A Watershed-based Cumulative Risk Impact Analysis: Environmental Vulnerability and Impact Criteria

Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have received much attention in recent years. As a result, a watershed-based screening tool, the Cumulative Risk Index Analysis (CRIA), was developed to assess the cumulative impacts of multiple CAFO facilities in a watershedsubunit. The CRIA formula calculates an index number based on: 1) the area of one or more facilities compared to the area of the watershed subunit, 2) the average of the environmental vulnerability criteria, and 3) the average of the industry-specific impact criteria. Each vulnerability or impact criterion is ranked on a 1 to 5 scale, with a low rank indicating low environmental vulnerability or impact and a high rank indicating high environmental vulnerability or impact. The individual criterion ranks, as well as the total CRIA score, can be used to focus the environmental analysis and facilitate discussions with industry, public, and other stakeholders in the Agency decision-making process.     

An investigation of methods for enriching trophoblast from maternal blood

Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method.     

Incremental cost-effectiveness of incorporating oestriol evaluation in down syndrome screening programmes

As screening for Down syndrome becomes increasingly sophisticated, it is important to evaluate the newer technologies in terms of their cost-effectiveness. One recent addition to Down syndrome screening programmes is maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), especially when used in conjunction with maternal serum α-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin. Using assumptions used in a California proposal to justify an expanded screening programme for Down syndrome, we calculated both the average and the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃. Using the base case assumptions, including an $8 fee for the uE₃, the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃ to the proposed California programme is $119 100 per case detected, a value that compares favourably with other Down syndrome screening programmes. The sensitivity analysis supports this conclusion over a wide range of assumptions. However, because of the uncertainty with some key data, it is still too early to fully support the inclusion of uE₃ in Down syndrome screening programmes.     

Attitudes of women of childbearing age towards prenatal diagnosis in Southeastern France

The objective of this study was to explore women's attitudes towards prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 and to examine some of the factors possibly responsible for these attitudes before implementing in real practice serological screening of pregnant women at risk for trisomy 21. We carried out a telephone survey on a representative sample of women who had recently had a normal livebirth delivery in the Marseille district in 1990. The participation rate was 80 per cent and the average age of the mothers was 28-9 years. Among the 514 women interviewed, 78 per cent stated that they would ask for an amniocentesis for a 1 per cent risk of trisomy 21 at their next pregnancy. When adjusting for confounding factors, the decision to have or not to have an amniocentesis was found to depend not only on the women's attitude towards induced abortion, but also on their understanding of the risk involved and on the social context (knowing a handicapped child, discussion with the father). It also depended on the women's age and on what they knew about amniocentesis from the medical point of view. The risk of miscarriage can influence a woman's choice but this objection was not found to affect the women's decisions significantly in our survey. The data showed the existence of a high potential demand for fetal karyotyping.     

Thyroid antibodies are not a risk factor for pregnancies with down syndrome

The observation that thyroid disease is frequent in mothers of children with Down syndrome (DS) has suggested that maternal thyroid antibodies could be a factor predisposing to trisomy 21 in their offspring. In this study, the incidences of thyroglobulin (Tg) and thyroid peroxidase (TPO) antibodies were analysed with a sensitive solid-phase immunosorbent radioassay in sera from 29 mothers giving birth to children with trisomy 21 and 87 control mothers. The serum samples were collected at delivery. There was no statistical difference regarding the proportion of thyroid antibodies (against Tg and/or TPO) in the two groups. Thyroid antibodies were detected in 6/29 (20.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and in 23/87 (26.4 per cent) of the control mothers. Among the women with thyroid antibodies, 4/6 (66.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and 12/23 (52 per cent) of the control mothers had antibodies against both Tg and TPO. There was no increase in the relative risk of having a child with DS if the titre of either Tg or TPO antibodies or both were positive, i.e. ≥ 1/5. The results indicate that the presence of thyroid antibodies in the serum of a pregnant woman has no prognostic value for the birth of an infant with DS.     

Ultrasonography in pregnancy and fetal abnormalities: Screening or diagnostic test? IPIMC 1986–1990 register data

The aim of the present study was to assess the sensitivity of ultrasound diagnosis used as a screening test in detecting major congenital anomalies in the prenatal period in a large nation-based multicentre setting. Data from the IPIMC register were collected in the period 1986–1990. One hundred and thirty-five hospitals, located in 17 out of the 20 regions in Italy, participated in the register. Study cases were 3479 infants with major congenital anomalies diagnosed at birth or in the first week of life. Subjects with chromosomal anomalies or multiple defects were excluded. The sensitivity of ultrasound prenatal diagnosis was 49.5 per cent for central nervous system anomalies, 3.8 per cent for congenital heart diseases, 17.1 per cent for gastrointestinal tract defects, 46.6 per cent for abdominal wall defects, 74.8 per cent for urinary tract anomalies, and 22.9 per cent for skeletal abnormalities. The detection rate for diaphragmatic hernia was 24.2 per cent. Overall, only 18 per cent of the defects diagnosed in utero were detected before 24 weeks' gestation. The sensitivity of prenatal diagnosis was 30.1 and 19.0 per cent in the northern, central, and southern regions, respectively. In light of its low sensitivity, ultrasonography as a screening test in the general population should be abandoned, although some improvement in its performance should be expected following adequate training of the ultrasound staff and the use of good technical equipment.     

Carrier screening for cystic fibrosis

A number of different models of CF carrier screening have now been tested in pilot trials. Apart from opportunistic and cascade testing (which are strictly speaking not true forms of screening), the major programmes have been directed either to young adults in primary care or to pregnant women in antenatal clinics. Only in the latter form of screening has sufficient data been collected to allow conclusions to be reached on the optimum mode of delivery. It seems very probable that when CF carrier screening passes into routine service, it will be the antenatal couple model that is used.     

Serum alpha-fetoprotein and neural tube defects in the first trimester of pregnancy

As part of the Medical Research Council randomized trial of vitamin supplementation in the prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs), maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was available for 19 NTD pregnancies. Each of these was matched with four unaffected controls, by maternal age, participating centre, and duration of sample storage. The samples came from women whose gestational age ranged from 6 to 14 completed weeks. The median AFP level in the affected pregnancies was 1·2 multiples of the median value in unaffected pregnancies of the same gestational age (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0·83–1·59). This confirmed the view that serum AFP measurement is of no practical value in the detection of NTDs in the first trimester of pregnancy. The study also showed that folic acid supplementation, used as a method of preventing NTDs, had no effect on the concentrations of maternal serum AFP up to 14 weeks of pregnancy.     

Amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels and prenatal diagnosis of autosomal trisomies

Pregnancies with fetal trisomy 21 have been associated with low amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels (AFAFP). This observation led to the suggestion that low AFAFP levels be used as a criterion for completion of a chromosomal analysis in patients who are not otherwise at increased risk for a fetal chromosome abnormality and in whom karyotyping might not have been completed for economic reasons. In order to assess the usefulness of such criteria, we reviewed the AFAFP levels of 90 cases of fetal trisomy 21, 23 cases of trisomy 18, and 10 cases of trisomy 13. These were compared with 2400 control samples with normal chromosome constitution. AFAFP levels were generally lower in pregnancies with trisomy 21, showing a median value of 0·72 MoM. However, 40 per cent of the trisomy 21 samples had AFAFP values greater than 0·8 MoM and 20 per cent were over 1·0 MoM. These data imply that over 50 per cent of Down syndrome cases might have been missed using a cut-off level of 0·70 MoM for completion of chromosome analysis. Using a higher cut-off level will leave only a small percentage of samples unkaryotyped. The distribution of AFP levels in trisomy 13 and 18 is no different from controls; we therefore believe that fetal karyotyping should be completed in every amniotic fluid sample obtained.     

Maternal Serum CA 125 for aneuploidy detection in early pregnancy

Maternal serum CA 125 levels were determined at 9–11 menstrual weeks for 26 cases of trisomy 13 (n = 4), trisomy 18 (n = 7), trisomy 21 (n = 15), and appropriate controls. There were no statistically significant differences between groups.