What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

IMPACT OF THERMAL STANDARDS ON POWER PLANT WATER CONSUMPTION1

Power plant water consumption (evaporative water loss) for various river temperature standards is presented for existing and proposed power plants located along the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers in the MAPP geographical area. Thermodynamic and economic models are combined to evaluate the cooling related water consumption at various river thermal standards. The existing thermal standards and a number of other hypothetical thermal regulations including the extreme cases of no thermal standards and no allowable heated discharges are examined to show the dependence on thermal standards of power production related water consumption. A critical appraisal of the cost of thermal standards in terms of water consumption is thereby possible so that subjective assessments of the standards can proceed with full knowledge of the tradeoffs involved between the “water costs” of power production and environmental enhancement.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

CHEAP POWER - AN EXPENSIVE FAILURE: HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN NEWFOUNDLAND1

ABSTRACT By creating the 459,000 kW Bay d'Espoir h.e.p. scheme, the Newfoundland government hoped that the consequent doubling of the island's electricity supply would not only eliminate a deficite situation but provide power for industrial development. These hopes have not been fulfilled, and only one company, producing elemental phosphorus, was attracted to the island by the government's ‘cheap power’ policy. In addition to the continuing power subidy, this company received considerable federal and provincial incentives by locating its plant in Newfoundland. To these direct financial costs have to be added the environmental destruction and deterioration stemming from the h.e.p. development and the haste with which its construction was undertaken, and the catastrophic pollution problem created by effluent from the phosphorus plant. The costs of the ‘cheap power’ policy have been, and continue to be, massive for Newfoundland, Canada's poorest province. Further, the policy has made little or no impact on the small job market and the very large unemployment problem.     

新时期土地市场建设中的几个问题

入世后,国际资本将快速进入我国,土地作为重要的经济资源将在很大程度上影响着我国经济的发展。为了使我国经济实现可持续发展,就必须加快土地市场建设,建立健全土地市场。根据我国目前土地市场的建设情况,探讨了土地市场建设中容易出现的问题及其解决对策。     

我国地热资源的开发战略

总结了我国地热资源的利用和管理状况,提出了"政策统一、市场运作、合理利用、可持续发展"的地热资源开发战略,并对战略内容进行了具体阐述.     

荆山生态旅游区客源市场现状分析

旅游者是旅游活动的主体,旅游客源是旅游业赖以生存和发展的关键.根据课题组2002年4月在南漳、保康、谷城所作的抽样问卷调查，对荆山生态旅游区旅游客源市场的地域结构、旅游者背景及行为特征进行了分析，并在此基础上提出了旅游客源市场的开发对策.     

九华山国内客源市场空间结构与出游行为研究

在实地调查的基础上，分析了九华山国内客源市场空间结构及其演变特征，得出国内客源市场集中程度降低、客源吸引力不断增强、波浪式推进的演变结论，并探讨了九华山旅游行为空间模式主要以单一目的地旅游模式和区域旅游模式为主，根据旅游意向调查结果显示，九华山与黄山在客源市场方面具有较强的互补性。     

我国温泉旅游资源的开发与利用

我国温泉旅游资源丰富,目前已经形成了一批成熟的温泉旅游度假区,但是当前我国对温泉旅游资源的稀缺性和脆弱性认识不足,温泉旅游项目建设存在贵族化、劣势产品"搭便车"趋向、旅游功能单一等问题.提出充分重视温泉旅游资源的价值,根据市场状况合理选择开发模式,对本地洗浴客人和外来公务游客作重点营销,保持温泉旅游产品的价格优势,开发多元化旅游产品.     

天柱山国内旅游市场空间结构分析与优化

从旅游客源和客流两方面分析了天柱山国内旅游市场的空间结构特征及其演化:2002年与1996年相比,天柱山国内旅游客源市场有扩散趋势,但仍呈较强的集中性,客源吸引半径小幅上升,呈明显的近程性;旅游客流在景区空间呈现多中心辐射扩散的分布点.在此基础上,划分了天柱山国内旅游市场空间圈层结构,对不同的圈层结构提出了不同的经营策略,以达到优化市场空间结构的目的.