An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

Energy futures and green chemistry: competing for carbon

Global energy demand is expected to increase from the current 400 ExaJ per year to as much as 700–1,000 ExaJ per year by the middle of this century. If fossil carbon resources continue to make up the bulk of the energy supply, not only will atmospheric carbon dioxide increase to levels not seen for the past 30–35 million years, but depleting fossil carbon resources will become increasingly less available for other purposes, particularly the production of chemicals on which society now depends. The chemical process industries are heavily dependent on the availability of low-price petroleum as a feedstock. Recent life-cycle analyses suggest that pursuing both strategies of renewable energy sources and renewable feedstocks (i.e. biomass) will be required to meet these competing demands. Reducing the global use of both energy and manufactured chemicals will be a challenge for sustainable development. Education of the next generation of chemists and chemical engineers will have to change significantly from its current emphasis on petrochemical-based manufacturing to include a much greater emphasis on renewable resources and bio-based processes.Brief accounts of this work were presented at the 7th International Symposium on Green Chemistry in China (Zhuhai, People’s Republic of China, May 2005) and at the Joint US–China Green Chemistry Workshop (Beijing, People’s Republic of China, May 2005; this workshop was supported by US National Science Foundation grant CHE-0522369).     

节能的目标责任制与自愿协议

节能目标责任制和节能自愿协议作为两种不同的节能管理手段,在我国节能管理工作中发挥了不同的作用,对二者进行模式总结和比较分析,对我国未来的节能政策制定和政策工具选择具有重要意义.研究结果表明,节能目标责任制和节能自愿协议都发生在政府与企业之间,涉及一定时期内的企业节能目标,由政府与企业签订书面承诺,并有相应的评估监督方法.同时二者又存在不同的模式和特征,在具体的实施主体、指标的选择以及激励约束机制等方面存在诸多差别."十一五"期间,我国工业企业节能取得巨大成效,这与节能目标责任制的实施密不可分,而节能自愿协议在机制创新方面有着更为重大的制度意义,它代表了在节能管理领域基于自愿的市场机制对我国传统行政命令型资源环境管理模式的补充,它的进一步推进将为我国未来多种机制并存的节能管理提供更多有益的经验和借鉴.     

中国能源安全的路径选择与战略框架

能源是国民经济可持续发展的基础,可持续能源战略对保障国家能源安全具有重要意义,能源安全与能源战略日益成为当前国际社会和国家安全战略中备受关注的重大问题.本文从中国的现实状况出发,阐述了制定国家能源安全战略的重要性,提出了能源安全的选择路径,构建了全面性能源安全战略框架,为制定我国长期能源安全战略提供参考.论文认为:国家能源安全战略是能源可持续供给、社会经济健康发展、突发事件合理应对、生态环境安全的重要保障;中国能源安全的路径应从能源供给安全、能源生产和使用安全、能源运输安全、能源环境安全及能源安全预警机制等方面进行选择;健全能源管理体制、能源政策、能源市场、能源技术、能源战略储备、提高输送能力、能源环境与节能是能源安全战略框架的重要内容.并提出以下建议:建立国家能源安全综合协调机构;运用市场机制提高能源效率,促进能源利用多元化;加快替代能源和新能源的技术研发;加强能源资源的战略储备.     

FDI技术溢出、能源约束与区域创新产出分析

要建立了将区域R&D投入、FDI、能源以及人力资本效率作为生产函数投入要素的内生增长模型,采用我国2004-2009年30个省市的相关面板数据,分析能源约束对区域创新产出和FDI技术溢出效应的影响,同时测算能源约束区域创新产出的“增长阻力”的大小及决定增长阻力大小的深层次因素.实证结果表明,FDI仍然是我国区域创新能力提高的重要外部推动力.只是长期以来,在忽略能源约束作用的条件下,FDI对区域创新产出的溢出效应被夸大了.FDI、区域R&D人力投入和区域人力资本效率促进了区域创新产出的增长,而能源限制了区域创新产出的增长.能源所占区域创新产出的份额越低,能源效率提高的速度越快,则能源所带来的“增长阻力”越小.R&D人员投入增长越快,R&D经费投入所占份额越高的地区所面临的来自能源的“增长阻力”越大.此外,人力资本效率作为衡量区域对FDI技术溢出吸收能力的主要指标,影响了FDI对区域创新产出溢出效应的大小.最后,根据研究结论给出了相关政策建议.     

基于弹性系数的大兴区环境-经济预警研究

在环境-经济系统中,选择弹性系数对区域节能减排做预警研究,构建基于弹性系数的区域环境-经济预警系统。将该预警系统应用于实际案例中,计算了符合北京市大兴区节能减排目标要求的弹性系数区间,对区域未来的环境-经济状况进行预测和预警。在惯性发展情景下,大兴区2010年和2020年环境-经济系统处于临界状态,节能减排达标尚存在一定困难,其中SO2、COD排放是区域环境-经济安全的最大影响因素。     

Research on Energy Consumption Evaluation Combined with Endogenous Pollutants of China Based on Entropy-Topsis

The traditional evaluation of energy consumption mostly introduces pollutants as a negative economic output into evaluating model,ignoring the configuration relationship among the energy input,pollutants as well as economic output.This paper considers the overall process of energy consumption and constructs an evaluation indication system of energy consumption level combined with endogenous pollutants based on entropytopsis method,then makes empirical research.The results show that China’s energy consumption level presents a fluctuant rise in the premise of emission.Energy consumption level depends on the relationship among energy input,pollutants and economic output.The raise of energy consumption level should not increase economic output and reduce pollutant emission at the expense of environment.Finally,the whole paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the overall level of energy consumption.     

中国省际技术进步、技术效率与区域能源需求

构建了技术进步、技术效率与区域能源需求的分析框架,采用Malmquist指数估算1995-2007年中国29个省(直辖市、自治区)的全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其分解为技术进步指数和效率变化指数。在此基础上,实证分析了技术进步、技术效率对区域能源需求的影响,并考察了能源相对价格、人力资本和固定资本存量等因素,进行技术进步、技术效率对能源需求影响的实证检验,为我国制定合理的区域节能政策提供理论依据。本文的研究结果表明,技术进步、技术效率对能源需求的影响表现出明显的地区差异:技术效率对东部和中部地区的能源需求有显著负影响;技术进步只对东部地区的能源需求有显著负影响;技术进步、技术效率对西部地区的能源需求均没有显著影响。各个地区不同的经济基础、能源资源禀赋和对外开放度可能是造成该现象的主要原因。在上述结论基础上,论文对中国区域技术进步与节能提出了相应的政策建议。     

结构变动、技术进步以及价格对能源效率的影响

本文旨在分析中国工业化进程中影响能源消耗及其效率的主要因素。通过理论研究,我们认为经济结构、技术进步以及能源市场化改革是中国工业化进程中的主要影响因素。从这些影响因素的作用机理来看,经济结构与工业化阶段密切相关,对能源效率的影响是一个长期的过程;而在经济结构相对稳定的短期内,技术进步是提升能源效率的重要因素;在市场经济条件下,能源价格是提高能源效率的长期而稳定的激励机制。在此基础上,我们综合利用1990-2006年省际、四大区域、13个主要工业省区面板数据,以及工业行业数据,实证估计这些因素对能源效率的影响程度。几个估计结果综合显示,这三大因素对中国工业化进程中的能源效率具有重要的影响作用。这意味着当前节能减排的政策重点必须立足于长期,谨慎采用单纯的节能降耗这种行政命令式的短期策略,重点采用基于激励机制的治理策略,弱化长期以来形成的高耗能技术结构,引导节能环保型技术的创新与扩散。