贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。     

Application of CFD on the sensitivity analyses of some parameters of the modified Hartmann tube

The aim of this work is to determine the influence of operating parameters such as the dispersion pressure, the ignition delay and height on the dust flammability. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation, based on an Euler–Lagrange approach, was developed with Ansys Fluent™ and validated experimentally. Such analysis will facilitate the choice of the most conservative conditions for a flammability test. This paper is focused on a case study performed on wheat starch with the modified Hartmann tube. The dispersion process of the powder was studied with granulometric analyses performed in situ and high speed videos. Tests were performed with injections at gas pressure ranging from 3 to 6 bars and the evolution of the particle size distribution (PSD) was recorded at different ignition heights (5, 10 and 15 cm over the dispersion nozzle). The observations highlighted the presence of agglomeration/deagglomeration processes and dust segregation. Besides, a CFD simulation analysis was aimed at evaluating the impact of a set of parameters on the PSD and the local turbulence, which are closely linked to some flammability parameters. For this computational analysis, the CFD simulation was coupled with a collision treatment based on a Discrete Element Method (DEM) in order to consider the cohesive behavior of the combustible dust. Thus the results suggest performing the injection of the gases at approximately 5 bars for the flammability tests of wheat starch in order to obtain the finest PSD at a given ignition height. It is also shown that the finest PSD are obtained at 5 cm over the dispersion nozzle. However, the local instabilities and turbulence levels are so high during the first stages of the dispersion that the flame growth can be disturbed for short ignition delays. Moreover, the stabilization of the bulk of the dust cloud requires longer periods of time when the ignition sources are located at 15 cm. As a result, the recommended height to perform a flammability test is 10 cm in this case. Finally, this study proposes some tools that might improve the procedure of dust flammability testing.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

关于气溶胶颗粒物沉积率系数平均方法模型的改进研究

气溶胶颗粒物在壁面的沉积率系数模型的研究已经成为现代气溶胶动力学研究的重要课题.本文通过实验腔测量和理论分析相结合,对Koivisto等(2012)提出的平均方法模型(AM)中的关键参数(即时间间隔)的选取和对测量数据量的要求两个问题进行研究.选取目前广泛使用的最小二乘法模型(LSM)和Lai和Nazaroff(2000)提出的理论分析模型进行对比.研究发现,AM模型中的时间间隔这一关键参数,应由目前的50矫正为20;AM模型和LSM模型均要求实验测量数据个数等于或者大于10,但是AM模型在小数据量情况下的预测结果更精确.     

Trace elements in particulate matter of ambient air at petroleum filling stations

Size segregated suspended particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM_10-2.5) in air at four major petroleum-filling stations in Ile-Ife, Nigeria, were monitored using double staged “Gent” stacked samplers to assess variations in mass loads and elemental concentrations of 25 elements. Na, Mg, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, Rb, Sr, Zr, Cs, Ta, W, and Pb were determined in both fractions by external ion beam proton-induced X-ray emission technique. Enrichment factors and pollution indices were calculated and results revealed that most elements were anthropogenic in both fractions with concentrations exceeding the World Health Organization guideline standards.     

Model of chloride ingress into concrete in cold regions

Chloride ingress and freeze-thaw cycles are the most important mechanisms for deterioration of concrete in cold areas. In this study, chloride ingress into concrete that has been exposed to freeze-thaw cycles was investigated. Data demonstrated that freeze-thaw cycles allow for a larger effective diffusion coefficient. Based on our findings, the concept of a developing coefficient was defined to obtain the evolution equation of the effective diffusion coefficient. Together with considering the effect of aging of concrete on the effective diffusion coefficient, the time-dependent diffusion coefficient was also obtained. Based on Fick's second law and time-dependent diffusion coefficient, chloride ingress model of concrete in cold regions was derived. Finally, the model was tested by comparing predicted results, lab results, and in situ inspection data.     

预测沉积物-水微宇宙系统中化学品浓度变化的多介质模型

沉积物-水微宇宙系统是经济合作发展组织(Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development,OECD)颁布的化学品测试准则中推荐的试验系统之一,可用来测试化学品对底栖生物的慢性毒性。为了在试验前对化学品的浓度变化进行预测,进而确定试验方法,以摇蚊慢性毒性试验系统为例,采用环境多介质模型的建模方法,构建了一种可通过化学品理化性质和试验系统参数,对化学品在沉积物-水试验系统中浓度变化进行预测的模型。结合试验数据和文献资料,给出了模型中试验系统参数的推荐取值,并使用Matlab软件中的Simulink工具对模型进行编程和求解。以此模型为基础,给出了模型在3个方面的应用,即预测蓄积时间、预测平衡时间以及拟合试验数据。对80种已有或假想化学品的蓄积时间和平衡时间进行了计算,得出的范围分别为1~204 d和1~73 d。此外,适当修改模型结构和模型参数,也可将其应用于其他暴露场景中。但使用模型对化学品浓度进行预测时发现,模型仅对沉积物中化学品浓度的预测结果较为准确,而对水中化学品浓度的预测结果与实测值相差1~2个数量级。模型对浓度的预测精度未来仍需进一步提高。上述研究结果完善了沉积物-水微宇宙系统试验方法。     

表观遗传学机制与空气污染的健康效应

空气污染是一个全球性的问题,并且具有深远的环境影响。暴露于空气污染会对人体健康产生许多不同的影响,理解空气污染的健康效应又是一个复杂命题,既要考虑不同类型的污染物同时也要考虑相关疾病的复杂性。然而越来越多的研究表明,表观遗传学在空气污染相关疾病的发生、发展中发挥着重要的作用。空气污染物可引起DNA甲基化、组蛋白修饰和miRNA表达等表观遗传学改变,这种改变往往发生在疾病产生的早期,因此相关研究不仅可以了解疾病的发病机制,而且还为疾病早期诊断和预防筛选可能的标志物。本文综述了表观遗传学的几种修饰方式和空气污染物造成不良健康损伤机制的一些研究进展。     

基于前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价普适模型

为了建立由水环境、空气环境、生态环境、水资源环境、灾害环境、遥感环境、社会经济环境等不同环境系统组成的广义环境系统评价都能普适、通用的神经网络模型,针对BP神经网络因收敛速度慢、易于陷入局部极值而使实用性受限的缺陷,提出以双极性sigmoid函数作为网络隐层节点(神经元)的激活函数,而网络输出为所有隐层节点输出的线性求和的前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价模型.在设置广义环境系统指标参照值和指标值规范变换式,并对指标值进行规范变换的基础上,分别构建了适用于广义环境系统评价的任意2个指标规范值的前向神经网模型(NV-FNN(2)结构)和任意3个指标规范值的前向神经网模型(NV-FNN(3)结构).而对于指标较多的广义环境系统评价,只要将多指标分解为以上2个指标和3个指标的两种简单结构的前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价模型的组合表示即可.理论分析和实例检验结果表明:该模型对任意广义环境系统的规范指标值皆普适、通用,因而使不同环境系统的评价变得简洁、统一.规范变换和优化算法相结合的建模思想和方法对简化广义环境系统评价的多元回归、投影寻踪回归、回归支持向量机和径向基神经网络建模亦有借鉴和启迪作用.     

内循环厌氧反应器流动模型及反应过程模拟

为揭示内循环厌氧反应器放大过程中所出现的规律,本文对反应器中流动模型和反应过程进行了模拟研究,通过对主反应区的停留时间分布的实验研究,确定了主反应区流型可用一平推流与两个并联的全混流进行串联的三参数组合模型进行模拟.在实验范围内,平推流区所占的体积分数约为36%,两个全混流区所占的体积分数分别为53%和11%.结合厌氧反应动力学方程,应用组合模型模拟了实际反应器的状态,并和实验值进行了对比,发现反应器出口处CH_4体积流量最大误差为9.67%,在可允许的范围内.同时,模拟了基质初始COD和温度变化对反应器出口状态的影响.研究表明,与其它模型相比,组合模型计算简洁,同时又有较好的精度,能够满足反应器的设计需要.