A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL TESTS ON THE EXTREME-VALUE TYPE-1 DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of the selections of plotting position formulae and class division schemes on goodness of fit tests are investigated for the extreme-value type-1 distribution using annual flood and annual maximum daily rainfall data. It was found that the plotting position formulae have a minor influence on the tests which involve their use, while the class division schemes may have a pronounced effect on the X²-test. The study also recommended the maximum likelihood method for fitting purposes and a new test which is independent of the afore-mentioned selections for judging the goodness of fit.     

ESTIMATED STREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS FOR FISHES OF THE WASHITA RIVER BELOW FOSS RESERVOIR,WESTERN OKLAHOMA1

Velocity and depth preference curves for juvenile and adult red shiners (Notropis lutrensis) were developed for each season of the year. The incremental methodology, developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for quantifying the amount of physical habitat available for fish, was applied as a basis for recommending minimum stream flows for life stages of red shiners and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) in the Washita River below Foss Reservoir. The minimum stream flow required to support populations of red shiners and channel catfish was estimated to be 0.60 m³/s during all months except April and May, during which flushing flows of 3.0 m³/s were recommended. Under drought conditions a contingency flow of 0.18 m³/s was recommended for August through March, a flushing flow of 2.4 m³/s for April and May, and a flow of 0.30 m³/s for channel catfish spawning in June and July. Standing crop of adult red shiners per weighted usable area averaged 2.73 g/m² (27 kg/ha) for two sites on the Washita River. A positive relation between standing crop and weighted usable area was suggested. Use of the incremental methodology on the study reach below Foss Reservoir required 96 person-hours of labor, excluding training, travel, and developing preference curves, and a total cost of $1,762, of which $1,200 was for the purchase of equipment.     

可燃气体(液体蒸气)的爆炸极限与最大允许氧含量的对比研究

通过实验研究了可燃气体(液体蒸气)的爆炸极限规律,从全新的角度分析了各种浓度可燃气体(液体蒸气)的最大允许氧含量的规律,并运用数值分析原理拟合出其规律函数,可从理论上求得各种浓度可燃气体(液体蒸气)的最大允许氧含量值。通过爆炸极限和最大允许氧含量规律的对比研究,分析了两者相辅相成的重要关系,指出两者从不同角度界定了可燃气体(液体蒸气)的爆炸范围,是衡量可燃气体(液体蒸气)爆炸危险性的两个重要参数。     

基于小波变换与传统时间序列模型的臭氧浓度多步预测

采用最大重叠小波分解与重构方法,将影响O3小时浓度的不同时间尺度的物化过程分离出来,以提高序列的光滑性.同时,选择合适的传统时间序列模型(如ARIMA模型等)来描述不同过程的序列特征,并分别拟合预报.最后,在建模中引入24 h季节项,以实现提前24 h-次性预测未来1d的O3逐时浓度.结果表明,预报的平均相对误差为12.92％,平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为10.04 μ.g·m-3和13.98μg·m-3,预报值与实测值的相关系数和匹配指数分别为0.96和0.98.随着预测期的延长,预报误差仍处于可接受范围内.该方法同样适用于每日最大O3小时浓度预报,研究结果为发布天气预报式的空气质量预报提供了新思路,便于公众规划出行并减少大气污染暴露.     

Escherichia coli Concentrations in Urban Watersheds Exhibit Diurnal Sag: Implications for Water‐Quality Monitoring and Assessment

The variability of indicator bacteria over a fine resolution time scale on the order of minutes has yet to be fully understood. In this study, we collected more than 700 Escherichia coli samples at a 10‐ and 30‐min resolution in an urban watershed in Houston. A Bacteria Diurnal Sag (BDS) marked with daytime exponential decay followed by an exponential nighttime regeneration was observed. This pattern was observed during all sampled events but varied depending on other variables. The concentrations during a 24‐h period varied 1 to 5 orders of magnitude and the fecal load was at least 10 times lower than what would be obtained using a single morning E. coli measurement, the typical sampling scheme in most monitoring programs. Decay rates, ranging from 3.67 to 24.7/day, decreased E. coli concentrations to below the water‐quality standards from 14:00 to 18:00 h and were strongly influenced by water temperatures and solar radiation intensities. Rapid regeneration occurred on the order of 9.41 to 64.1/day allowing E. coli concentrations to return to their pre‐decay levels. The data indicated that four to six samples taken between 06:00 and 18:00 h may be sufficient to define the BDS depending on stream conditions, and that a threshold concentration of approximately 100 MPN/dl (most probable number in a deciliter) existed for the studied urban watershed. These findings have significant implications for water‐quality monitoring, regulation, and compliance.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Reserve Selection: Representation, Species Weighting, and Benefit Functions

Abstract:  The limited availability of resources for conservation has led to the development of many quantitative methods for selecting reserves that aim to maximize the biodiversity value of reserve networks. In published analyses, species are often considered equal, although some are in much greater need of protection than others. Furthermore, representation is usually treated as a threshold: a species is either represented or not, but varying levels of representation over or under a given target level are not valued differently. We propose that a higher representation level should also have higher value. We introduce a framework for reserve selection that includes species weights and benefit functions for under- and overrepresentation (number of locations for each species). We applied the method to conservation planning for herb-rich forests in southern Finland. Our use of benefit functions and weighting changed the identity of about 50% of the selected sites at different funding levels and improved the representation of rare and threatened species. We also identified a small area of additional land that would substantially enhance the existing reserve network. We suggest that benefit functions and species weighting should be considered as standard options in reserve-selection applications.     

杭州湾北岸36种挥发性有机物污染特征及来源解析

为研究杭州湾北岸VOCs (挥发性有机物)的浓度水平、组成特征、反应活性和潜在来源,采用GC-FID在线监测系统对杭州湾北岸环境大气中的36种VOCs开展了为期1 a (2017年12月—2018年11月)的连续观测,采用L^OH(VOCs的·OH消耗速率)和OFP (O₃生成潜势)2种方法估算了大气VOCs的反应活性,并利用PMF (正定矩阵因子分解)和CPF (条件概率函数)模型分析其来源.结果表明:①φ(VOCs)小时平均值在冬季(26.47×10^-9)最高,夏季(9.76×10^-9)最低;全年φ(VOCs)小时平均值为21.24×10^-9,其中烷烃、烯烃+炔烃、芳香烃、卤代烃的贡献率分别为33.24%、34.13%、15.63%、17.00%;φ(烷烃)、φ(芳香烃)和φ(卤代烃)呈较明显的昼夜变化特征,φ(烯烃)和φ(炔烃)无明显昼夜变化趋势.②大气VOCs的总L^OH和OFP分别为9.39s^-1和220.57μg/m^...     

战斗部飞行可靠性评估方法研究

目的 解决高可靠、小子样战斗部飞行可靠性评估时样本量不满足标准要求的问题。方法 通过对战斗部结构功能分析,建立包含壳体强度、主装药安定性及主装药正常起爆等单元的可靠性框图,并利用L-M法对战斗部系统进行可靠性评估。首先利用基准设计许用值的安全系数法将应力强度干涉模型与安全系数进行结合,对壳体强度可靠性进行评估;然后结合战斗部试验数据,利用最大熵试验法,在小样本下评估战斗部主装药安定性及正常起爆的可靠性;最后,将各单元的可靠性数据转化为成败型数据进行分析,利用L-M法,结合战斗部整机试验数据,开展战斗部飞行可靠度评估。结果 分别计算了小子样下战斗部壳体和装药安定性及正常起爆的可靠度,并将其转换为等效成功数和等效失败数,结合战斗部试验打靶等可靠性信息,综合评估了战斗部飞行可靠度。结论 充分利用战斗部在研制阶段的试验信息进行评估,减少了样本量,解决了战斗部可靠性高、样本量小的评估难题。     

冬季不同污水处理工艺对溶解性有机物的去除

以东北地区4个城市污水处理厂为研究对象,考察冬季不同污水处理工艺对溶解性有机物(DOM)组分的去除效果,以及对DOM组分的光谱学特性和卤代活性的影响.利用XAD树脂将DOM分为5个部分:疏水性有机酸(HPO-A)、疏水性中性有机物(HPO-N)、过渡亲水性有机酸(TPI-A)、过渡亲水性中性有机物(TPI-N)和亲水性有机物(HPI).结果表明,A/O法、曝气生物滤池、浮动填料法和A2/O法对DOM都具有较高的去除能力,其中曝气生物滤池对DOM的处理效果最好.经4种污水处理工艺处理后,5种组分的芳香性和三卤甲烷生成活性(STHMFP)均升高.A2/O法对HPO-A和TPI-A的芳香性增强程度最高,而曝气生物滤池对HPO-N,TPI-N和HPI的芳香性增强程度最高.浮动填料法对HPO-A,TPI-A和HPI的STHMFP升高最显著,A2/O法对HPO-N的STHMFP增加最显著,曝气生物滤池对TPI-N的STHMFP升高最显著.4种污水处理工艺对HPI中荧光物质的去除率高于非荧光物质.而对于其他4种DOM组分来说,不同的污水处理工艺对不同荧光峰的改变不相同.