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61.
The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive
and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and
the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program
was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to
an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters
measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential
sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability
to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into
account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings
to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects,
corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected
data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring
programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality
of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference
in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially
lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately
$183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations
monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs. 相似文献
62.
Z. Zlatev I. Dimov Tz. Ostromsky G. Geernaert I. Tzvetanov A. Bastrup-Birk 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2001,6(1):35-55
In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark. 相似文献
63.
64.
Nabil Semmar Maurice Jay Muhammad Farman Maurice Roux 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(1):17-33
The quantitative assessment of plant diversity and its monitoring with time represent a key environmental issue for management
and conservation of natural resources. Assessment of plant diversity could be based on chemical analyses of secondary metabolites
(e.g. flavonoids, terpenoids), because of the substantial quantitative and qualitative between-individual variability in such
compounds. At a geographical scale, the plant populations become widely dispersed, and their monitoring from numerous routine
individual analyses could become restricting. To overcome such constraint, this study develops a multivariate calibration
model giving the relative frequency of a particular taxon from a simple high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis
of a plant mixture. The model was built from a complete set of mixtures combining different taxons, according to an experimental
design (Scheffé’s matrix). For each mixture, a reference HPLC pattern was simulated by averaging the individual HPLC profiles
of the constitutive taxons. The calibration models, based on Bayesian discriminant analysis (BDA), gave statistical relationships
between the contributions of each taxon in mixtures and reference HPLC patterns of these mixtures. Finally, these models were
validated on new mixtures by using outside plants. This new biodiversity survey approach is illustrated on four chemical taxons
(four chemotypes) of Astragalus caprinus (Fabaceae). The more differentiated the taxon, the better predicted its contributions (in mixtures) were by BDA calibration
model. This new approach could be very useful for a global routine survey of plant diversity. 相似文献
65.
针对我国当前广泛使用的2种高速公路噪声预测模型《06规范》预测模型与《09导则》预测模型在预测时比较研究,重点利用环境现状监测数据分别对2种模型验证与对比分析.结果表明,2种模型预测值与实测值相差3dB ~5dB,车流量> 300辆/h,《09导则》更接近实测值;在夜间车流量<300辆/h,《06规范》更接近实测值,2种模型结合采用《06规范》计算的车速,距离衰减考虑车流量的大小,在此基础上应用《09导则》,预测结果与实测值更为接近. 相似文献
66.
Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration. 相似文献
67.
Beverly Z.L. Oh Ana M.M. Sequeira Mark G. Meekan Jonathan L.W. Ruppert Jessica J. Meeuwig 《Conservation biology》2017,31(3):635-645
Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km2 of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs. 相似文献
68.
Gerald Kirchner Friederike Strebl Peter Bossew Sabine Ehlken Martin H. Gerzabek 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2009
Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments. 相似文献
69.
Conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial predictive models of biodiversity to support decision-making. Therefore, highly accurate and ecologically meaningful models are required at relatively broad spatial scales. While statistical techniques have been optimized to improve model accuracy, less focus has been given to the question: How does the autecology of a single species affect model quality? We compare a direct modelling approach versus a cumulative modelling approach for predicting plant species richness, where the latter gives more weight to the ecology of functional species groups. In the direct modelling approach, species richness is predicted by a single model calibrated for all species. In the cumulative modelling approach, the species were partitioned into functional groups, with each group calibrated separately and species richness of each group was cumulated to predict total species richness. We hypothesized that model accuracy depends on the ecology of individual species and that the cumulative modelling approach would predict species richness more accurately. The predictors explained plant species richness by ca. 25%. However, depending on the functional group the deviance explained varied from 3 to 67%. While both modelling approaches performed equally well, the models of the different functional groups highly varied in their quality and their spatial richness pattern. This variability helps to improve our understanding on how plant functional groups respond to ecological gradients. 相似文献
70.
Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts. 相似文献