重大事件后公众心理服务认知和需求”调查问卷进行调查。结果显示:①不同性别人群、不同年龄阶段人群对“突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务”的认知存在显著差异(X^2=9.82,p<0.05;X^2=33.99,p<0.05)。②不同年龄阶段的人群对民众开展心理服务的必要性态度存在显著差异(X^2=15.84,p<0.05)。不同文化程度人群、不同性别人群对突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务活动的参与意愿存在显著差异(X^2=7.20,p<0.05;X^2=6.78,p<0.05)。③不同文化程度人群对心理服务知识和技能需求存在显著差异(X^2=28.65,p<0.05),在接受心理服务场所的选择上也存在显著差异(X^2=16.44,p<0.05)。不同年龄阶段人群对接受心理服务场所的选择上存在显著差异(X^2=21.52,p<0.05)。分析结果显示:在遭受突发性灾难重大事件时,公众对心理服务的了解程度一般,但参与意愿和需求强烈,因此,国家和社会应加快社会心理服务体系的建设,促进公众的心理健康。     

基于熵权的防灾工程项目融资方式评价决策模型

对防灾工程项目融资方式的评价决策问题进行了讨论,分析了项目评价决策中的客观信息和评价决策者个人经验的主观信息,提出在量化打分的基础上整合为一个复合权重集,建立了基于熵权的防灾工程项目融资方式评价模型和方法。通过实例计算,结果表明该模型在融资方式的评价、优劣排序和选择方面具有较强的可行性和可操作性。     

Educational hazards? The politics of disaster risk education in Rio de Janeiro

Disaster education outcomes are highly dependent on the political context of that education. Based on a rich, in‐depth case study of the creation of community monitors in a landslide and flood‐prone city in southeast Brazil, this paper demonstrates how developmental and political environments add much additional nuance to existing theories of behaviourist and transformative education for disaster preparedness and mitigation. Beyond identifying the benefits of education, it argues that disaster risk reduction outcomes are reliant on governance frameworks that alter over time. The study reveals the political complexity associated with programme implementation and cites the perspectives of a number of participants. Disaster education is shown to be the necessary yet underappreciated twin of the militarised and technical approaches that dominate disaster response in Brazil. Understated, however, is education's situatedness: how it can become an arena of conflict between government and civil actors over matters of state and society in increasingly hazardous urbanisation settings in Latin America.     

The continued operation of businesses after an earthquake: a case study from Lushan County,China

This study performed a comparative analysis of changes in the operating status of initial surviving disaster‐stricken businesses and non‐disaster‐stricken businesses in Lushan County, China, after a devastating earthquake on 20 April 2013. It used a logistic regression model to explore the key factors associated with ‘post‐disaster continued business operation’ in the long term. Field data were collected from 1,078 businesses and questionnaire data from 263 small businesses between 2013 and 2017. The results indicate that a higher proportion of initial surviving disaster‐stricken businesses than non‐disaster‐stricken businesses managed to remain operational in each observation period. The continued operation of disaster‐stricken businesses after the earthquake was positively associated with the owner's age, previous disaster experience, pre‐disaster financial conditions, closure duration, and borrowing money from family or friends. A negative association was found with the size of the business. The findings serve as a vital reference for strategies to promote post‐disaster continued business operation.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

上海港区船舶防污漆中Irgarol 1051的环境风险评价

Irgarol 1051是一种常用于船舶防污漆的杀生活性物质。为了评价船舶防污漆杀生活性物质Irgarol 1051的海洋环境风险,根据ISO 13073-1的评价原则和程序,对其进行环境危害评价、环境暴露评价和风险表征。通过对公共数据库的文献检索获取数据,从理化性质、环境行为、生态毒性3个方面评价Irgarol 1051的环境危害。采用评估因子法计算Irgarol 1051的预测无效应浓度(PNEC)。采用质量守恒法计算Irgarol 1051在海水中的释放率,通过MAMPEC v3.0模型推导上海洋山深水港的集装箱船区、码头、航道等暴露场景的预测环境浓度(PEC)。经过比较上述暴露场景的风险商值(PEC/PNEC)发现,港口的海水相风险商值大于1,Irgarol 1051的环境风险需要关注。