云南省土壤环境质量分析系统设计与实现

土壤是人类赖以生存的基本要素之一,然而随着我国经济社会的发展,土壤环境污染日益严重,已威胁到各种陆生动植物的生态平衡。为落实环保部《关于加强土壤污染防治工作的意见》要求,2006年云南省土壤污染调查全面启动。系统运用Microsoft Visual Basic作为开发语言,SQL Server作为数据库,Arc GIS作为地图开发工具,来完成数据的导入和校验,统计、评价和对比的分析与查询,以及各类统计图表的自动生成。系统开发解决了庞大数据的管理与分析问题,对数据进行了生动的图表化表示并通过数据自动更新机制,简化了数据的管理工作,提高了《云南省土壤环境质量报告》的编制效率,对各级管理部门的决策工作具有较大的辅助意义。     

Bridging information domains to improve ecological understanding of biological invasions in a marine ecosystem

We devised a practical method for integrating information on 2 marine invasive species using 3 different approaches: standardized ecological monitoring, online-reporting databases, and surveys of anglers and crabbers. Focusing on 2 recently introduced species with different characteristics, the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) and Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), in the Hudson-Raritan watershed of New York and New Jersey, we used sensitivity analyses to explore the relative contribution of each information source to knowledge of species abundance and distribution. All 3 information sources contributed something unique to understanding abundance and distribution of the introduced crabs. Online and survey data on Asian shore crabs significantly affected predictions of abundance, whereas monitoring data did not. When survey data were omitted, abundance estimates were unchanged over time, but when they were included, the model predicted an increased abundance in 2012. All 3 data sets for the Asian shore crab significantly affected estimates of species coverage; surveys had the biggest influence, increasing range size by 4097.25 km². For the catadromous Chinese mitten crab, ecological monitoring data collected in freshwater shortly after the original sighting significantly shaped model estimates for abundance and documented the establishment phase of the mitten crab in an area outside the spatial scope of the surveyed resource users. However, the survey data significantly enlarged mitten crab range-size estimates by 6498.01 km². By demonstrating that data integration produced an image of the invasion process that would not have emerged had we used any 1 method individually, model results provide evidence for the advantages of an interdisciplinary approach.     

Using a novel data linkage approach to investigate potential reductions in motor vehicle crash severity – An evaluation of strategic highway safety plan emphasis areas

Introduction: With the significant number of motor-vehicle fatalities occurring on the nation’s roadways in recent years, there exists a need to integrate a more complete range of data sources, available at a regional or statewide level, to effectively evaluate existing safety concerns and quantify their impacts. Crash data alone does not provide ample crash-associated citation, injury, and roadway characteristics; therefore, a more cohesive dataset is required to accurately and completely analyze the true impacts of motor-vehicle crashes. Previously developed strategies linked crash data with citation and roadway inventory data to enhance the identification and optimization of highway safety strategies. Method: The main objective of this research focused on developing a new deterministic linkage between crash and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data, by utilizing the Massachusetts Crash Data System (CDS) and the Massachusetts Ambulance Trip Record Information System (MATRIS). Results: After several iterations of match criterion, the validated linkage successfully matched 58.3% of MATRIS records (containing an Injury Cause of Motor Vehicle Crash) to a CDS person record (55011 linked pairs, between 2014 and 2016). The data linkage provided significant insight into injury trends in several highway safety emphasis areas such as roadway departure, speeding-related, and distraction-affected crashes. The findings from this research are twofold: (1) an established process for linking previously separate data sets, and (2) a mechanism for analysis that provides decision-makers and safety professionals with a better measure of crash outcomes.     

Development of inherent safety and health index for formulated product design

The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method.     

历史灾害资料在当前减灾工作中大有作为：—以1862年珠江三角洲的风暴潮为例

本文从历史资料中分析出1862年7月27日珠江三角洲的特大风暴潮,潮位可能高达7.6～8.5m,远远超出应用15a观测资料外推的1000a一遇潮位2.86～5.11m,证明历史灾害资料在当前减灾工作中可发挥重大作用。     

The environmental audit. II. Application to stream network design

The planning and execution of water quality management programs requires careful collection and analysis of data coupled with a systematic review and analysis of programmatic success. The environmental audit is a tool which facilitates improved water quality planning and management. This article demonstrates the utility of the environmental audit by reviewing portions of a comprehensive review of the water quality management program for the state of Idaho. The audit is a tool which forces careful design of a sampling program before data are collected. In the audit approach, program objectives are clearly stated prior to initiation of sampling. Stated objectives are also evaluated regularly to identify tension points, that is, conflicts between expectations and reality. In the example taken from Idaho, a management review team followed a directive to redesign the water quality monitoring program. We present a summary of the redesign as proposed by that team, to illustrate the results of a typical review of monitoring programs. That summary is followed by an example of how the proposed program would differ if the audit approach had been used. The two approaches offered both coincident and conflicting recommendations. Management review team and audit recommendations for lake sampling programs were similar even though a different process was used to develop the recommendations. The most striking contrast between the two results lies in the review team's approach to the problem. The directives followed, and the team's responses, concentrate on tools, such as increasing biological monitoring or reliance on monthly BWMP stations. In contrast, the audit results stress addressing management questions for which clear objectives have been stated, depending on specific tools only as needed to meet stated objectives. Although the audit does integrate externalities in its structure, it is little affected by economic or political influences. A major strength of the audit approach is its ability to provide defensible data for management decision making.     

串行接口控制技术研究及应用

本文研究在VB6．0中如何通过添加ActiveX控件MSComm，实现计算机与称重仪通过串行端口进行数据传送，为应用管理程序提供数据源。     

海洋信息系统图件的输入与数字化仪的连接

本文论述了各类海洋信息系统建设过程中空间数据的输入方法，比较了各种数字化方式的优缺点，并以数字化仪数字化作为空间数据的输入方式，就常见的ＧＩＳ软件ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ为例，对数字化仪参数的设置、数字化仪数据格式与ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ软件数据格式的匹配，连接状况测试等问题具体地介绍了实际解决问题的方案，为常见的数字化仪与ＧＩＳ软件连接问题提供了一个可借鉴的范例，同时为海洋信息系统空间信息的建立奠定了基础。     

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.