Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks. 相似文献
The assessment of the ecosystem health of urban rivers and lakes is the scientific basis for their management and ecological
restoration. This study developed a three-level indicator system for its assessment. The results indicated that: Zhonghai
and Nanhai are in the state of transition from unhealthy to critical state and all the other lakes are in unhealthy states.
Water environmental quality, structure and function of the aquatic ecosystem, and the structure of waterfront areas were the
constraints. Nanhai was ranked as poor and the others were all ranked as very poor. However, the ecological environment of
Zhonghai and Nanhai were better than the others, the sums of the degree of membership to the healthy state and critical state
were all close to 0.6. and the restorations of these lakes were moderate. The sums of the degree of membership to the healthy
state and critical state of the other lakes were under 0.3, as it was difficult to restore these lakes. Some suggestions on
scientific management and ecological restoration of the six lakes were proposed: ①To control non-point pollution and to improve
the water quality of six lakes and the water entering into these lakes; ②To improve the hydrological conditions of six lakes;
③To rehabilitate the aquatic ecosystem and waterfront areas.
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Translated from Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2005, 25(11): 3019–3027[译自: 生态学报] 相似文献
Introduction: The purposes of this study are to characterize Israeli undergraduate students' driving violations in the terms of problem behavior theory and to identify whether there is any relationship between driving violations and health risk behaviors, daring behaviors, excitement seeking, and health promotion behaviors.
Methods: This study is based on a structured self-reported anonymous questionnaire distributed to undergraduate students in an academic institution. The sample included 533 undergraduate students (374 females and 159 males). The mean age was 23.4 (SD = 1.4, range = 5).
Results: A higher prevalence of self-reported driving violations was found among males in comparison to females. All substance use measures were positively related to driving violations; for example, use of cigarettes (OR = 4.287, P <.001) and water pipes (odds ratio [OR] = 3.000, P <.001) as well as binge drinking (OR = 5.707, P <.001) and regular cannabis smoking (OR = 5.667, P <.001) raise the probability of committing rare driving violations. The strongest predictive factors for the frequent driving violations group were alcohol consumption–related variables: binge drinking (OR = 2.560, P <.01) and drunkenness (OR = 2.284, P <.05). Strong odd ratios were also found between the frequent driving violations group and selling or dealing drugs (12.143, P <.001), and stealing something valuable (13.680, P <.001). The strongest predicted variable for the rare driving violations group was physical confrontation due to verbal disagreement (3.439, P <.05) and the concept that selling or dealing drugs is socially acceptable (2.521, P <.05). The probability of executing rare driving violations was higher for subjects who reported intense physical workout regimens (OR = 1.638, P <.05).
Conclusions: Problem behavior theory succeeded in explaining health risk behavior and driving violations. This study shows that bachelors tend to be more involved in risk behaviors, such as substance use, excitement-seeking behaviors, and daring behaviors and are active physically and thus constitute a risk group for driving violations. As such, intervention resources should be directed toward this group. 相似文献