新安江水库主要入流营养盐的时间变化特征及其影响因素分析

流域上游来水是水库的重要补给源,其水质状况直接决定下游受纳水库的生态系统状态和功能,研究入库来水营养盐的时间演变特征并揭示其变化的影响因素,为水库水质管理提供重要科学依据。以新安江水库安徽辖区为研究区,分析了2007—2016年期间流域入库水质的变化特征,探讨水文、气象等环境条件对入库水质的影响。研究结果表明,2007年以来,COD_Mn和透明度表现为下降趋势,TN、TP、NH₃-N呈明显上升趋势,来水营养水平上升,但叶绿素a呈下降趋势。流域降水带来的水文情势的变化对来水水质起重要作用,来水中N、P营养盐丰水期显著高于枯水期,同流域降水过程显著正相关。     

A community driving under the influence (DUI) study of declining arrests

Abstract

Objective: Recent news reports in 2016 indicated that across Miami–Dade County, Florida, driving under the influence (DUI) arrests have decreased substantially. The objective of this research was to determine the reasons for the decline in DUI arrests from 2009 to 2016. Are there fewer impaired drivers on the roads? Can DUI enforcement and prosecution be improved?

Methods: The following methods were used in this study: (1) Analysis of existing DUI arrest and crash data; (2) conducting and analysis of a telephone survey of reported knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors concerning impaired driving; (3) conducting and analysis of roadside surveys on the roads on weekend nights in Miami–Dade County; (4) information from focus group discussions with police and prosecutors in Miami–Dade County; and (5) a comprehensive review of the best DUI prevention practices and enforcement strategies used across the country.

Results: DUI arrests decreased 64% in Miami–Dade County between 2009 and 2016. This was a significantly larger decrease than has occurred in the State of Florida as a whole (34%) and in the United States (29%) over the same time period. The decline was not due to any decline in DUI behavior in the county.

Conclusions: Based upon the data and information gathered in this project, the following actions were recommended for Miami–Dade County: (1) County police chiefs need to find ways to overcome law enforcement apathy toward DUI enforcement and persuade their traffic enforcement officers to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to identifying and making impaired driving stops. (2) County police agencies should join forces to conduct more sobriety checkpoints. Checkpoints are safer for both the police and the drivers going through them and serve as a general deterrent to impaired driving. (3) An interagency DUI task force or team of 5 to 7 officers should be established within the county. These officers would be solely dedicated to DUI enforcement and paid for by each individual agency or under a grant from the state or federal government.     

有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究

有色金属作为国际上流通量较大的大宗产品,近年来其价格的频繁剧烈波动受到学界和业界的高度关注。从有色金属国际贸易的交易量数据看,中国、美国、巴西等20个国家是有色金属国际贸易的主体,贸易量较大的是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属。本文选取了国际贸易中铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的主要进口国和出口国,在已有研究的基础上,从供需、实体经济和货币金融三个维度选取变量,运用国家之间构成的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,分析四种有色金属价格的波动及其影响因素;通过铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格的脉冲响应函数,比较分析铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动影响因素的不同。研究发现:(1)铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动均受国内生产总值和货币供应量的影响,供需因素对有色金属价格产生长期的影响,货币供给量对有色金属价格的影响短暂而剧烈;(2)国内生产总值和贸易量与铜价的波动密切相关,货币供应量和消费者价格指数与铝、铅、锌价格的波动密切相关;(3)有色金属主要贸易国的各个变量对铜、铝、铅、锌价格波动的贡献程度不同。铜贸易国的贸易量对铜价波动的贡献度要高于其他有色金属贸易国家;铝、铅、锌贸易国家的金融因素对铝、铅、锌价格的影响要强于铜贸易国家。最后,本文从进口国角度对中国有色金属进口提出了建议:中国是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的最大进口国,应密切关注有色金属价格走势,建立健全有色金属价格的实时监测和预警机制,加快对有色金属价格波动的反应速度,利用金融手段避险趋利。     

基于GIS和RUSLE模型的万州区土壤保持服务功能空间分布特征

土壤保持服务是重要的生态系统服务之一,代表生态系统对土壤侵蚀所起到的削减和改善作用。以万州为研究区,基于GIS平台和修正通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE),运用降雨、DEM等数据建模,探讨万州区土壤保持服务功能的空间分布特征并分析其影响因素。结果显示:(1)万州区土壤保持总量为1 435.84×10~5t/a,单位面积年均土壤保持量为417.91 t/(hm~2·a),具有较高的土壤保持服务功能重要性;(2)土壤保持服务空间分布受地形和人类活动等的显著影响,东南部山地区域较高,而铁峰山与方斗山之间的长江河谷较低,其空间分布特征与土壤侵蚀的分布状况大致相反;(3)坡度角度,15°~25°坡度区产沙量最大占全区的41.56%,8°~15°区域次之,这两个坡度区人地矛盾最为集中;土地利用类型中,旱地侵蚀最为强烈,而林地侵蚀微弱并表现出很高的土壤保持服务功能。研究结果对万州乃至整个三峡库区的水土保持工作有借鉴意义。     

Assessment of seasonal variations of carbon dioxide concentration in Iran using GOSAT data

Global warming and climate change have been identified as the most important challenges of the 21st century. Greenhouse Gases Observation Satellite (GOSAT) measures the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO ₂) and methane (CH ₄) in the atmosphere column from the earth's surface to the upper atmosphere. In this research, GOSAT Thermal And Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO‐FTS) level 2 data and meteorological parameters were used in the assessment of changes in CO ₂ concentration (XCO ₂) from 2009 to 2015. We investigated the relationship between XCO ₂ and meteorological parameters (temperature and precipitation) obtained from weather stations and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the year 2013 in Iran. The results reveal a steady increase in the mean atmospheric CO ₂ concentration, from 384.89 to 400.39 ppm. It was observed that the XCO ₂ varied significantly depending on the month, with the highest concentration of CO ₂ in April/May and the lowest concentration in August/September. The correlation between XCO ₂ and average monthly air temperature is negative, which means that a reduction in XCO ₂ with an increase in temperature is dependent on photosynthetic activities in the growing seasons. The highest and lowest correlation coefficient between the NDVI and XCO ₂ was obtained in the spring and in the fall, respectively. These findings are useful for recognizing factors that affect CO ₂ concentration in different seasons in arid and semi‐arid regions, and as an initial step toward sustainable management.     

关于环境管理手段实施条件和影响的若干分析

不同的环境管理手段其适用条件和实施效果往往是不同的。一方面环境管理手段的实施效果要受到各种因素的影响,其实施条件往往不同,另一方面不同的环境管理手段对企业也带来不同的影响。在本文中作者首先讨论了信息的非对称性这个研究涉及较少而又普遍存在的因素对环境管理手段实施效果的影响,然后又比较了不同的环境管理手段对企业技术革新的不同影响。     

Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) has developed and implemented for operational use a real-time dispersion model Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) with capability for predicting concentrations and depositions of the radioactive debris from large accidental releases. SNAP has been closely linked to DNMI’s operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.How good are these predictions? Participation in ETEX has partly answered this question. DNMI used SNAP with LAM50S giving meteorological input for these real-time dispersion calculations. LAM50S Limited Area Model with 50 km grid squareswas DNMI’s operational NWP model in 1994 when ETEX took place.In this article we report on how SNAP performed in the first of the ETEX releases in near-real-time mode, using LAM50S—and in hindcast mode for ATMES II, using “ECMWF 1995: ETEX Data set (ATMES II)”as meteorological input data. These two input data sets came from NWP models with quite different characteristics but with similar resolution in time and space.The results from these dispersion simulations matched closely. Deviations early in the simulation period shrank to insignificant differences later on. Since both input data sets were based on “weather analysis” and had similar resolution in space and time, SNAP described the dispersion of the released material very similar in these two simulations.     

不同利用方式对江西省农田土壤碳氮磷生态化学计量特征的影响

根据江西省2013年采集的16582个农田耕层(0～20 cm)土壤样点数据,运用实地调查、经典统计学与地统计学等相结合方法,研究了江西省耕地土壤碳氮磷生态化学计量特征的空间变异性及不同农田利用方式对其的影响.研究结果表明:江西省耕地土壤有机碳(SOC)、全氮(TN)和全磷(TP)平均含量分别为17.90、1.58和0.52 g·kg~(-1),土壤碳氮比(C∶N)、碳磷比(C∶P)和氮磷比(N∶P)平均值分别为11.72、38.29和3.38,土壤C∶N∶P比平均值为34.44∶3.03∶1,说明P是江西省耕地土壤主要的限制因素.此外,由于碳、氮、磷三者之间并不存在显著的两两相关性,表明江西省耕地土壤中不存在稳定的"Redfield ratio";半方差函数表明,江西省土壤碳、氮、磷生态化学计量特征具有中等程度的空间变异性,其空间变异特征主要受到随机性因素的影响;经ANOVA检验显示,不同农田利用方式对土壤碳氮磷生态化学计量特征影响显著(p0.05),土壤SOC和TN平均含量依次表现为:两季水田水旱轮作一季水田一季旱地两季旱地,土壤TP平均含量依次表现为:两季旱地两季水田一季水田一季旱地水旱轮作,土壤C∶N依次表现为:两季水田两季旱地一季水田水旱轮作一季旱地,土壤C∶P平均值依次表现为:水旱轮作两季水田一季水田一季旱地两季旱地,土壤N∶P平均值依次表现为:水旱轮作一季旱地两季水田一季水田两季旱地.总体而言,土壤碳、氮、磷生态化学计量比的变化特征是农田利用方式和环境因子综合作用的结果,土壤C∶N∶P比对土壤碳、氮、磷储量及养分的限制性具有重要的指示作用.     

机场建设对鸟类的影响及机鸟相撞防范措施

机鸟相撞,轻则鸟死机伤,重则机毁人亡,一直是困扰着各国航空飞行安全的重大问题。根据近几年在机场类建设项目环境影响评价中的工作经验,本文就机场鸟类保护与机场建设及避免机鸟相撞问题做一探讨,认为机场鸟类保护与避免机鸟相撞首先在机场建设时要认真做好区域鸟类资源调查,避开候鸟迁徙通道,掌握鸟类活动规律,在机场营运期应积极采取生态措施、工程措施及有效的管理等措施避免鸟类对飞机的威胁,确保飞行安全。     

浅析大气环境与健康、疾病的关系

文章对造成大气污染的主要途径,如自然污染、人类活动以及气象条件对大气污染的影响进行了探讨,分析了能源使用、工农业生产过程、交通运输对大气的影响,浅析了大气污染与人类健康、人类疾病的关系,大气污染对呼吸系统、免疫系统,以及对细胞染色体和基因损伤方面的影响。