河流渠化问题分析与对策研究

河流渠化是现代人类出于防洪排涝、污染治理和绿化美化等一己之目的对河流的改造活动.从生态系统的观点出发,对河流的纵向、横向、垂向与时序变化四个维度进行分析,提炼出中国北方健康中小河流的生态特征,分析了河流渠化造成的生态、经济和社会灾难,认识到生态灾难的根源在于人类中心主义的谬误.在此基础上,从生态修复的角度入手,提出遵循河流自身规律的河流渠化解决之道,在河流与人类和谐共处的前提下,改善其生态完整性和可持续性,建议开展广泛的接近自然的河流治理新模式.     

典型地铁火灾场景中烟气蔓延与控制研究

地铁是现代化的城市轨道交通工具,承担着越来越重要的大客流运输任务,是城市现代化程度的重要指标。随着城市地铁的迅速发展,作为人流密集的公众聚集场所且处于地下的空间,地铁灾害问题愈来愈引起人们的重视。近年来,地铁火灾成为火灾科学界研究的热点。本文针对地铁火灾的特点,设计特定情况下的地铁火灾场景,利用FDS模拟地铁车站的三维烟气流场,对地铁车站火灾烟气的蔓延情况及烟气控制系统对烟气的控制效果进行了研究,通过分析烟气蔓延的过程和特点,得出了无机械送排风或无挡烟装置难以保证人员从站台层向站厅层安全疏散,特别是当站台中部发生火灾时,只有机械送排风和挡烟设施配合使用才可以有效地控制烟气和温度的研究结论。旨在对有效防控地铁火灾和人员疏散的研究提供一定参考。     

The value of open ocean ecosystems: A case study for the Spanish exclusive economic zone

Valuing goods and services from open oceans provides arguments for the ocean's protection and plays an increasingly important role in debates on the use and management of natural resources. This paper identifies and estimates the monetary value of some of the most important goods and services provided by open oceans. The list of goods and services considered includes food production, raw materials, water supply, CO₂ regulation, bioremediation of waste, biomass and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, not only values associated with productive uses are quantified but also values assigned to other biological ecosystem services. This paper constitutes a first attempt in the open ocean literature at evaluating services such as water supply, biomass and biodiversity conservation. To obtain their monetary value, different techniques, some not applied before in this area, have been used depending on the ecosystem service to be evaluated. As a general criterion we use the concept of net value added (revenues obtained from the services less incurred costs). Our methodology is illustrated by estimating the monetary values of goods and services provided by the open ocean ecosystem of Spain as defined by its exclusive economic zone. The total economic value obtained measures the contribution of oceans to overall welfare and it may be an important instrument in managing open ocean ecosystems and developing environmental policies in the future.     

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.     

基于象限法和灰色关联法的水灾灾情等级评估

水灾严重威胁着人类的财产与生活,水灾灾情等级的合理评估可以为防灾、减灾以及备灾工作提供科学的依据。通过改进象限法的临界指标,并用灰色关联法进行约束,提出基于象限法和灰色关联法的灾情等级评估方法。首先应用象限法对中国(除港、澳、台地区)的水灾灾情按省进行分级,再应用灰色关联法计算出代表各地区灾情大小的关联度,最后用各省的关联度对象限法的分级结果进行微调,得到中国一些地区水灾灾情等级评估的最终结果。结果表明:湖北、湖南、安徽为大灾地区;四川等19个地区为中灾地区;甘肃、海南、青海和新疆为小灾地区;北京、上海、天津、宁夏、西藏为微灾地区。     

基于B样条曲线的GM(2,1)动态组合预测模型应用

突发事件具有较强的随机性,且在对某类突发事件的预测研究过程中,往往会出现研究数据样本少或数据缺失的情况。运用工程技术中3次B样条插值和GM(2,1)预测模型对这种情况进行分析、研究,建立基于3次B样条曲线的GM(2,1)动态组合预测模型,在高质量弥补数据缺失的同时,也使预测结果体现局部动态性和全局性的特点。运用该模型对广东省雷电灾害指数进行实证分析,结果显示,预测结果的等级误判率为11%,2010年的灾害指数等级预测区划分布结果与实际情况相吻合。     

Disaster coordination preparedness of soft-target organisations

This paper introduces a network‐enabled model to examine the disaster coordination preparedness of soft‐target organisations (STOs). Little attention is devoted to this matter in recent research. This study places emphasis on such organisations and the proposed model tests hypotheses related to network relation and coordination preparedness. It analyses the data set entitled ‘Preparedness of large retail malls to prevent and respond to terrorist attack, 2004′, which contains 120 completed surveys of security directors of retail malls in the United States. ¹ 1 See http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/TPDRC/studies/21140 .
The following questions form the basis of this study: ‘What do STOs need to be better prepared to respond to a disaster?’; ‘How does network relationship between STOs and emergency agencies affect the coordination preparedness of STOs for disaster recovery?’; and ‘Which centrality measure needs to be followed to measure network variables in order to analyse coordination preparedness?’ The results show that STOs with a high level of connectedness and strong ties to other emergency agencies are better prepared for disaster response.     

A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.